UConn 6.5-Point Favorite Over Purdue in NCAA Men’s Title Game

NCAAB Men's Final Odds: UConn 11-0 ATS in NCAAT Since 2022

The stage is set. No. 1 seeds UConn and Purdue will meet in the men’s national championship game on Monday (9:20 p.m. ET) at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz. It is the 10th matchup between No. 1 seeds for the NCAA title and the first since 2021 when Baylor bested Gonzaga 86-70.

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NCAA public betting odds have UConn as a 6.5-point favorite (-115) and -305 on the moneyline, with Purdue priced +245 to pull off the upset. Meanwhile, the projected total is 145 with a slight edge to the Under at -112.

What should bettors expect? Read on as we break down both teams and assess the NCAA men’s final odds in our championship game preview.

NCAA National Championship Game

Boilermakers logo Boilermakers vs Huskies Huskies logo

Day/Time:
Location: State Farm Stadium; Glendale, Ariz.
Streaming: TBS

Boilermakers vs Huskies Betting Trends

The Purdue Boilermakers are 21-15-2 against the spread, including 5-0 in the NCAA Tournament. A majority of Purdue’s games have trended toward the Over, as the Boilermakers are 23-15 against the Over/Under.

Meanwhile, the UConn Huskies have covered in 11 of their last 12 college basketball games and are 27-12 ATS. As for the Over/Under, the Huskies are just 16-22-1.

Be sure to remember these betting trends when assessing the NCAAB men’s final odds.

Edey, Purdue Look for Upset

Is the wait finally over for Purdue? This is the Boilermakers’ first appearance in the NCAA title game since 1969, when they lost to UCLA.

The Boilermakers (34-4) have lived up to form as a No. 1 seed, winning their five tournament games by an average of 19.6 points. Four of those victories came by double digits, except for a 72-66 win over No. 2 seed Tennessee in the Elite Eight. As such, Matt Painter’s team is 5-0 ATS in the tournament and 6-3 over its last nine games.

Purdue went wire-to-wire in its 63-50 victory over 11th-seeded NC State in the Final Four, outrebounding the Wolfpack 41-28 while holding them to 36.8% shooting. Two-time Naismith Player of the Year Zach Edey finished with 20 points and 12 rebounds, his eighth consecutive double-double and 10th in 11 games.

The 7-foot-4 Edey ranks first in the country in scoring (24.9 PPG), third in rebounding (12.2) and 16th in field goal percentage (62.5).

Averaging 82.9 points, Purdue ranks third in adjusted offensive efficiency and 12th in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Purdue has been an underdog just twice this college basketball season and is 2-0 OU in those games. It beat Arizona (-2) 92-84 on Dec. 16 and Illinois (-2.5) 77-71 on March 5.

Repeat Nearly Complete

UConn is on the brink of history, needing just one more to become the first program since Florida in 2007 to win back-to-back national championships. The Huskies (36-3) have blitzed opponents in the NCAA bracket, winning its five games by an average of 25 points.

The Huskies have also covered in 11 straight NCAA Tournament games since a first-round loss to New Mexico State in 2022.

The Huskies looked nearly flawless in their national semifinal win over fourth-seeded Alabama, shooting 50% from the field while committing only four turnovers. Averaging 81.6 points, Dan Hurley’s team ranks first in adjusted offensive efficiency and fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency.

The 7-2 Donovan Clingan has been instrumental in that success, averaging 16.2 points, 9.0 rebounds and 3.6 blocks while shooting 64.8% in the tournament. As such, Clingan has climbed to +225 to win Most Outstanding Player of the tournament, the best odds of anyone outside of Edey (+210).

As a favorite, UConn is in familiar territory. The Huskies are 27-12 ATS, including 13-3 when favored by single digits. The only time they were underdogs was a 69-65 loss to Kansas on Dec. 1. Keep that in mind when analyzing the NCAAB men’s final odds.


Handicapping the Game

UConn and Purdue have been the country’s two best college basketball teams for a majority of the season, so it’s only fitting that they meet with a national championship at stake. Edey has been a force for Purdue, but he hasn’t faced many centers quite like Clingan, a superb shot blocker and rim protector.

That could elevate the pressure on Purdue guards Braden Smith, Lance Jones and Fletcher Loyer to produce. The trio struggled against NC State, combining for eight turnovers. Obviously, that type of performance won’t cut it against the Huskies, who have dominated in nearly every facet.

Edey may be just what the Boilermakers need to put them over the top, but it’s hard to bet against the Huskies.

For college basketball scores today, betting odds, analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.


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