The Baltimore Orioles (93-56) head to Houston, Texas to take on the Astros (84-66) a day after clinching a playoff berth when the Texas Rangers lost to the Cleveland Guardians during their 5-4 (11) win against the Tampa Bay Rays. The O’s will send John Means (0-1, 5.40) to the hill against Justin Verlander (11-8, 3.39) for Houston to start their 3-game series. Houston is a -160 home favorite with a total of 8.5. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 pm ET / 5:10 pm PT and can be seen on MASN and ATSW. Let’s dive into our Orioles vs Astros preview and look at both teams from a gambling perspective.
Orioles Split With Rays, Maintains AL East Lead
If you win the American League East, you will carry home-field advantage with you throughout the playoffs. The Orioles dropped the first two games of their massive four-game set with the Tampa Bay Rays to fall back into a tie in the current MLB standings, but an 8-0 and a 5-4 (11) win to end the series sent Baltimore to Houston exactly where they started the weekend series. Baltimore owns a 9.5-game lead on Houston for home-field advantage in the American League, it’s critical that the Astros send a psychological message starting tonight.
For bettors, no team has been better than the O’s who have now cleared a profit of 25.92 units this season. The next closest team is the Cincinnati Reds at +13.90 units. As an underdog, Baltimore is 41-32, +16.39 units overall, and 28-20, +1531 units as a road dog. Only the Washington Nationals have been better as a road dog (+16.48 units). But as we continue our Orioles vs Astros preview, the side isn’t where our money is going tonight.
Houston Sleepwalking Towards Title
Even though we were lucky enough to land one of the Kansas City Royals wins this weekend at a sweet plus price, there is no way the Kansas City Royals and the Oakland Athletics should have been able to take four of six games from the Astros over their last two series.
We maintain that winning MLB predictions are not hard to find, but beating the moneyline is. Throughout Houston’s last two series, a $100 bettor would have lost 3.21 units off their bankroll, and even worse if one was betting to win a $100 (-7.40 units).
This is why we preach at least staying under an average of -150 throughout the season. Despite being on the verge of their sixth division title in six seasons, the Astros have been one of the most difficult teams to bet on when favored (-13.46 units). That comes being a -140 favorite or more 78 times, which produced -12.39 units lost even with a 43-35 record.
Baseball scores are tough to predict, but we conclude our Orioles vs Astros preview while attempting to do just that.
Public Sets Up For Failure
You can predict it from a mile away. Anytime the Joes see Justin Verlander’s name on the probable list, the under money will flow in. Today’s betting pattern is falling in line with some smaller books opening this game up at 9, but that was quickly pounded down to our current consensus number of 8.5. Over 92% of the dollars wagered are on the under while 59% of the tickets bet are over tickets. This simply means the big money is outspending the public’s greater amount of wagers.
Our pitching match-up tonight creates a too-easy scenario that we’re going against. In Verlander’s career, the under is 259-223 (+17.88 units), and 39-25 (+11.56 units) when Means takes the ball. We learned a long time ago in betting that opposites which is why we’re betting over the total of 8.5. That does it for our Orioles vs Astros preview, we wish you all the best with your late-season MLB wagers.
Want more articles like this? Check these out:
- Phillies vs Braves Odds: Acuna’s Game 1 Status in NL East Series?
- MLB: Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks Odds Preview
- Reds vs Mets Odds: Can The Mets Play Spoiler Versus The Surprising Reds?
- Red Sox vs Blue Jays Preview: Toronto Hits Slump at Worst Time
- Rangers vs Guardians Betting Preview: Texas in Thick of Playoff Race