Astros vs Red Sox Preview: Can The Astros Survive Multiple Setbacks?
The Reigning & Defending Champs Aren't Playing Like It
The Boston Red Sox are fighting for a spot in the AL Wild Card. They’re behind the Rays, Mariners, Rangers, Astros, and Blue Jays. However, there are only three AL Wild Card spots to go around.
Two of those teams mentioned above won’t make the playoffs. Right now, the Red Sox have the lowest probability. But that can change in their three-game series against the Astros.
If the Red Sox win a series against the Astros, they’ll inch closer in the AL Wild Card race.
Meanwhile, the Astros are in a different spot than usual. Houston is used to winning the AL West. However, Houston has trailed the Mariners for that AL West first-place spot over the last week.
We’re getting closer to the MLB Playoffs. Every game counts just a little bit more.
Here’s a look at the Astros vs Red Sox preview for the three-game series in the American League.
Astros vs Red Sox 
Day/Time:
Location: Fenway Park
Houston’s Setbacks Becoming a Problem
The Astros don’t look like the typical Astros.
The Red Sox and Astros split a two-game series on Wednesday and Thursday.
In the second game of the two, the Red Sox defeated the Astros 17-1 in embarrassing fashion.
The Red Sox added 17 runs on 24 hits and tagged the Astros with a 16-run margin that was tied for the largest in Astros history.
Houston hadn’t lost a game that bad since September 25, 2011, against the Rockies.
Then, on Friday, Framber Valdez threw seven no-hit innings against the Tigers, only for the Astros to lose that game on a Parker Meadows walk-off home run for the Tigers.
The bullpen collapsed after such a historic performance from Valdez.
The Astros are the defending World Champs. But they sure haven’t played like it this season. We’re almost in September, and the Astros are still clawing back to first place. The confidence level continues to dip with the Astros competing in the Major League Baseball wildcard standings.
Is Rafael Devers’ Wrist Injury Serious?
The Red Sox can’t afford to lose Rafael Devers.
Devers was scratched from his start against the Dodgers on Sunday with a wrist injury. It’s unclear how serious that injury is.
Devers had been listed in the initial lineup for the Red Sox before being scratched. Therefore, it doesn’t seem too serious. But it’s something to keep an eye on.
Devers has slugged a .272 average with 29 home runs and 88 RBIs. He’s 8th in the MLB in RBIs and has an OPS of .863, which is good for 17th in the league.
Devers has been healthy throughout his career. He played 156 games in 2021, 141 in 2022, and has already played 123 games in 2023. In all three of those years, he’s hit an OBP of at least .347 and an average of above .270 in all three seasons.
In a tight Wild Card race, the Red Sox must hope Devers can perform in this critical series against the Astros. They’re fighting for the American League Baseball 2023 standings and can’t fall too much down the standings if this team wants to play in the playoffs.
Let’s take a look at the probable pitchers in our Astros vs Red Sox preview for the American League three-game series.
⚾ Game 1 ⚾
Christian Javier vs Chris Sale
Christian Javier will get the start for the Astros. Javier has struggled throughout most of the season. In the last 30 days, the right-hander has allowed a .253 ISO and wOBA of .368. He’s only struck out 18.3% of batters while walking over 10%. He’s also induced just 25.6% of grounders while giving up over 46% of fly balls.
On top of that, Javier has given up 48.7% of hard contact and has allowed an 11.5% barrel percentage in the last 30 days.
Javier will face the veteran Chris Sale of the Red Sox. Sale is a lefty who has earned 33.3% of strikeouts against his last 57 batters. Sale has thrown just 67.67 pitches per start in the previous 30 days, but he’s held righties to a .152 ISO and wOBA of .270.
Still, he’ll have a tough time against Houston’s offense. The Astros have been extremely hot against lefties over the last month. The projected lineup has hit above a .280 ISO and wOBA of over .435 against lefties over the previous month. Only Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Pena have lacked power against lefties in the last 30 days. But we know what those two are capable of as well.
Meanwhile, Boston’s offense has looked incredible against right-handed batters. The Red Sox lineup has hit an ISO of .221 and wOBA of .376 against righties last month. Only Trevor Story has struggled to find much offense against righties.
The Red Sox sit at -130, with the Astros at +110 on the moneyline. However, I’m looking at the total for this Astros vs Red Sox preview.The total is at 10, with the Under juiced to -118. To me, there’s more value on the Over.
⚾ Game 2 ⚾
J.P. France vs Brayan Bello
It’ll be J.P. France for Game 2 of the Astros vs Red Sox preview. He’s looked great against left-handed hitters, but righties have slugged a .180 ISO and wOBA of .478 over the last 30 days. France hasn’t earned a high strikeout rate against righties and has given up 31.3% of line drives to his previous 118 batters.
Righties have hit over 57% of hard contact against righties over the last 30 days. He’s also earned under 10% of swinging strikes in the previous 30 days.
Houston’s lineup has not performed as well as it has against righties. The bottom portion of the lineup has struggled. Therefore, the projected lineup has hit a .296 wOBA against righties. Still, the Astros have worked close to 12% of walks against righties over the last 30 days, which is convincing.
Meanwhile, Brayan Bello will take the mound for the Red Sox. He’s struck out just 16.9% of batters in the last 30 days and has allowed a .357 wOBA to his previous 130 batters. Bello has limited extra-base hits and earned 53% of grounders last month. He’s been solid enough. I think he’s the better starter in this game. I’d give the Red Sox this one.
⚾ Game 3 ⚾
Framber Valdez vs Kutter Crawford
In the series finale, Framber Valdez is scheduled to get the start. Valdez has been hot and cold throughout the season. But right now, he’s hot. Valdez, a lefty, has allowed a .284 wOBA to his last 139 batters. He’s also induced over 58% of grounders while limiting fly balls to under 22%.
Valdez has also kept line drives to 17.8% over the last 30 days, which is good.
On the other hand, the Red Sox have just two batters in the projected lineup that have hit a high ISO and wOBA against lefties in the last 30 days. This lineup has also struck out over 29% of the time against lefties. The Red Sox are likely in trouble against Valdez in this one.
Boston will pitch Kutter Crawford to go up against Valdez. He’s been awful against lefties, allowing a .200 ISO and wOBA of .344 to his last 53 lefties. Those lefties have only hit 13.2% of grounders and 50% of fly balls. Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez should have fun. Back the Astros for best MLB bets today on Wednesday.
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