Padres vs Phillies Betting Odds: NLCS Rematch to Open Second Half
Phils Own Third-Worst Record in MLB Against the Run Line (37-52)
Some nine months after meeting in the National League Championship Series, the Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres are teetering on the outside of the playoff picture. Both struggled to gain much traction in the season’s first half, generating more questions than answers about their long-term outlook.
Next up is a pivotal four-game series between the clubs at Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park. San Diego is a -122 favorite to win outright in Friday’s opener. Philadelphia is priced at +112. The projected total is 9 -125/+105. Read on as we assess the Padres vs Phillies betting odds.
It’s Now or Never for San Diego
Can the San Diego Padres avoid being one of baseball’s biggest disappointments? At 43-47, the Padres are in a precarious position. They sit fourth in the NL West and 6.0 games out of the Wild Card, according to the Major League Baseball standings. The Padres closed the season’s first half strong, going 5-1 against the Angels and Mets. However, they’ve yet to play well over an extended stretch. That’s, of course, what it will take for them to make it back to the postseason.
At the moment, oddsmakers are pessimistic. San Diego is now -400 to miss the postseason. Given the expectations in spring training (+1000 to win the World Series), that’s eye-opening.
Fortunately for San Diego, third baseman Manny Machado appears to be heating up. Machado hit .478 with four home runs, 13 RBI and a 1.599 OPS from July 3-9 to win NL Player of the Week. After a poor start to the season, Machado has raised his average to .261 to go with 15 homers and 49 RBI. That’s obviously good news for the Padres, who will continue to rely heavily on the six-time All-Star to produce.
For the most part, the Padres’ offense has been underwhelming. They’re tied for 17th in runs and are 16th in OPS. It’s not quite what San Diego’s front office had in mind when it raised payroll to a whopping $246 million, third-highest in MLB behind the Mets and Yankees.
Philly Trending Up
Is Philadelphia due for another late-season surge? The Phillies won nine of their final 13 games heading into the All-Star break. At 48-41, the Phillies are third in the NL East, 12.0 games behind the first-place Braves. However, they trail the Giants by just a half-game for the third and final Wild Card spot. With series against San Diego and Milwaukee to open the second half, the Phillies will have an opportunity to make up more ground in a hurry.
All-Star outfielder Nick Castellanos has been key to Philadelphia’s resurgence. He’s rebounded from a tough first season in Philadelphia to hit .301 with 13 homers and an .840 OPS. He’s also driven in 55 runs, tied for 23rd among the MLB RBI leaders.
Castellanos was among baseball’s hottest hitters in June, batting .351 with five homers and 21 RBI in 97 at-bats. Though he’s cooled off to start July (.235 average), Castellanos remains a significant part of the Phillies’ late-season plans, in addition to the Padres vs Phillies betting odds.
Odds Outlook
The Phillies have been one of the least profitable MLB teams against the run line. Their 37-52 record ATS is third-worst in baseball behind only the Mets (37-53) and Royals (31-60). That includes a woeful 12-26 mark at home.
San Diego has been only slightly better, with a 44-46 record ATS. That’s important to remember as you assess the Padres vs Phillies betting odds.
Game 1
- Christopher Sanchez vs Yu Darvish (Friday, 6:05 p.m. ET)
Sanchez has pitched fairly well since joining the rotation in mid-June, allowing only six runs (five earned) over 21 innings. The left-hander has a 2.84 ERA on the season.
Sanchez will oppose Darvish, who is 5-6 with a 4.87 ERA. Darvish looked rusty in his last before the All-Star break, July 7 against the Mets, allowing three runs in five innings. He’d been out since June 21 with a non-COVID illness.
Game 2
- Taijuan Walker vs Blake Snell (Saturday, 1:05 p.m. ET)
After a dismal start to his Phillies tenure, Walker was terrific in June. He recorded a 1.50 ERA in six starts, while opponents hit only .171. Altogether, the right-hander has won his last six starts and is 10-3 with a 4.02 ERA.
San Diego plans to counter with Snell, who is 6-7 with a 2.85 ERA. The southpaw is tied for fourth in MLB with 132 strikeouts and has joined the conversation for NL Cy Young. He’s currently +1000 to win, trailing Zac Gallen (+200), Clayton Kershaw (+350) and Spencer Strider (+350).
Game 3
- Ranger Suarez vs TBD (Saturday, 7:05 p.m. ET)
Suarez owns a 3.77 ERA in 11 starts since returning from the injured list on May 13. San Diego has yet to name a starter.
Game 4
- Zack Wheeler vs Seth Lugo (Sunday, 1:35 p.m. ET)
Wheeler was tagged for seven runs in 11 innings over his last two starts before the All-Star break. For the season, he owns a modest 4.05 ERA with 119 strikeouts.
He will face his former Mets teammate, Lugo, who is 3-4 with a 3.39 ERA after transitioning back to the rotation this season.
For Padres vs Phillies standings, MLB betting odds, analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
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