La Liga Matchday 27 Odds & Preview: Focus Shifts to Champions League Race
Runaway Title Favorites Barcelona Win El Clasico
Focus Shifts to Champions League Race
With Barcelona’s 2-1 El Clasico win over bitter rivals Real Madrid, the Catalan club took a 12-point lead with 12 matches to play. Only a meltdown could deny Barcelona the La Liga title this season, so focus will now shift to the race for the Champions League. While Barça and Real Madrid are shoe-ins for two of the top-four places, four clubs appear to be competing for the last two UCL places. Third-placed Atletico Madrid will host fifth-placed Real Betis on Sunday following a match between fourth-placed Real Sociedad and sixth-placed Villarreal. These crucial matches could shift the UCL race and we’ll see who the favorites are as we take a look at the La Liga Matchday 27 odds.
Matches of the Week
Villarreal vs Real Sociedad
Date & Time: Sunday, April 2nd, 12:30 p.m.
Villarreal can close the gap between them and Real Sociedad in the La Liga point table to four, should they win their match this Sunday. Despite an early exit in the UEFA Europa Conference League, Villarreal have won three of their last four La Liga matches.
Just before the international break, Quique Setien’s side managed a 3-0 road win over Osasuna. Jose Luis Morales scored a brace in the match and has been in excellent goal-scoring form over the last couple of months. He could start over Gerard Moreno, who he replaced in the Osasuna match following Moreno’s calf injury.
While Villarreal have climbed up the table in recent weeks, Real Sociedad are in danger of dropping out of the top four. The Txuri-Urdin have won just one of their last five La Liga matches and are now just three points ahead of Real Betis.
Sociedad did defeat last-placed Elche before the international break but haven’t defeated a team in the top ten since January. Sociedad did win the reverse fixture, 1-0, though as Brais Mendez scored the game’s only goal. Now, Sociedad are road underdogs but did win at Villarreal last La Liga season.
In this pick’em, Villarreal come in at -150 odds to cover, while Sociedad pk shows +130 odds. Villarreal haven’t won at home vs. Real Sociedad since 2018 either, but are +135 moneyline favorites here. A draw sits at +220 odds, while Sociedad aren’t far behind, at +225.
Both teams have scored in six of the last seven matchups as over two goals display -145 odds. Scoring has been an issue for Sociedad lately, though, as they’ve managed just four goals in their last five games.
Atletico Madrid vs Real Betis
Date & Time: Sunday, April 2nd, 3:00 p.m.
Atletico Madrid have now gone nearly three months without a loss in La Liga and have won their last three matches. During their winning streak, they’ve outscored their opponents 10-1 and Diego Simeone’s side are quite likely to return to the Champions League.
On 51 points, they currently have a six-point cushion over fifth-placed Real Betis. Betis can close the gap to three points with a crucial road win here, though. While Atletico hold a 10-game unbeaten streak heading into this one, Betis are without a loss in their last six. The La Liga Matchday 27 odds price Atletico Madrid as one-goal favorites for this one.
Simeone’s Atletico have enjoyed this fixture in recent seasons as they’ve gone seven meetings without a loss. Los Colchoneros have also won the last three meetings and Antoine Griezmann scored a brace in October’s 2-1 victory in Seville. Griezmann has played at a high level lately and scored in two of Atleti’s last three matches.
Griezmann is also La Liga’s current assist leader, with eight. One of the defenders tasked with shutting him down on Sunday, Luiz Felipe, has returned to training following an undisclosed injury. Felipe and Betis come in at -120 odds to cover the one-goal spread but are +490 moneyline underdogs. Meanwhile, Atletico Madrid show even odds to cover and -170 odds to get a fourth straight win.
This could end up being a defensive battle, as both teams have done a great job keeping their opponents out of the net recently. Atletico have conceded just twice in their last five games and Betis have allowed four goals in the same timeframe. The odds price both over and under 2.5 goals at -110 for Sunday’s match. Meanwhile, a draw displays +310 odds for this highly important match in the UCL race.
Other Important Matches
Elche vs Barcelona
Date & Time: Saturday, April 1st, 3:00 p.m.
First place takes on last place on Saturday as Barcelona head to Elche. It’ll take a miracle for Elche to avoid relegation as they’re currently 14 points from safety. In effect, that means they’d have to win five more games than their relegation rivals to stay alive, with just 11 games remaining.
Heading into Matchday 27, Elche have won just two games all season. The La Liga betting odds price Elche as massive +765 home underdogs when Barcelona come to town.
Elche have scored the fewest goals in the league, with just 19, and have conceded nearly two goals per game this season. Elche also haven’t defeated Barcelona since the 1974-75 season. In what could be a bit of a trap game, Barcelona enter the match as 1.5-goal favorites at even odds to cover.
Elche have lost their last four home matches vs Barcelona but did manage to keep the match within a one-goal margin last season. They are favored to cover the spread here as Elche +1.5 sits at -120 odds.
Barcelona have a few injuries and suspensions, which could make this a tricky match. Winger Raphinha is suspended, while Ousmane Dembele, Frenkie de Jong, Pedri, Andreas Christensen and Ronald Araujo are all day-to-day.
Still, Barça are -280 moneyline favorites and have won their last nine matches vs Elche, in all competitions. Elche’s often toothless attack is also taking a hit as Lucas Boye is suspended and leading scorer Pere Milla is injured.
Barcelona have also conceded just nine goals all season, so it’s no surprise that under three goals come in at -135 odds for the match. A draw would be an impressive result for Elche but it doesn’t do them any favors for avoiding the drop. A deadlock shows +425 odds for Saturday’s match.
Real Madrid vs Valladolid
Date & Time: Sunday, April 2nd, 10:15 a.m.
Real Madrid’s title chances took an overwhelming blow with their El Clasico loss a couple weeks ago. However, Los Blancos won the FIFA Club World Cup in February and still have a few more chances for silverware. They take on Chelsea in the Champions League quarterfinals later in April.
However, they hold a one-goal deficit heading into the second leg of their Copa del Rey semifinals fixture vs Barcelona. Before the second leg of the Copa del Rey, they’ll host Valladolid in La Liga. Valladolid are just two points outside of the relegation zone and are fighting for their lives in the top flight.
The La Liga Matchday 27 odds price Real as two-goal favorites for the match. Valladolid don’t have a win in this fixture since 2008 and Real have managed four shutout wins in the last four meetings. Real -2 and Valladolid +2 both come in at -110 odds.
While the spread is certainly contested and could make for a good bet, Real at -500 odds doesn’t appear to have too much value. Valladolid are listed at +1200 moneyline odds, while a draw sits at long +650 odds as well. Notably, Real Madrid have followed up their three previous La Liga losses this season with wins.
While Nacho is suspended and David Alaba still works his way back from injury, Real’s all-world midfield and attack are fully healthy for this one. That’s not the case for Valladolid, who could be missing forwards Darwin Machis, Gonzalo Plata and Kenedy.
Plus, Valladolid’s defense has been shaky as of late, as they’ve conceded 2.2 goals per game in their last five. With the over/under goals total set at 3.5, punters and oddsmakers are certainly expecting goals. However, the under comes in at -130 odds as Real look to bounce back.
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