Bet the ‘Under’ in a Rainy Game in Baltimore?
As you can surmise from our Rams vs Ravens preview headline, this NFL matchup will be affected by heavy rainfall. The latest reports have a 97% chance of showers with wind speeds up to 20 miles per hour during the day. The rain is expected to be over an inch. In short: bet the total to go under? The books are already ahead of you as they have lowered the opener from 44.5 to 40.
Location: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
Rain, Rain, Go Under?
Sometimes the weather conditions are overstated in an NFL game. But not when we have wind speeds up to 20 miles per hour and potentially heavy downpours. With any kind of rain, teams will shift the game plan to run the ball more. Around 12% of passing production is cut down so you can expect low passing totals on the NFL props.
As for wind, you can expect some impact once it hits the 20 mph part. Teams attempt field goals at closer ranges. You won’t see as many 50-yarders, if any, even from the Ravens’ Justin Tucker.
The average field goal distance drops around seven yards at wind speeds of 20+ mph. And the conversion rate drops around six percent. The expected make rate at closer distance also drops from nearly 89% to 77%. So yes, there is a tangible impact when we have a windy game.
But this should be favorable for the Baltimore Ravens, a team that relies more on its running game. Baltimore attempts the second-fewest passes (28.5 per game). In comparison, it runs the ball the most (32.5). The Ravens also lead the NFL in rushing yards (158.5) and touchdowns (22 in total).
Given the conditions, it’s no wonder the Ravens are favored by over a touchdown (7.5). Baltimore is atop the AFC in the NFL standings and has won seven straight games against the NFC. As such, this Rams vs Ravens preview expects a Baltimore victory in what could be another low-scoring game.
The total has gone under in 10 of Baltimore’s last 13 games. And it’s gone the same in eight of its last 10 games against the NFC West. This is unless the Rams can get something going.
Can Brittle Rams Hold Up in Rainy Baltimore?
Can the Rams play in this grueling atmosphere? Los Angeles is more of a finesse team, hence why it typically struggles against teams like San Francisco. On top of that, the Rams have been injury-prone. Quarterback Matthew Stafford is 35 with numerous injuries on his resume. And that’s just the tip of the NFL injury report.
Leading receiver Puka Nacua and tight end Tyler Higbee both left the last game with injuries. Star receiver Cooper Kupp has also dealt with a litany of injuries and does not look like the superstar who tore up the league two years ago.
Now, the Rams go against the NFL’s best defense. The Ravens lead the NFL in sacks (47), points allowed (15.6), and yards per play (4.2). This team also has a penchant for destroying visitors. It crushed the Texans 25-9, Detroit 38-6, and the Seahawks 37-3.
The Rams are 3-2-1 against the NFL point spreads (ATS) as a visitor. And the last time they played Lamar Jackson, he tore them a new one: five touchdowns and a combined 264 yards from scrimmage. Baltimore won 45-6 as it totaled 480 yards against Los Angeles’s 221.
Los Angeles will need to depend on its running game. The likes of Kyren Williams and Royce Freeman need to step up. The Rams are 5-1 and 6-0 ATS when he scored a touchdown and/or rushes over 100 yards. He’s the engine that helps unlock this team’s offensive potential.