2024 La Liga Betting Predictions
Barça Kick Off Title Defense
Outrights and Top Four Odds Up
Xavi won eight La Liga championships as a player. The Barcelona manager also added a title to his trophy cabinet as a manager in 2022-23. Barcelona won their first league title in four years last season and will kick off their title defense next month. While Real Madrid are always contenders, it remains to be seen whether other teams will insert themselves in the title race. Regardless, we’ll look at the latest odds and some 2023-2024 La Liga betting predictions.
No Surprises at Top of Odds Board
Last season, Barcelona and Real Madrid were the top two teams in the Spanish La Liga standings. En route to the title, Barcelona conceded a hair over 0.5 goals per game. The title race wasn’t particularly close either, as Barcelona’s margin of victory was 10 points.
In the offseason, Barcelona added a couple of players on free transfers. They’ve recruited defender Iñigo Martinez from Athletic Club and Manchester City midfield legend Ilkay Gundogan. Longtime players Sergio Busquets and Jordi Alba also departed the club as Barça enter a new era.
Barcelona head into the 2023-24 season at +135 odds to successfully defend their title. Only bitter rivals Real Madrid show shorter odds. When Real Madrid and Barcelona meet in El Clasico, they’re usually some of the top La Liga matches of the season. Those rivalry matches could prove to be critical in what could be a close title race.
Real Madrid lost second all-time leading scorer Karim Benzema to the Saudi League. Still, they are +110 favorites to win a second La Liga crown in three seasons. Real did bring in Joselu to try to soften the blow but losing Benzema is a big deal.
Perhaps Rodrygo, who often lines up as a right winger, will get some time at striker. In any case, this will be Carlo Ancelotti’s last season as Real Madrid’s manager. He’ll be Brazil’s new manager after the 2023-24 season.
While Los Blancos lost some firepower up front, they strengthened their all-world midfield. Jude Bellingham joined Real Madrid from Borussia Dortmund in a record transfer for an English player. The highly talented 20-year-old was the Bundesliga’s Player of the Season in 2022-23. He joins a midfield that also includes Aurelien Tchouameni, Luka Modric, Toni Kroos and Fede Valverde.
Dark Horses/Strong Top Four Contenders
You’ll be hard-pressed to find 2024 La Liga betting predictions without Real Madrid and Barcelona in the top four. Real show -1200 odds to qualify for the Champions League through La Liga. Meanwhile, Barcelona come in at -800 odds to make the top four for a 21st straight season.
The last team other than Real Madrid or Barcelona to win La Liga was Atletico Madrid, and they last pulled it off in the 2020-21 season. Diego Simeone’s side are known for a hard-nosed brand of soccer and consistently have one of the top defenses in the league. They sit at +800 La Liga outright odds and -190 odds to make the top four again. Last season, Atleti finished just one point behind Real Madrid in the La Liga table.
There aren’t any other teams with a five percent or greater implied chance to win the league. Perhaps that’s justified, as a non-Barcelona, Real Madrid or Atletico team haven’t won the league since Valencia in 2003-04. Twenty years on, Sevilla will try to change that.
The 2023 Europa League winners stand at +2500 odds to win the league for the first time in nearly 80 years. They don’t have the financial fortitude of the teams ahead of them, which consistently hurts them. It seems the Sevilla side this season will largely be the same as the one that finished in 12th last season. However, they will have stability this season as Jose Luis Mendilibar is staying on as coach.
European Contenders
Real Sociedad were excellent in 2022-23 and snagged the last La Liga Champions League berth. The fourth-placed side were excellent defensively but could benefit from adding another goalscorer. Last season, Sociedad sold Alexander Isak to Newcastle and averaged under 1.5 goals per game. They show +4000 odds to win La Liga and +200 odds to finish in the top four for a second season running.
Villarreal are the only other team with +5000 odds or shorter to win La Liga this season. The 2024 La Liga betting predictions pin them down as strong European contenders but it’ll be an uphill battle to join the title race. Nicolas Jackson left Villarreal to join Chelsea this Summer and was the only player to score more than 10 La Liga goals last season. They display +5000 odds to win La Liga and +250 odds to make the top four for the first time since 2015-16.
The La Liga futures price both Real Betis and Athletic Club at +6600 odds to win the league. Athletic Bilbao do have the fourth-most titles in league history and won’t have European football this season. Still, they were far too inconsistent in 2023-24 even as Oihan Sancet emerged as one of the league’s top young players. Real Betis and Bilbao also both sit at +300 top-four odds. Athletic Club haven’t finished in the top four for 10 years, while Betis haven’t done it for almost 20.
Follow us on Twitter
