Kansas City Chiefs 2023 Future Odds: Super Bowl, Conference, Division, Regular Season Wins, and Player Props

The Kansas City Chiefs were just 6-11 ATS (-553 units) in the regular season in 2022 but covered two of their three playoff games to finish 8-12 ATS (-472 units). Their lack of impressive wins in a 14-3 season has many bettors wondering if their ATS record is the first step in KC coming back to the pack in the AFC West, despite a 4-game cushion over the Los Angeles Chargers in 2022. The reality is, KC has not been a reliable wager for quite some time, producing a 26-33 ATS record (-909 units) since 2020. Andy Reid’s team will enjoy nine home games, making it more difficult to think that anyone but KC will win the West.

Kansas City Chiefs At A Glance

Kansas City Focused On Being NFL’s Next Dynasty

We think three Super Bowl wins in six years qualify an organization to be called a dynasty. If the Chiefs win this season or next, it’s safe to say that the Hunt family along with GM Brett Veach have reached that pinnacle. With most of the core players returning this season, the expectations will be nothing less than another championship. NFL odds have the Chiefs as the favorites (+650) along with the Philadelphia Eagles (+800) and Buffalo Bills (+800).

The offensive line should be better than last season with the arrival of Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor. Smith battled injuries last season in Tampa, missing four games with an elbow injury, but at 6-6, 338, the former Penn State Nittany Lion should be a welcome addition to the OL if he can stay healthy and clean up the holding penalties. Because Kansas City is a public team, it’s difficult to find much value in betting a season-win total because based on last year’s NFL scores, KC could have easily lost more games last season with 10 of their 17 games decided by 7 points or less, in addition to all three of their postseason wins.

Many think that this is a team that could take a small step back, but that doesn’t mean they won’t cash an over ticket because 12-5 seems about right. Last year, the Chiefs flew over their projected win total of 10.5 wins, but buyer beware because just three of the nine teams projected to have more than 10 wins fulfilling that prediction. Just using the 2023 Kansas City Chiefs stats from last season, plus factoring in the much-needed additions to the OL, it’s safe to say the KC over 11.5 is a solid wager.

Super Bowl Odds: Bills Will Challenge Chiefs Dynasty Plans

As long as Kansas City has Patrick Mahomes behind center, they will always be in the Super Bowl discussion. No matter how many roster changes were made in New England, the presence of Tom Brady ensured success. You could easily compare Andy Reid and Mahomes to Bill Belichick and Brady.

Whether we’ll get the same results (7 Super Bowls) remains to be seen. KC won’t sneak up on people as they may have last season with the Buffalo Bills (+600) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+780) as the preseason favorites. We don’t think KC will win the Super Bowl this year because if Smith isn’t the answer on the OL, Mahomes will be running for his life again in 2022, and that will eventually catch up to the 27-year-old.

Conference Odds: Jets Added to Mix, KC Still Favorites

The 2022 Kansas City Chiefs betting stats show the team as the second favorite (+500) behind the Buffalo Bills (+300). Books won’t make that mistake this year making KC the odds-on favorite at +350, but there has been some money coming in on Buffalo at +400 after opening at +500. Here is a name you don’t see too often, the New York Jets are the fourth choice at +900 after adding Aaron Rodgers in the offseason. We think the Bills will return the favor with a conference championship this season.

Division Odds: Has The AFC West Done Enough to Close Gap

As mentioned, KC won the AFC West by four games. Reid’s team was the odds on -140 favorite to win the division last year when the opening odds were released, and at no time did that waiver as they were the wire-to-wire favorite. The divisional odds this season suggest that the division has not closed the gap, but rather has lost some ground.

The Chiefs are -160 to win the West once again, 20 cents higher than last year when it was perceived that the other three teams had emerging QBs that could challenge Mahomes for AFC supremacy. Fast forward to this year, Derek Carr (Las Vegas) is in New Orleans, Justin Herbert (Chargers) still has to prove that he can win in the postseason, and Russell Wilson (Broncos) is trying to tap into past success. We can’t go against the Chiefs winning their eighth straight division title.

Regular Season Wins: KC Number Bumped Up In 2023

Looking over the Kansas City Chiefs’ statistics and schedule, we think an over wager is going to cash even with their season win total getting bumped to 11 after cashing an over 10.5 in 2022. Based on last year’s schedule, the Chiefs own the 16th most difficult schedule (147-140, .512) starting with a home date against the Detroit Lions on September 7th. Of their 17 games, 16 are against teams the Chiefs have beat in their last meeting.

The Buffalo Bills are the only team to own a win in their last game (24-20 10/16/2022). It is worth noting that seven of those wins were 3-point games, so past success doesn’t equate to the same results in 2023. KC was a 7-point favorite or more nine times against this season’s schedule in their last meeting.

To Make Playoffs: We Can’t Say ‘Duh’, So We’ll Just Say ‘Yes’

Kansas City was just -225 to make the postseason last year, the oddsmakers have made an obvious adjustment, making KC -400 to make it this year. Only the San Francisco 49ers (-450) are a bigger favorite to make the postseason.

Side Bets

When trying to simulate what the 2023 Kansas City Chiefs’ final stats will look like, it’s hard not to want our future money on the Chiefs, but we are still trying to some value in our selections, which is why we’re going to pass on winning the AFC west. At +650, Patrick Mahomes is the favorite to win the regular season MVP. Josh Allen (Bills), Joe Burrow (Bengals), and Jalen Hurts (Eagles) are +800. We think this is a generous payoff for a QB that will be in the 11-12 win window this year and will have a head-to-head game against the Bills in a revenge spot. If we like Mahomes to win that award, then it makes sense that a wager on Mahomes at +350 to be the NFL passing leader would be next. The former Texas Tech QB is a big favorite over Joe Burrow (+800) and Justin Herbert (+800). That does it for our Kansas City Chiefs stats and betting outlook, we wish you the best with your KC tickets in 2023.

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