Mets vs Braves Betting Preview: NL East Rivalry Heating Up

The Atlanta Braves outlasted the New York Mets for the National League East title in 2022, winning the division on a tiebreaker after both teams finished 101-61. This season hasn’t been nearly as competitive though, as New York is still trying to recapture the form that made it one of baseball’s best teams a year ago.

At 35-24, Atlanta is sitting in first place in the NL East, 5.5 games up on the third-place Mets.

The division rivals will renew acquaintances for a three-game series starting Tuesday at Truist Park. Can New York trim the deficit, or will Atlanta continue to separate itself in the standings? Let’s take a closer look at the matchup in our Mets vs Braves betting preview.

Mets Bats Go Silent

The Mets managed only five runs during a three-game sweep against Toronto over the weekend while hitting .173 (17-for-98). It’s a continuation of a season-long issue for the Mets, who rank 20th in average (.241), 18th in runs scored (258), and 22nd in OPS (.713).

While New York’s pitching has been improved of late, the club remains among the biggest disappointments in baseball at 30-30. It’s certainly not what owner Steve Cohen had in mind when he raised payroll to a record $346 million this offseason.

Shortstop Francisco Lindor has been one of the team’s biggest underachievers, hitting a career-low .213 through 60 games. He still has 10 home runs and 40 RBI, showing strong run production, but the Mets and their fans certainly are expecting more from the four-time All-Star. Lindor is off to a 1-for-15 start at the plate this month and was booed on the team’s last homestand.

First baseman Pete Alonso remains New York’s biggest source, with an MLB-leading 21 homers this season. He also has 47 RBI, third-most in baseball behind Houston designated hitter Yordan Alvarez, Texas outfielder Adolis Garcia (both with 51), and Boston third baseman Rafael Devers (49).

Bright Outlook for Atlanta

Despite injuries to starting pitchers Max Fried (forearm) and Kyle Wright (shoulder), Atlanta has mostly lived up to expectations. The first-place Braves currently own the best record in the NL and at +600 are favorites to win the World Series, alongside the Dodgers, Astros, and Rays. The Braves are also -450 to defend their NL East crown and are +225 co-favorites to win the NL, matching Los Angeles.

Outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. has had a big hand in Atlanta’s success. He is batting .331 with 12 homers and 32 RBI, positioning himself to win his first Most Valuable Player award. Acuna Jr. ranks second in baseball in both runs scored (52) and stolen bases (26), third in OPS (.971), and fourth in hits (78).

Acuna Jr. has plenty of help, too. The addition of All-Star catcher Sean Murphy (.289, 11 HR, 38 RBI) has paid off in a big way for the Braves, who rank third in baseball with 97 home runs. That number should only continue to rise as the MLB weather warms up.

Game 1

The 24-year-old Elder has been one of baseball’s best young starters, with a major league-leading 1.92 ERA. He’s allowed only four home runs in 65.2 innings. Elder will oppose Carrasco, who is 2-2 with a 5.74 ERA. He’s recorded a 3.57 ERA in three starts since coming off the 10-day Injured List last month with elbow inflammation.

Atlanta is -1.5 (+120) on the run line and a -155 favorite to win outright, with New York priced at +135. The projected total is 9.5 in the Mets vs Braves betting preview.

Game 2

The 39-year-old Morton allowed four runs over 5.1 innings in a 5-3 loss to the Mets on May 1. He is 5-6 with a 3.62 ERA on the season.

Scherzer has been back to form since returning from a 10-day sticky stuff suspension, allowing just four runs (three earned) in 25 innings over his last four starts. He’s struck out 28 batters during that span and is 5-2 with a 3.21 ERA on the season.

Game 3

Strider, a runner-up for NL Rookie of the Year in 2022, leads the majors with 113 strikeouts in 69.2 innings.The 24-year-old right-hander is 6-2 with a 2.97 ERA, though he struggled (5 innings, 4 runs) in a 9-8 win over New York on May 1. Keep that in mind when assessing the odds in our Mets vs Braves betting preview.

Verlander, meanwhile, is 2-3 with a 4.25 ERA after missing all of April with a low-grade muscle strain near his pitching shoulder. Home runs (six allowed in 36 innings) have been an issue for the three-time Cy Young Award winner.

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