Bills vs Commanders Odds Preview: Washington Could Pass the Litmus Test

NFL Odds Trending Against Hosts, Washington

Washington and Buffalo meet in what could be a game that exposes one of the two. On one hand, you have the Commanders who are 2-0 and gaining traction. And yet, the Bills vs Commanders odds still peg them as moderate underdogs here with the public agreeing. Washington opened as a 5.5-point underdog, which has now been bet up to 6.5. Buffalo blew out Las Vegas as a rebound. But color us skeptical.

Same Old Buffalo Bills

Plenty of fans and pundits alike fade Buffalo this season. But this could still be the same old Bills: the team that is 42-16 since 2020, the second-best record in this span, and beats up on teams it’s supposed to beat. The Bills are 37-11 as favorites and 25-20-3 against the spread (ATS). They dismantled the Commanders back in 2021.

But two years is a long time in the NFL. While both NFL teams are coached by the same men, a lot has happened. Buffalo is now into its second season without offensive coordinator Brian Daboll and quarterback Josh Allen, if he’s not lighting teams up, he is among the NFL leaders in turnovers.

Buffalo is the type of team to destroy its opponent or lose a close game. The NFL odds here have Buffalo at -6.5. But the Bills either cover this emphatically or they lose. The Bills are 5-10 in games decided by seven points or fewer since 2021. If you can keep the score close, there is a good chance Buffalo will make mistakes to cost it the game.

But that is easier said than done. The Bills have brandished a top-three offense since 2020 and its defense, despite having a mediocre pass rush, is adept at forcing turnovers. The defense also scores and combined with the offense, the total of 44.5 could fly – four of Buffalo’s last five road games in Washington have gone ‘over’.

The Bills’ offense is not invincible, however. Five of the team’s seven lowest scores came on the road in 2022, hence why the totals have gone under in eight of their last nine road games.

Washington Stays Clutch Despite Shortcomings

That’s where Sam Howell, Washington’s new commander on the field, comes in. The sophomore quarterback has been clutch for Washington. He led the team to fourth-quarter comebacks in both wins this season. And he has a passer rating of 125.5 in the second half. If Washington’s defense can keep Buffalo at bay, he may just torch the Bills vs Commanders odds.

“Man, I’ve said it before, and I’ve been saying it since camp,” left tackle Charles Leno Jr. said. “He’s unfazed. He’s always the same. Good play. Bad play. Doesn’t matter.”

That’s the type of mentality Washington needs from its potential franchise quarterback. Howell will be a big reason why this franchise, now under new ownership, can turn the page. Beating Buffalo, a team it has historically struggled against (1-8 in the last nine meetings), is a start.

We don’t fault folks for looking at Washington with suspicion. After all, its wins came over two losing teams from last season. Taking down Buffalo, which had more wins in 2022 than Arizona and Denver combined, is another thing.

But maybe Washington does not need to beat Buffalo outright. It would make for a lucrative bet at +250. Instead, Washington could cover the Bills vs Commanders odds. Washington has covered 53.3% of its home games as an underdog under Ron Rivera (since 2020).

That’s not exactly a spectacular stat. But this could also be the best team he’s coached. And if Howell really is “the guy”, Washington will improve its NFL standings.

For NFL betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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