NFL Draft Top Ten Projected Odds: Alabama QB Distancing Himself as the Clear No. 1 Pick
Quarterbacks Figure to be Flying off the Board Early in the First Round in the 2023 Draft
Bijan Robinson, Jalen Carter Among the Wild Cards In The Top 10 Draft Odds
The NFL Draft is less than a week away and yet there is very little consensus about how the top 10 picks will shake out. The NFL Draft top ten projected odds have been changing almost daily.
How many quarterbacks will go in the top five and top 10? How far will Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter fall? Will Bijan Robinson join the select few running backs to go in the top 10 in recent years?
Whenever quarterbacks are expected to go high, that tends to lead to some movement on draft day and that could easily happen once again.
Carolina holds the No. 1 pick after a trade with Chicago. However, what happens in the No. 2 and 3 picks figures to have more of an impact on the rest of the top 10.
The draft begins with the first round on Thursday. Here’s a look at some of the odds associated with the draft positions.
No. 1 – Carolina Panthers 
Former Alabama quarterback Bryce Young has been projected to land in Carolina in mock drafts even if it took the betting boards a little extra time to push Young ahead of Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud.
Young is now head and shoulders above the rest of the field at -1400 to be the top pick with Stroud coming in at +700 according to the NFL Draft top ten projected odds.
Carolina paid a steep price to land the top pick in a trade with the Chicago Bears, so the Panthers need to get this right.
No. 2 – Houston Texans 
This is a pick that could impact the rest of the top half of the draft.
With the Texans also having the 12th overall pick in the trade that sent quarterback Deshaun Watson to the Cleveland Browns so if they want to upgrade from Davis Mills at the quarterback position, they can either hope one of the top QBs slips down or trade up for a quarterback.
When looking at the NFL Draft top ten projected odds, Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson has the top odds at +175 to go second overall.
The most interesting aspect here could be that Kentucky quarterback Will Levis (+200) is ahead of Stroud (+250).
Texas Tech edge rusher Tyree Wilson comes in at +250 so all of this says is that nobody knows exactly what the Texans are going to do.
No. 3 – Arizona Cardinals 
Stroud (+125) has the best odds to go in this slot and that is an indication that a trade could be in the works since the Cardinals have Kyler Murray at quarterback. If the Texans pass on Stroud, the Cardinals’ phone should be ringing off the hook.
Anderson (+250) and Wilson (+475) are popular names here. Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson is a player either loved by scouts or scaring them to death. He is priced at +275 to be the selection at No. 3.
No. 4 – Indianapolis Colts 
The Colts are drafting in the first round for just the second time in the last five drafts and what they do will be determined by how many quarterbacks go ahead of them.
It has been a revolving door at quarterback in recent seasons, so perhaps using a high first-round pick will stop that.
The last two times that Indianapolis used a No. 1 pick on a quarterback, it was hard to argue with the results from Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning.
Levis (+125), Stroud (+250) and Richardson (+400) are the names to watch. None of them are considered to be the can’t prospects that Manning and Luck were. Still, look for a quarterback to go here.
No. 5 – Seattle Seahawks 
Defense seems to be the way the Seahawks will go with Anderson (+200), Wilson (+250) and Georgia’s Jalen Carter (+300) the front-runners.
Pete Carroll has not shied away from taking players with red flags off the field so keep that in mind when it comes to Carter, an elite talent who is being downgraded by some teams after being involved in a car accident that claimed the lives of former teammate and staff member at Georgia.
Richardson does come in at +600 if the Seahawks want to address the quarterback position.
No. 6 – Detroit Lions 
There isn’t a player in the top six selections other than Young going to Carolina with a stronger lean than Illinois cornerback Devon Witherspoon to land in Detroit. He is given -115 odds to be the No. 6 pick with Oregon cornerback Christian Gonzalez priced at +300. The Lions need lots of help on defense and landing a top cornerback would be a nice place to start.
No. 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 
If there is a team in the top 10 that might make a big push to jump up to land one of the top quarterbacks, it could be the Raiders.
Jimmy Garoppolo was brought in after the departure of Derek Carr. If the Raiders stay put, Wilson (-1000 to go in the top 10) could be an option. However, with Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones on the roster, is a pass rusher really the top need?
No. 8 – Atlanta Falcons 
This is another interesting spot in the top 10.
Atlanta has landed tight end Kyle Pitts and receiver Drake London in the top 10 in the last two drafts. There is some momentum for the Falcons to consider Texas running back Bijan Robinson in this spot. However, a quick look at the NFL players stats shows that rookie Tyler Allgeier ran for more than 1,000 yards during the 2022 season.
When analyzing the NFL team stats, the Falcons allowed the most points among the NFC South teams during the 2023 season so upgrading the defense is a priority.
Assuming Witherspoon and Wilson are off the board, Gonzalez would be a possible pick and Carter can’t be overlooked either. Carter is priced at -140 to go somewhere after the sixth pick.
No. 9 – Chicago Bears 
Chicago traded away the top pick for quite an impressive haul. That was an indication that the Bears are content with Justin Fields to be the quarterback for the foreseeable future. Now he needs some help.
Landing receiver D.J. Moore in the deal with Carolina is a nice start.
The offensive line is a mess, so it is not a surprise to see Ohio State’s Paris Johnson and Northwestern’s Pete Skoronski priced at +200 to land here. The Bears should have pretty good scouting reports on the two Big Ten products.
It could be tempting to make Robinson the pick here as that would create chaos for opposing defenses to have to deal with both Fields and Robinson.
No. 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 
Not a bad deal for a Super Bowl team to get a pick in the top 10. This is another potential spot for Robinson to land. The offensive linemen are also popular picks. If either Witherspoon or Gonzalez drops, they would be natural fits for the Eagles more than an offensive lineman.
Carter would be tempting. However, the Eagles picked Jordan Davis at No. 13 and have Fletcher Cox and Milton Williams to play the interior defensive line positions.
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