MLB Winter Meetings Recap: How Have Big Moves Shifted Odds?
With Soto, Yankees Look Much More Formidable
Big Business About to Get Much Bigger!
While the baseball world still waits on the news of where Shohei Ohtani will be playing next season (and beyond), there was still some significant baseball player movement at this past week’s MLB Winter Meetings that have already had a significant effect on World Series odds across the league. Of course, Ohtani’s decision — and that of his countryman Yoshinobu Yamamoto — will shake things up even more.
The headline move was the New York Yankees making their long-rumored push for Juan Soto, grabbing the All-Star outfielder (along with Trent Grisham) from the San Diego Padres for a pitching-centric return led by swingman Michael King.
After an extremely disappointing 2023 season in which they went 82-80, New York needed to make a big splash to help out their MLB scores and odds and to appease an angry fanbase. It’s fair to say that adding Soto, even though he’s a free agent after the 2024 season, goes a long way toward doing that.
With the trades for Soto, Grisham and fellow outfielder Alex Verdugo, New York has quickly revamped a relatively disappointing outfield group into a very strong one with a bunch of legitimate MLB options outside of the superstars in Aaron Judge and Soto.
So, it’s not a surprise that the Yankees’ World Series odds are all the way down to +900, which is currently the fourth-best mark in baseball. That’s a far cry from being +1600 to win it all, which is where the Yankees were at the start of the offseason. They still have a lot of work to do — particularly in the rotation — but it’s a great start to the winter for New York.
Another big move from the past couple of days was the reigning NL champion Arizona Diamondbacks signing starting pitcher Eduardo Rodríguez to a lucrative four-year deal after he had a very strong season for the Detroit Tigers.
Mid Markets Looking to Make Big Splash
Arizona braved a brutal playoff MLB schedule to make the World Series and has been in desperate need of additional starting pitching help behind Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly so Rodríguez is a great addition for the exciting and young Diamondbacks.
Interestingly, their odds to win it all have gotten worse over the past few weeks, going from +2200 to +2800, as it has become more likely that the divison rival Los Angeles Dodgers — or even the San Francisco Giants — could land Ohtani. Vegas and the public don’t love them.
There hasn’t been much movement in the MLB predictions for much of the upper-echelon of current contenders as the Atlanta Braves (+700), Los Angeles Dodgers (+800), Houston Astros (+800), Philadelphia Phillies (+1000) and Texas Rangers (+1000) have all had their odds to win the World Series stay the same throughout the offseason up until this point.
The ATL Busting a Move, More to Come?
Atlanta has made some solid bullpen signings and added Jarred Kelenic as an outfield bat, Philadelphia re-signed starter Aaron Nola and the Dodgers and Astros have made some bench pickups but, so far, none of those MLB teams have made big splashes.
The Baltimore Orioles added to their bullpen at the MLB Winter Meetings with veteran closer Craig Kimbrel — who could replace the injured Félix Bautista — but they too, and the Toronto Blue Jays are still at +1600 to win it all.
Unsurprisingly, the one team with a marked decline in its World Series odds is the Padres who, with the Soto trade, have signaled that they might be taking a step back in 2024.
They’re still a very talented group that should contend for a Wild Card spot yet, after their own underachieving 82-80 campaign in 2023, San Diego is offloading star talent instead of adding it.
The Padres, under new manager Mike Shildt, are all the way down to +2800 to win the World Series after being at +2200 in early November.
We Know the Contenders, At Least We Think We Do!
They’ve traded Soto, lost Nick Martinez to the Cincinnati Reds and have a ton of other pending free agents like Blake Snell, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo and Josh Hader. There are just a lot of question marks surrounding San Diego right now and only more were added at the MLB Winter Meetings.
Of course, many of these teams’ odds will shift again as more transactions trickle in over the next few days and weeks. Once the Ohtani news is announced, we could see the free agent and trade backlog work itself out as teams like it usually does when the off-season’s biggest fish picks his new spot.
But, barring a truly shocking blockbuster — like Ohtani going to the Blue Jays or another star getting traded — the contenders are who they are at this point.
For MLB betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
