Michigan vs Michigan State Odds: Spread ballooning in Wolverines’ Favor

The Michigan Wolverines and Michigan State Spartans will renew their rivalry on Saturday (7:30 p.m. ET) at Spartan Stadium.

While the Spartans have won 10 of the previous 15 meetings, the tables are turning. Since NCAA football lines opened, early money continues to pour in on the second-ranked Wolverines, who have jumped from 14-point to 24-point favorites (-110). The Wolverines are also -2500 on the moneyline, while the Spartans are +24 (-110) on the spread and +1150 to pull off the upset. Meanwhile, the projected total has remained relatively steady at 47.5 (-110 Over, -110 Under).

• Will Michigan take care of business? Read on as we break down the matchup and dive into the Michigan vs Michigan State odds in our college football game preview.

Betting Trends

The Michigan Wolverines are 3-3-1 against the spread this season. But in their last 15 games against Michigan State, they’re just 2-12-1 ATS. Meanwhile, the Michigan State Spartans are 3-2-1 ATS this year. The total has gone Under in four of the last six games between these NCAAF teams. That’s important to remember when assessing the Michigan vs Michigan State odds.

New Title Favorites

Following Saturday’s 52-7 rout of Indiana, the Michigan Wolverines have overtaken No. 1 Georgia as the national championship favorite. The second-ranked Wolverines are now +270 to win it all, up from +900 in the preseason.

Trailing 7-0 after the first quarter, Michigan reeled off seven unanswered touchdowns to cover the 32.5-point spread with ease. They’ve now won three straight games ATS after opening 0-3-1, per NCAAF scores.

J.J. McCarthy completed 14 of 17 passes for 222 yards and three touchdowns. His Heisman Trophy odds jumped to +1000 in the process, matching Oklahoma quarterback Dillon Gabriel for the second-best price on the board behind Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (-140).

Michigan is also a +105 Big Ten favorite, but No. 3 Ohio State (+250) and No. 7 Penn State (+300) continue to nip at the Wolverines’ heels. The Wolverines are slated to play both teams next month, which should provide clarity in the college football ratings headed into bowl season.

While McCarthy is critical to the Wolverines’ hopes, their fate may rest on their defense. The Wolverines’ defense ranks first in FBS in fewest points allowed per game (6.7) and second in fewest yards allowed per game (233.1). Only one of the Wolverines’ first seven opponents has scored double digits. Despite that, the Over’s still hit in Michigan’s last three games. Keep that in mind when analyzing the Michigan vs Michigan State odds.

Spartans Reeling

The Michigan State Spartans blew an 18-point fourth-quarter lead Saturday against Rutgers to fall to 2-4. The stunning 27-24 loss was the fourth in a row for the Spartans since head coach Mel Tucker was suspended. A 4-point underdog, Michigan State led 24-6 before allowing three unanswered touchdowns over the final 13:09.

At 0-3 in Big Ten play, the Spartans are left playing out the string. They’re unlikely to hit their projected regular-season win total of 4.5, with two games still remaining against ranked teams following Saturday: No. 3 Ohio State (Nov. 11) and No. 7 Penn State (Nov. 24). That also means the Spartans — who went 5-7 last year — will presumably go back-to-back seasons without appearing in a bowl game.

Stability, or lack thereof, remains a big problem. The Spartans have significantly struggled after a 2-0 start. But the more significant issue may be the glaring lack of talent. The Spartans have allowed 26 points or more in each of their last four college football games, including an average of 28 in Big Ten play.

Against Rutgers, they wasted a solid performance by Katin Houser. The freshman quarterback threw for 133 yards and two touchdowns and also ran for a score in his first collegiate start, springing Michigan State to its highest offensive output since Sept. 9. The Spartans are averaging 22 points per game.

Handicapping the Game

Michigan has been arguably the most dominant team in the country. Although this is a giant number for a conference rivalry game, it’s hard to put much trust in Michigan State. Aside from the venue, there’s really nothing working in the Spartans’ favor this weekend.

Asking either Noah Kim or Houser to produce against the country’s top defense is an extremely tall ask. They simply can’t be trusted.

Look for Michigan to win, and win comfortably. The 24-point spread could easily be within striking distance.

For NCAAF betting news, odds, analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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