Major League Baseball: AL West Odds Update
Without Much Help from deGrom, the Rangers Lead Astros by Three Games
It’s been entertaining checking MLB scores, particularly in the American League West this season. The Texas Rangers own the league’s top batting average (.271) which produces the most runs per game (6.30). Coupled with the team’s 27 quality starts, it makes for a tough combination for the test of the division. The Los Angeles Angels with their three-headed monster, featuring Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, and Hunter Renfroe average 4.82 runs per game. All this before we get to the defending champion Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners who are all in the plus in run differential. Outside of the American League East, the West is clearly the best division in baseball. Let’s continue our AL West betting preview with a look at the teams we think will be the best choice for a future wager followed by our updated betting numbers.
Astros Still Big Favorites to Win AL West
The Texas Rangers (+225) made all the sexy moves to close the gap between them and their state mate, but the truth is, the Houston Astros still have plenty of firepower to catch the Rangers.
Jose Altuve returned to the lineup this week to give the Astros a major lift after starting the season hitting just .245. That’s just three points off of last season’s pace but with the league going back to a more hitter-friendly defensive alignment teams like Houston should be thriving.
Expect Houston’s offense to take off when Michael Brantley returns from a shoulder injury in early June. On the year, Houston is 31-22 but that hasn’t produced a profit for bettors (-6 units) with high early season money lines as expected with a World Series champion.
Houston owns the best pitching staff in baseball and that’s exactly what will carry them to another division title and perhaps another AL Pennant (+350).
Rangers Won’t Win Division but Are Playoff Bound
Texas is -190 to make the playoffs which will likely happen through a wild card berth. We commend owner Ray Davis for going out and getting deGrom this past offseason along with former Los Angeles Dodger Corey Seager, and Marcus Semien in 202.
They re-signed 12-game winner Martin Perez and added Nathan Eovaldi. The Rangers own the 9th highest payroll in baseball (198.5 million) but that’s the price of winning. That jump in payroll has helped put them on apace to win 103 games, or 35 more than last.
Their division mate Oakland Athletics could learn from that one day if they ever figure out what town is going to build them a stadium. Las Vegas is the target but it doesn’t look like it’s going to be easy after last night’s public meeting with the Nevada Legislature that seemed to bring up more problems than solutions when it came to building the Athletics a Strip stadium.
At +50000 to win the division that’s enough talk about the John Fisher circus. The Los Angeles Angels are +700 followed by the Seattle Mariners +750. Even if the Astros ultimately win the division, both they and the Rangers own strong enough pitching to not run away and hide from each other making it an interesting Summer in the West.
Updated AL West Betting Stats
With the Tampa Bay Rays sitting at 39-17, it’s likely that the team with the most MLB wins this season won’t come from the West, but come playoff time, anything can happen and likely will. Texas and Houston are off to nice starts but let’s look at the numbers that really matter to bettors and that’s return on investment.
The Rangers are second in baseball with 834 units won, 91 units behind the Baltimore Orioles. They are the only team in the division to produce a profit, although a win tonight against the Minnesota Twins would put Houston (-6 units) in the black, The Angels (28-26) are -291 units, Seattle (28-25) -521 units, followed by Oakland (10-45) -2966 units. Let’s put a filter on this and see how that changes the landscape.
Betting big favorites isn’t our preference, so what happens when we put a -150 or less filter on the numbers? Texas is still tops with 366 units won (18-16) followed by Los Angeles -208 (18-21), Houston -216 (14-16), Seattle -462 (14-18), and Oakland -2766 (11-45). That says a lot about Texas who are also winning the tougher games while there’s a drop-off, for now, with the Astros who fell to third in the division. That does it for our AL West betting preview, we wish you the best with your wagers this Summer.
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