Brewers vs Twins Preview: Minnesota Looks to Extend Lead in AL Central

The Minnesota Twins will host the Milwaukee Brewers for a quick two-game interleague series starting Tuesday at Target Field. Despite a .500 record, the Twins have maintained their hold on first place in the American League Central.

Who will have the upper hand? Let’s break down the series in our Brewers vs Twins preview.

Milwaukee Has Eye on First

The Brewers are 34-32, just 1.0 game behind Pittsburgh for first place in the National League Central. Will they stay there, or maybe even overtake the Pirates atop the division?

With a run differential of minus-21, fourth-worst in the Central, the Brewers seem due for regression. That said, they are among the division’s most accomplished teams, with a former Cy Young winner in Corbin Burnes headlining their rotation. Plus, Pittsburgh has cooled off significantly, going just 14-21 since a 20-9 April.

Milwaukee is currently in a playoff spot, up a half game on San Francisco (33-32) in the MLB wild card standings. In that sense, the Brewers have some margin for error should Pittsburgh get hot again. The next few weeks will be pivotal, as the Brewers and Pirates meet six times, starting with a three-game set in Milwaukee on Friday.

The Brewers have struggled offensively, ranking 25th in runs scored (267), 27th in batting average (.229) and 25th in on-base percentage (.307). Their pitching has been average at best, sitting 13th in team ERA (4.06). That said, closer Devin Williams has been lights out, with only one run allowed in 21.2 innings. Williams owns a miniscule 0.42 ERA and is a perfect 10-for-10 in saves.

Minnesota Holding Firm

All five teams in the AL Central are .500 or worse, including the Twins, who are sitting in first place at 33-33. They’re 1.5 games ahead of Cleveland (31-34).

Numbers suggest they should stay in first: Minnesota is the only team in the Central with a positive run differential (plus-40). It’s also 12-8 against division opponents.

Whether it can though will largely depend on the health of its lineup. Outfielders Byron Buxton (ribs) and Joey Gallo (hamstring) and second baseman Jorge Polanco (hamstring) are all currently on the 10-Day Injured List. Shortstop Carlos Correa has missed time as well, dealing with a sore foot, but he’s back in the lineup. While Correa’s largely underperformed (.217 average, 8 HR, 29 RBI), he hit a go-ahead grand slam in Saturday’s 9-4 victory over the Blue Jays.

The Twins‘ pitching has done most of the heavy lifting. Their 3.52 ERA is the second-lowest in MLB, trailing only Houston (3.32). They’re first in WHIP (1.17), tied for second in strikeouts (625) and third in opponents batting average (.227). Right-hander Joe Ryan is 7-3 with a 2.90 ERA and has the second most quality starts with 10. Meanwhile, fellow right-hander Sonny Gray holds the third-lowest ERA in the bigs at 2.25.

Neither Ryan nor Gray is slated to pitch in our Brewers vs Twins preview.

Betting Market

Milwaukee owns a 29-37 record against the spread, sixth-worst in baseball. Minnesota has fared slightly better, going 32-34 ATS. Notably, the Twins are just 14-18 ATS at home.

It’s important to remember that when betting on MLB games.

Lopez, acquired from Miami in an offseason trade for NL batting champion Luis Arraez, is 3-3 with a 4.25 ERA. The 27-year-old right-hander is coming off a strong start against Tampa Bay, in which he allowed only one run over seven innings in a 2-1 loss.

He opposes Milwaukee ace Burnes, whose eight quality starts are fourth-most in baseball. Despite that, Burnes has seen his NL Cy Young odds drop from +500 to +5000. The 28-year-old right-hander is 5-4 with a 3.36 ERA and has 75 strikeouts in 77.2 innings.

The Twins do enter as short favorites however at -113 with Milwaukee a +103 underdog. The total currently sits at eight juiced toward the under at -125 with the over at +105.

Ober is 3-3 with a 2.61 ERA. He’s allowed only four home runs in 51.2 innings. Milwaukee has yet to name a starter for the getaway day game in our Brewers vs Twins preview.

For MLB betting news, analysis and more, visit pointspreads.com

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