The NFL returns to Europe once again, but this time two of the marquee teams in the league are facing off. The Miami Dolphins (6-2) and the Kansas City Chiefs (6-2) will do battle in Deutsche Bank Park in Frankfurt, Germany. The Chiefs wanted the game played in Germany, where Kansas City has global marketing rights. Kansas City is favored by 2.5 points (-115) and the total on the game is 51. The Dolphins vs Chiefs moneyline has Kansas City sitting at -140. The moneyline price on the Dolphins is at +120.
Location: Deutsche Bank Park in Frankfurt, Germany
Line: Kansas City -2.5 (-115)
Streaming: NFL Network
Dolphins Struggling With Top Teams
The Miami Dolphins are 6-2 on the season, but are just 1-2 when the NFL Vegas odds have them as an underdog. After defeating the Chargers as 3-point underdogs in Week 1, the Dolphins have lost to Buffalo and Philadelphia, not covering the spread either game. Both losses were by at least two touchdowns. So clearly, the Dolphins have some work to do.
The offense is averaging 33.9 points per game. But that number is going to be a bit inflated due to the 70-point outburst against Denver earlier in the season. Miami’s median offensive output is 31 points, which is a little bit more realistic.
The Dolphins run the ball for 151.8 yards per game and are averaging 5.9 yards per carry against teams allowing 4.3 yards. Miami’s running game has been getting the job done, although the team hasn’t rushed for 80 yards in either of its last two games.
The Dolphins are throwing for 301.5 yards per game and completing 70% of their passes. Miami’s average yards per pass attempt is No. 2 in the league. So there isn’t much to fault with the Dolphins offensively.
But the defense can be a cause of concern. Miami is allowing 25.5 points to teams who score 20.2 points per game. The rushing defense is a little better than average, but the Dolphins can give up some big plays against the pass. Teams are averaging 6.6 yards per pass against Miami and completing 69.5% of their passes.
Kansas City Transitioning to Defense
The Kansas City Chiefs are still winning games, which is no surprise. But the Chiefs are winning on the strength of their defense, which is a bit of a stunner. Kansas City is averaging 23.4 points against teams that allow 23.3 points on average, which makes them pretty average offensively.
The Chiefs are gaining yards, but aren’t capitalizing on it. Kansas City is averaging 381.5 yards of total offense, so it should be putting up a few more points. Being -4 in turnovers hasn’t helped. But Miami is also -4 in the turnover department and it hasn’t hurt the Dolphins much.
But the star of the Chiefs so far is the defense, which is allowing 16.1 points to teams averaging 22.3 points on the season. The Chiefs have been especially tough against the pass, allowing just 176.1 yards per game, which ranks No. 2 in the NFL. That’s not what you expect from Kansas City. But it’s working and that’s the main thing.
Kansas City is also doing better for those using them as one of their NFL picks against the spread on a weekly basis. After going just 6-10-1 against the spread last season, Kansas City is off to a 5-3 ATS start this year. But due to the lack of scoring, Kansas City is just 2-6 in totals.
What to Expect
This is one of the top matchups in this week’s NFL game schedule, so people will be waking up early to tune in. What they should see is the Dolphins running a little bit more than normal. The Chiefs aren’t as strong against the rush and Miami has one of the best running games in the NFL. The Dolphins lead the NFL in yards per carry, and they should take advantage of that. The two teams who beat the Chiefs rushed for 118 and 153 yards.
Kansas City may let Patrick Mahomes throw a bit more than he has recently. With Miami better defending the run than the pass, the Chiefs should look to do what they do best.
Who to Bet On?
With the Dolphins vs Chiefs moneyline at Kansas City -140, there’s a bit of logic in taking Miami +120 if you like the Dolphins in the game. You’ll lose your bet if Kansas City wins by 1 or 2 points, but you’re also getting +120 instead of laying -110 on a point spread bet. Another option is to take the Dolphins +8.5 points in a teaser, although when the Dolphins lose, they’ve lost big so far this season.
The Dolphins vs Chiefs moneyline is a bit of a tough call, although it’s hard to go against the better defense in this spot. But until Kansas City shows signs of its offense returning to previous form, the under 51 is likely going to be the play in this game.
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