Vanderbilt 2023 Future Odds
Return of Quarterback AJ Swann Should Give Vanderbilt Explosive Offense
Early Schedule Boosts Vanderbilt’s Confidence
There was enough progress at Vanderbilt for head coach Clark Lea to receive a contract extension after taking a program that went 5-28 over three seasons and matching that with five wins in 2022. The 2023 Vanderbilt Commodores odds list the Commodores (+15000) with the longest odds to win the SEC East Division. However, back-to-back wins over Kentucky and Florida showed that better times could be coming.
One issue with Vanderbilt is the challenge of bringing in transfers due to the rigid academic standards. The Commodores rank 14th out of 14 SEC teams in the 247sports.com incoming transfer ratings. Vanderbilt is also last in the SEC rankings for incoming freshmen, so the growth that the Commodores showed in 2022 didn’t translate to the recruiting trail just yet.
The season begins with a home game against Hawaii on Aug. 26. The college football spreads currently have Vanderbilt listed as the 18-point favorite. That is the largest spread in favor of Vanderbilt against a Football Bowl Subdivision team since the Commodores were 20-point favorites against UAB in 2013.
Swann to Get Passing Grades
Vanderbilt hasn’t had a quarterback finish in the top five in the SEC in passing yards per game since Kyle Shurmur in 2017. Could that change with AJ Swann returning for his sophomore season? Certainly, Swann’s play as a true freshman has an impact on the 2023 Vanderbilt Commodores odds.
Swann completed 58% of his passes for 2,248 yards to go with 22 touchdowns and six interceptions. He did struggle against the elite teams with no touchdowns in blowout losses to Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee.
Will Sheppard, Jayden McGowan, and Quincy Skinner all return after combining for 14 TD receptions and the offensive line has plenty of returning players. Losing running back Ray Davis leaves some big shoes to fill.
The offense will need to be explosive since the defense allowed more yards per offensive play (6.95) than any other SEC team. The Commodores gave up more plays of 40, 50, 60, and 70 yards than any of their conference rivals.
National Championships Odds: Let’s Not Get Carried Away
Leave the discussions about national title odds to the baseball field and not part of the 2023 Vanderbilt Commodores odds when it comes to the football program. Vanderbilt is trending in the right direction for the first time since being bowl eligible six times from 2008-2018.
Playing in a conference with two-time defending national champion Georgia, perennial title contender Alabama as well as LSU and Tennessee, Vanderbilt has plenty of work to do while dealing with different academic standards than the rest of the conference.
Conference Odds: Moving Out of the Cellar?
The goal for Vanderbilt should be to move up in the standings. Since 1960, the Commodores have only won twice as George MacIntyre led the 1982 team to a 4-2 mark in SEC play and James Franklin’s 2012 squad went 5-3 in conference games.
Vanderbilt opens conference play against Kentucky, Missouri, and Florida and those are games where the Commodores might be competitive before things get real in a hurry with a home game against Georgia.
Regular Season Wins: Commodores Could Go Over
After posting five wins in 2022, the reward was an expected win total of 3.5. Two of those five wins came against Elon and Northern Illinois and those teams are not on the schedule in 2023.
A game at Wake Forest will be no easy task as the Demon Deacons won the 2022 matchup by a score of 45-25. However, the other non-conference games come against Hawaii, Alabama A&M, and UNLV so there are certainly some possibilities for victories before conference play gets underway.
SEC competition begins with back-to-back home games against Kentucky and Missouri. When looking at the NCAA football scores, the Commodores lost by three points to Missouri and upset Kentucky 24-21 last season and both of those wins were on the road.
It would be quite an accomplishment if Vanderbilt went over 3.5 wins by the midway point of the season. Of course, the teams that Vanderbilt beat or nearly came away with wins against might take them a little more seriously this season.
Alabama and LSU aren’t on the college football schedule this season, but matchups with Georgia, Tennessee, Ole Miss, and Auburn in the second half of the season will be rather challenging.
To Make The Playoffs: Playoffs?
It won’t be a surprise if Georgia and Alabama are both part of the College Football Playoff field. Can LSU or Tennessee play their way into the conversation? Perhaps.
Vanderbilt? Considering that the Commodores lost to Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee by a combined score of 166-3, let’s not get carried away.
If Vanderbilt can get into a bowl game, the 2023 season would be considered a success.
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