NFL Super Wild Card Teaser Strategy: History Suggests Banking on Dogs
Underdogs Have Covered 56.4% of NFL Playoffs Games Since 2020
Bet Super Wild Card Underdogs With 6-Point Teasers
Since the NFL expanded its playoff format beginning in 2020, underdogs have ruled the point spreads. Check it: underdogs have winning cover rates in each of the last three playoffs. In total, underdogs covered 22 of the 39 playoff games. And armed with a six-point teaser, we find the three best underdogs during this Super Wild Card weekend. Bet these underdogs to give the favorites a run. That’s our NFL Wild Card teaser strategy.
Miami Dolphins (+4.5) vs Kansas City Chiefs 
Day/Time: Dolphins (11-6), Chiefs (11-6)
Day/Time:
Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Stream: Peacock
Everyone is avoiding Miami like the plague. The team got dinged by injuries and just choked a critical game against Buffalo. On top of that, Miami has to journey to the frozen tundras of Kansas City. Historically, warm-weather teams like Miami struggle in these climates. But all of this is overstated, especially when we consider Kansas City.
The Chiefs are not the same team as the last few seasons. They have the worst crop of receivers and Patrick Mahomes has a passer rating under 80 when targeting anyone outside of Travis Kelce, who is also old and has one touchdown in his last nine games.
That’s partly why the Chiefs have a hard time putting teams away. Look at the NFL scores. The Chiefs have not won by more than 10 points since Week 7. And against the seven teams with winning records, the Chiefs are just +7 in total. KC is not blowing out Miami by more than 10 points. Count this as the first leg of our NFL Wild Card teaser strategy this weekend. Tease the Dolphins from +4.5 to +10.5.
Los Angeles Rams (+3) vs Detroit Lions 
Day/Time: Rams (10-7), Lions (12-5)
Day/Time:
Location: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Stream: NBC
From an unpopular underdog to one of the sexiest. Nearly three-quarters of the money is going to Los Angeles for a good reason. This team’s NFL record is 7-1 since its Week 10 bye. The former Super Bowl champions are also healthy with Matthew Stafford looking like his Pro Bowl self as he returns to Detroit.
As for the Lions, they made history by winning the NFC North for the first time. That’s partly due to an easy schedule. Detroit has not beaten a team with more than nine wins this season since Kansas City in the opener. The defense has given up 24+ points and over 340 yards in half its games.
The Rams are 8-1 when it scores over 23 points and 8-3 when it accumulates at least 350 yards. They still covered the spread in two of these losses. With our NFL Wild Card teaser strategy here, we simply need the Rams to not lose by nine points against Detroit. This is more than doable. Tease the Rams from +3 to +9.
Philadelphia Eagles vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) 
Day/Time: Eagles (11-6), Buccaneers (9-8)
Day/Time:
Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL
Stream: ESPN
It’s an understatement to suggest Philadelphia is struggling. The offense is broken and the defense has given up 25+ points in six of the last seven games. It also allowed 400+ yards four times during this six-game slump. Tampa Bay is not a world-beater. But this team is good enough to mess up this side of the NFL playoff bracket.
The Buccaneers defense is giving up an average of just 16.3 points in its last six games. The team has gone 5-1 during this span. Tampa Bay shuts down running games and is ranked in the top 10 in most rushing defense stats. That happens to be the engine that powers Philadelphia.
On top of that, the Eagles’ passing defense is shot. Baker Mayfield has a 94.6 passer rating and is good enough to get the Bucs to cover nine points here. Tease the Buccaneers from +3 to +9.
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