Lions vs Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes Begins Quest For a Third Ring

The NFL season is finally here!

The 2023-’24 season will kick off Thursday night between the Lions vs Chiefs.

The Chiefs won Super Bowl LVII last season with an exciting 38-35 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles. Patrick Mahomes has led the Chiefs at quarterback and has won two Super Bowls while taking the team to three Super Bowls in the last five years.

Kansas City will be on a quest to earn another Super Bowl. However, the Lions will be on a quest to make the postseason.

And Detroit came close last season.

The Lions haven’t made the postseason since 2016 but weren’t eliminated until the season’s final week. There’s optimism for the Lions this season.

However, the start of the season won’t be easy against the Chiefs.

Let’s break down the Lions vs Chiefs matchup for Thursday Night Football.

Will Patrick Mahomes and Chiefs Win A Fourth Ring?

It’s Patrick Mahomes’ world; we’re just living in it.

The Chiefs led the AFC NFL football standings last season with 14 wins and three losses. They finished 7-1 at home and won five straight games before playing in the playoffs.

The Chiefs haven’t lost since December 4, 2022. That was against the Bengals, where Mahomes struggled, throwing just 16 completions for 223 yards.

But Mahomes and the Chiefs earned redemption in the playoffs, earning one of the more impressive NFL scores, a 23-20 win over the Bengals in the AFC Championship. Mahomes stepped up when it mattered the most.

The offense looks a little bit different than last year. The Chiefs lost JuJu Smith-Schuster to the Patriots and Mecole Hardman to the Jets. Therefore, the top three receivers on this team are Kadraious Toney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Skyy Moore.

That doesn’t sound too appealing. But don’t forget that Mahomes also has Travis Kelce at tight end, who will be his No. 1 target in the offense.

Mahomes threw for 5,250 yards in 2022. He played all 17 regular season games and earned the most passing yards in a single season. Despite throwing the ball 435 times, Mahomes still completed 67.1% of passes last year. That was admirable.

Kelce caught 110 of those completions for 1,338 yards while adding 12 touchdowns. He’s poised to have another massive season with the Chiefs.

On the other hand, the defense has some concerns. Chris Jones is holding out and likely won’t play for the Chiefs again. There are rumors that the Chiefs are looking for trade partners for Jones because they’re unwilling to pay him what he feels he’s worth.

The pass rush has been a strong suit for Kansas City, along with its coverage. With Jones’s absence, question marks surround whether or not the Chiefs can still get significant pressure on the quarterback.

How Will Detroit Use RB Jahmyr Gibbs?

The Detroit Lions have gradually improved over the last couple of years behind head coach Dan Campbell.

The Lions began 2022 poorly but went on a significant run in the second half of the season. However, they still fell short of a playoff spot by one game in the season’s final week.

Still, Lions fans are excited. The team finished last season with a 9-8 record. Yes, a winning record. This was the same team that finished 3-13 with Campbell in 2021 in his first season.

Detroit has made a lot of bold moves since being competitive. The one eye-opener was drafting Jahmyr Gibbs.

The Lions already had D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams. But they let Williams walk to New Orleans and traded away D’Andre Swift to the Eagles.

Detroit had a plan.

They signed David Montgomery and drafted former Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs this season to be the running back duo. There’s way more potential with this duo than last year’s duo. Swift was always hurt and never consistent.

Meanwhile, Williams had a breakout season and likely won’t ever achieve the numbers he put up last year.

The Lions were wise in that regard.

Detroit also added Sam LaPorta in the NFL Draft. He’ll be the starting tight end. Many analysts believe he has a lot of upside. Reports have also suggested that quarterback Jared Goff has looked his way a lot in preseason camp.

Goff will also have Amon-Ra St. Brown, Marvin Jones Jr., and Josh Reynolds at wide receiver. It’s not the most profound group, especially with Jameson Williams out for the season’s first six weeks due to his suspension.

Furthermore, the defense has to improve from last year. They had their moments behind last year’s former Michigan second-overall pick, Aidan Hutchinson.

The pass rush did well. However, the secondary was awful. The Lions added C.J. Gardner-Johnson and brought in Brian Branch in the NFL Draft. Those two could be significant assets to this secondary that needs much improvement.

Detroit Lions vs Kansas City Chiefs

In the NFL’s opening night game, the Kansas City Chiefs are currently -6.5 against the Lions. The total for this game is sitting at 54.5. The lines haven’t changed much since they’ve been on the board.

The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 11 games at home for a 20% ROI.

The Chiefs are typically a heavy favorite. Many betting analysts don’t suggest betting on juiced-up moneylines. They’d rather select NFL point spreads. But sports betting is all about value. If the Chiefs are -250 on the money, for example, and you feel like the Chiefs have a 75% chance of winning, you’d have an edge on a -250 moneyline.

A 75% probability that a wager will win is -300. If you get -250, there’s value. You’re allowed to bet juiced-up moneylines when it makes sense.

For the Chiefs, it’s undoubtedly made sense in their home games.

Kansas City isn’t a massive favorite at home against the Lions. You can find the Chiefs at around -270 on the moneyline.

Mahomes is one of the best quarterbacks ever to play the game. On Thursday, he’ll go up against a Lions secondary that was abysmal last year. We believe that the Lions improved the secondary. But we still think Mahomes will have his way against the Lions.

Mahomes got solid protection from his offensive line last season. He’s also got more familiar targets from last year, including Kadarius Toney, who was drafted 20th overall in 2021 by the Giants. Toney isn’t very durable, but he’ll be active and ready to go in Week 1.

The Chiefs likely expect him to become the No. 1 wide receiver in this offense. Against the Lions, he’s got a great NFL matchup to do just that.

It’s Shootout Time!

Again, our primary concerns are with the Lions’ secondary. The run defense also wasn’t very good last season.

Overall, the Lions’ defense improved in the year’s second half. But we’re back in the first half of the season in 2023.

The Chiefs are always prepared under Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes.

However, the pass rush could be weaker against the Lions without Jones in the lineup. That would allow Jared Goff more time in the pocket to find Gibbs or St. Brown. So, while we expect the Chiefs to escape the Lions in Week 1, the Over 54.5 sounds more appealing.

For NFL betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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