Derby dell’Appennino in Coppa Italia
Fiorentina and Bologna are both surprise contenders for a UEFA Champions League spot this season. The Viola are currently in fourth place in Serie A, while Bologna are just one point behind. On Tuesday, the two sides will face off in the Coppa Italia Quarter-finals as they chase silverware this season.
Neither team won over the weekend, so they should be motivated for this midweek match. Tuesday’s winner will take on either Atalanta or AC Milan in the Semifinal. We’ll preview the Fiorentina Bologna odds in this Derby dell’Appennino.
Location: Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence, Italy
In November, Fiorentina defeated Bologna 2-1 in a Serie A match in Florence as Giacomo Bonaventura and Nicolas Gonzalez scored for the hosts. Last season, Bologna picked up two 2-1 wins over Fiorentina which are their only two victories in the last 19 meetings. None of the last five meetings have finished in draws and these teams haven’t played each other in any Coppa Italia games since the 1998-99 Semifinal. There, Fiorentina advanced 4-2 on aggregate.
Sassuolo Snap Fiorentina Winning Streak
Fiorentina’s last four matches have all finished with 1-0 scorelines. The Viola were on the winning side in the first three but fell on Saturday at Sassuolo. Andrea Pinamonti opened up the scoring for the hosts in the ninth minute and Sassuolo appeared to have doubled their lead but VAR intervened for an offside.
In the second half, Fiorentina had a flurry of chances but couldn’t manage to get on the scoresheet. Andrea Consigli saved Fiorentina midfielder Giacomo Bonaventura’s penalty to preserve Sassuolo’s lead. Lucas Martinez Quarta also had a goal called back for offside in the Fiorentina loss.
Although Fiorentina haven’t scored much lately, their defensive performances have certainly been encouraging. Since a 2-0 loss to Empoli on October 23rd, Fiorentina have only conceded more than one goal in a match once. They also recently managed to win their UEFA Europa Conference League group.
Now, the Fiorentina Bologna odds price the Viola as +110 favorites for Tuesday’s Quarter-finals matchup on the Coppa Italia schedule. However, Nicolas Gonzalez, who is Fiorentina’s leading scorer this season, is out for Tuesday’s match due to injury.
Christian Kouame is also away on international duty with the Ivory Coast, while Riccardo Sottil and Gaetano Castrovili are also out injured. With Gonzalez out, expect Lucas Beltran to receive the nod here. The Argentine forward has scored five goals this season for Fiorentina, in all competitions. To reach the Quarter-finals, Fiorentina defeated Serie B side Parma in penalties after coming back from 2-0 down.
Bologna Getting it Done With Defense
After finishing in ninth place in Serie A last season, Bologna have been a surprise pick for soccer betting in 2023-24. Thiago Motta has done an excellent job as Bologna manager and they’re pushing for a Champions League spot this season. Over the weekend, Bologna fell behind 1-0 to Genoa in the first half of their Serie A matchup. Lorenzo De Silvestri’s late-game heroics preserved a draw for the hosts as he scored in the 95th minute.
Bologna have been one of Serie A’s best defensive teams this season. They’ve conceded just 16 goals in 19 matches and have lost just three times all season. To reach the Quarter-finals of the Coppa Italia, Bologna have had to defeat two fellow Serie A teams. Back in October, BFC took down Hellas Verona 2-0. Bologna pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the competition in the round of 16, by defeating Inter Milan 2-1 in extra time at the San Siro.
While Bologna have lost just twice on the road this season, they’ve also won just one 90-minute match. They’ve drawn seven times in ten road matches, in all competitions. Just in the last month alone, Bologna have defeated AS Roma, Atalanta and Inter Milan, though. Dutch forward Joshua Zirkzee is Bologna’s biggest threat and he’s scored seven times so far this season. Swiss winger Dan Ndoye is nursing a thigh injury and is unlikely to play on Tuesday.
Match Analysis & Odds
This certainly has the makings of a close match and the Fiorentina Bologna odds reflect that sentiment. Bettors should note that each of the last seven Derbies Dell’Appennino have finished level or been decided by a single goal. Here, Fiorentina pk, -0.5 sits at -120, while Bologna pk, +0.5 comes in at -110. Fiorentina haven’t lost at home for over two months and they did reach last year’s Coppa Italia final.
Still, the odds imply the Viola have less than a 50 percent implied chance of victory, in normal time at least. Fiorentina are +110 moneyline favorites, as Bologna are +245 underdogs. A draw is seen as reasonably likely, at +215 odds. Two 15-minute extra time periods will be played in the event of a draw. With both sides in Serie A action this weekend, they’ll want to get things done in 90 minutes.
For Tuesday’s match, over 2, 2.5 goals are priced at -115 odds even though Fiorentina’s matches have been incredibly low-scoring as of late. Only one of Bologna’s last five 90-minute games has finished with more than two goals as well. Neither team plays at a particularly fast pace, as they like to hold on to the ball.
For Coppa Italia odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
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