Ravens vs Chargers Free Pick: Praying They Don’t “Charger”
Why are the Chargers Worth Betting Against the Ravens?
Chargers are Given Just Over a Field Goal
We’ve often made fun of the Chargers for being the NFL’s most frustrating team to bet on. But here we are, touting them to cover the spread against the Ravens. We didn’t get hacked. And this is not so much support on Los Angeles as it is a fade on Baltimore, which has had difficulty stringing consecutive impressive wins. Thus, take the points at +3.5 on L.A. in this Ravens vs Chargers free pick.
Baltimore Ravens vs Los Angeles Chargers 
Day/Time:
Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Stream: NBC
Chargers Gaining Plenty of Support
Despite their unflattering status, the Chargers remain popular among the public. Some outlets report that nearly 60% of tickets have been on the Chargers with nearly 80% of the money going to them as well. So this Ravens vs Chargers free pick is contingent on the Chargers’ spread staying at +3.5. Once it hits three points, it may be time to bail.
The total has also adjusted a few times, going from an opening of 44.5 to as high as 47 and finally down to 46.5 where it currently sits. Given these teams’ inconsistent natures, this is a tough market to play.
Ravens are Prone to Bad Beats
Baltimore can alternate between being dominant to a big mess on offense all in one game. This team is a front-runner and can be prone to some disastrous second-halves given their NFL scores and odds. The Ravens can destroy Detroit and Seattle, but struggle to cover against Arizona and Tennessee. These are not division games either.
Baltimore’s game plan has been to run opponents down and build a lead early. From here, the team neutralizes the more predictable passing offense. This typically works against NFC teams who are not too familiar with Lamar Jackson. But in conference games, Baltimore is 5-3 against the spread (ATS) and most of these covers came against teams with iffy quarterbacks.
Jackson has been the epitome of Baltimore: he starts strong but fades down the stretch. He has a 103.9 passer rating in the first half but only 97.2 in the second. And his fourth-quarter woes continue. He has an 85.5 passer rating, which is his lowest in a game just like last NFL season: 72.5.
This smells like Baltimore could once again struggle to finish the Chargers, who have the better passer in Justin Herbert.
Can Chargers Overcome a Lack of Defense?
Justin Herbert is once again putting up prolific stats on a losing team. Most impressive with him is his 1.4% interception rate. He’s thrown just five picks from 358 passing attempts. And he would not be throwing a lot if the Chargers defense could do its job. At home, this unit allows 6.12 yards per play and 25.4 points. Both are in the bottom three among defenses.
We can expect Herbert to have to play Superman again as the Ravens build an early lead against this defenseless defense. But we can also feel safe knowing Herbert and take care of the ball: they commit the fewest turnovers – only eight in 10 games.
And as bad as the defense is, it has one saving grace: its ability to force turnovers. The Chargers are +7 in turnover differential and lead the NFL in fumbles recovered with nine. This second stat is key against a Ravens team that loves to run the ball.
The Chargers may not live up to its Super Bowl odds, but this team has enough going for it to give the best teams a good fight. In this game, we estimate that this team can give the Ravens a run for their money.
Low Scoring is a Trend for the Chargers
Despite the Chargers’ porous defense, seven of their last eight games have gone under the total. The Chargers have held opponents to 23 points or fewer in five of their last seven games. Even the mighty Cowboys scored only 20 points against them. This is a crucial stat as the Chargers cannot concede too many scores against the Ravens if they are to cash this pick.
Picks/tie_index]And the Pick is…
We’ve already given our Ravens vs Chargers free pick to take the points on the Chargers as long as it is at +3.5 or more. Baltimore could start strong and even go up by double figures. But the Chargers have the passing attack to rally and get a backdoor cover in the later parts of this game. Bet: Los Angeles Chargers +3.5 (-110).
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