No. 1 Houston Heavy Big 12 Tournament Favorite, Iowa St. Lurking

The Big 12 Conference Tournament tips off Tuesday at T-Mobile Arena in Kansas City, Mo.

Top-seeded Houston is the overwhelming favorite at -135, the only team in the field with better than plus odds. But the Cougars should face strong competition from the likes of Iowa State and Baylor. Texas is the defending champion.

The top four seeds all received byes to Thursday’s quarterfinals. The title game is slated for Saturday at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN, with the winner earning an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.

What can bettors expect? Read on as we break down the 2024 Big 12 Conference odds and assess each team’s chance of cutting down the nets in Kansas City.

THE FAVORITE

Houston (-135)

Houston is a heavy favorite, and with good reason. The Cougars top all the polls, ranking first in the AP Top 25, NET and KenPom ratings. They are 28-3, including 15-3 in the Big 12 Conference, and own an NCAA-high 13 Quad 1 wins.

Because of that, Houston is also +140 to make the Final Four and +600 to win the national championship, the second shortest title odds behind No. 3 UConn (+500). Keep that in mind when making your NCAAB picks.

The Cougars are on a nine-game win streak and could potentially lock up the NCAA Tournament’s top overall seed with three more victories this week. Either way, they are a lock to be one of four No. 1s on Selection Sunday.

Led by likely Big 12 Player of the Year Jamal Shead, Houston is built to smother opponents with size, length, and physicality. It is tenacious defensively, ranking first in adjusted defensive efficiency and scoring defense (56.9 PPG) and second in opponents’ shooting (38.3%).

It is title or bust for the Cougars.

TOP CONTENDER

Iowa State (+280)

Picked to finish seventh in the preseason poll, Iowa State defied odds by going 13-5 in Big 12 play. At 24-7, including a signature win over Houston, the Cyclones are ranked No. 6 in the AP NCAA basketball rankings.

That’s good enough to land T.J. Otzelberger serious consideration for national coach of the year.

Iowa State is talented offensively, but like Houston, its real strength is on the other end of the floor. The Cyclones might have the nation’s next-best defense, ranking second in adjusted defensive efficiency, fourth in steal percentage (10.4) and fifth in opponents’ scoring (62.1).

A Big 12 title isn’t out of the question.

OUTSIDE LOOKING IN

Baylor (+800)

Baylor has arguably the best freshman in the country in Ja’Kobe Walter, on whom Scott Drew will continue to rely heavily. Walter, the team’s leading scorer (14.7), has averaged 38.8 minutes over the last five games.

The Bears (22-9, 11-7) are ranked 11th in the AP poll but sputtered down the stretch, going 3-3 in their last six games.

Is that a slight hiccup or a cause for genuine concern?

As a No. 3 seed, the Bears have a reasonable path through the bracket, but only if Walter and point guard RayJ Dennis, the reigning MAC Player of the Year at Toledo, continue to step up.

Kansas (+1200)

Add Hunter Dickinson’s injury to the growing list of concerns for No. 14 Kansas. Dickinson dislocated his shoulder in Saturday’s 30-point loss to Houston, further clouding the Jayhawks’ postseason prospects.

With Kevin McCullar Jr. (knee) also banged up, Bill Self would be wise to use this tournament as an opportunity to get healthy for the Big Dance. There’s only so much to gain by going full-throttle this week.

Given all that uncertainty, Kansas (22-9, 10-8) is awfully difficult to trust, especially as the No. 6 seed.

BYU (+1500)

It’s been a smooth transition to the Big 12 for Mark Pope and Co. BYU (22-9, 10-8) won 20 games for the fourth time in five college basketball seasons and climbed to No. 12 in the AP poll. As such, the Cougars — now ranked 20th — are a lock to go dancing for the first time since 2021.

BYU is among the country’s most balanced college basketball teams, ranking top 45 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. It is also 20th in scoring (82.2) and third in assist rate (18.7).

The biggest obstacle is that as the fifth seed, BYU needs to win four games in four games. That’s a lot to ask in a conference this deep.

LONGSHOTS

Texas Tech (+2000)

Texas Tech won its last three games to lock up a No. 4 seed and a coveted bye to Thursday’s quarterfinals. Despite that, the Red Raiders (22-9, 11-7) aren’t getting much respect from the oddsmakers. At 20/1, they’re closer to being a longshot than legitimate contenders.

The Red Raiders may go as far as their veteran backcourt takes them. Pop Isaacs was impressive in Saturday’s upset of Baylor, scoring a game-high 20 points on three 3-pointers.

Texas (+3000)

As the No. 7 seed, Texas faces a difficult road to repeat. The Longhorns (20-11, 9-9) must win four straight games, starting with Wednesday’s second-round matchup against Kansas State.

The Longhorns have been streaky, if not a bit underwhelming at times, but their ceiling remains quite high.

With Max Abmas and Dylan Disu, the Longhorns figure to be a trendy longshot play at 30/1 2024 Big 12 Conference odds.

TCU (+6500)

TCU faded down the stretch, dropping four of its last six college basketball games to fall to the No. 8 seed. It will No. 9 Oklahoma in the second round.

The Horned Frogs (20-11, 9-9) were ranked as high as 20th in the AP poll but haven’t been able to recapture that form.

Being squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble, they will need every win they can get to boost their resume for the selection committee.

Remaining 2024 Big 12 Conference odds:

• Oklahoma (+10000)
• Cincinnati (+20000)
• Kansas State (+30000)
• UCF (+50000)
• West Virginia (+100000)
• Oklahoma State (+100000)

For NCAAB public betting odds, analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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