Rays vs Royals Game Preview: AL-Best Rays Hope to Get Healthy Against Woeful KC
Last-place Royals an MLB-worst 31-60 against the run line
The Tampa Bay Rays will open MLB’s second half at home against the last-place Kansas City Royals. The three-game series is scheduled to begin Friday at Tropicana Field.
For the opener, Tampa Bay is -1.5 (-170) on the run line and a -300 favorite to win outright. Kansas City is priced at +240. The projected total is 9 juiced to the over at -113. Read on as we break down the odds in our Rays vs Royals game preview.
Bottom of the Heap
The Kansas City Royals are bad. Better yet, they’re woeful.
At 26-65, they own MLB’s second-worst win percentage (.286). They’ve also been outscored by 155 runs. Only the Athletics, with a minus-248 run differential, have routinely lost by more. In the process, they’ve amassed baseball’s third-worst ERA (5.27) and fourth-worst batting average (.232), proving equally bad at-bat and on the mound.
Is there any hope for Kansas City? Not really. At least not in 2023. The Royals have already traded one key contributor, shipping reliever Aroldis Chapman to Texas last month, and they’ll likely sell off a few more pieces over the next few weeks ahead of the trade deadline. Closer Scott Barlow is expected to be dealt. Catcher Sal Perez, an eight-time All-Star and franchise icon, may be a goner too.
Kansas City is 24.0 games back in the MLB Wild Card standings, a lock to miss the postseason for the eighth straight year. There’s no upside here, especially when factoring in the Royals vs Rays standings.
TB Still Going Strong
Despite losing seven of eight before the All-Star break, the Tampa Bay Rays entered today’s MLB schedule in good standing. They still own the AL’s best record at 58-35. Sure, their AL East lead over Baltimore has shrunk to 2.0 games, but there’s little reason to worry.
The Rays are still a -220 favorite in the division. They’re the oddsmakers’ pick to win the AL, too (+250).
Despite their recent slide, the Rays rank second in baseball in runs, third in home runs, and sixth in average. They’ve been just as impressive on the mound, registering the fourth-best ERA. However, much of that will depend on the status of ace left-hander Shane McClanahan, who is currently shelved with back tightness. McClanahan last pitched on June 30 against Seattle.
Notably, Tampa Bay and Kansas City split a four-game series at Kauffman Stadium last month.
Odds Outlook
With a record of 31-60 against the run line, Kansas City has been baseball’s least profitable team for bettors. Kansas City is also an MLB-worst 13-31 ATS at home, including 12-18 as an underdog.
Tampa Bay has fared much better, going 49-44 ATS. That includes a 40-39 mark when favored. Remember that as you break down the odds in our Rays vs Royals game preview.
Game 1
- Alec Marsh vs Tyler Glasnow (Friday, 8:10 p.m. ET)
Marsh has been tagged for eight runs (seven earned) in nine innings across his first two starts. He’s also issued seven walks.
The Rays will presumably counter with Glasnow, who owns a 4.10 ERA in eight starts since returning May 27 from the injured list. Glasnow left Friday’s start against Atlanta with cramping in both his hands and legs. However, he’s not expected to miss any time. Notably, he allowed one run while striking out a season-high 12 in a 3-1 win over Kansas City on June 25.
Game 2
- Jordan Lyles vs Zach Eflin (Saturday, 7:10 p.m. ET)
Lyles has been arguably baseball’s worst pitcher, going 1-11 with a 6.42 ERA. He leads the majors in losses and has surrendered the third-most home runs (20). His only victory, ironically, came June 24 against Tampa Bay. The 32-year-old right-hander allowed four runs over six innings in a 9-4 win.
His counterpart, Eflin, is 10-4 with a 3.25 ERA. He pitched six innings in an 11-3 victory over Kansas City on June 23, allowing three runs.
Game 3
- Brady Singer vs Shane McClanahan (Sunday, 2:10 p.m. ET)
Singer has struggled to replicate last season’s success (3.23 ERA), going 5-8 with a 5.80 ERA. The former first-round pick has the lowest strikeout rate (7.3 K/9) of his career.
McClanahan, the MLB co-leader in wins with 11, is currently penciled in to return from the IL. The left-hander also ranks second with a 2.53 ERA but has seen his AL Cy Young odds drop to +1000, tied for fifth behind Framber Valdez (+200), Kevin Gausman (+350), Gerrit Cole (+400) and Nathan Eovaldi (+900). Check McClanahan’s status while assessing the odds in our Rays vs Royals game preview.
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