NFL Week 12 Odds: Looking For Value in Totals
Trio of Games With Totals Less Than 35
Oddsmakers are expecting some low-scoring NFL games this Thanksgiving weekend. There are three games with totals less than 35. You have to go back to 2006 for the last time that happened. With three games being played on Thursday, Sunday’s schedule looks a little bit light. But there are a few plays out there worth a shot. We’ll take a look at some of the NFL Week 12 odds with an emphasis on totals in this article.
Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers 
Day/Time:
Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
Line: Baltimore -3.5
Total: 47
Streaming: Live Sports Stream
The Baltimore Ravens (8-3) visit the Los Angeles Chargers (4-6) in a decent Sunday night contest. The NFL Week 12 odds have the Baltimore Ravens favored by 3.5 points and the total on the game is at 47.5 points. The Ravens’ offense is in high gear, scoring 31 or more points in each of its last five games, going 4-1 straight-up, 3-2 against the spread and 4-1 in totals in that span. The Ravens have been running the ball well over the past five games. Baltimore hasn’t needed to rely on the passing game lately. The Ravens have thrown for a high of 248 yards over the past four weeks.
Defensively, Baltimore has been a little up-and-down, but has played well for the most part. Only Detroit has managed to throw for more than 200 yards the past five weeks. The Ravens have allowed a few rushing yards, but that’s not something the Chargers look to do. Los Angeles would rather beat you with the pass.
Chargers Having Disappointing Year
The Chargers entered the season with pretty lofty expectations this season. But so far, it hasn’t worked out. Los Angeles enters this game with a 4-6 NFL record. The offense hasn’t been bad, while the defense is performing a little worse than average. The Chargers are averaging 25.8 points per game, rushing for 105.8 yards and throwing for 248.5 per game. Los Angeles runs the ball 26 times per game and throws 36.
Defensively, the Chargers are allowing 23.8 points per game. The run defense hasn’t been bad, allowing 4.0 yards per carry and 102 yards per game. But the pass defense has been brutal, allowing 291.6 yards per game. The Chargers do a decent job of tightening up when they need to, allowing one point for every 16.5 yards allowed. That ranks No. 10 in the NFL.
This is one of the higher totals in the NFL odds this week, with only two games having higher numbers. But despite having a decent offense and a less-than-stellar defense, the Chargers have been a pretty good under NFL team this season. Los Angeles is just 3-6-1 in totals and the under is the way to look in this one.
Carolina Panthers at Tennessee Titans
Day/Time:
Location: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee
Line: Tennessee -3.5
Total: 37
Streaming: Live Sports Stream
The Carolina Panthers visit the Tennessee Titans in one of the uglier games this week. The teams have won a combined four games. There are 19 NFL teams which have won five or more games. The Titans haven’t been that bad at home, which is where all three wins have come. Tennessee is 3-0 straight-up and in the NFL picks against the spread at home. The loss to Baltimore in London is technically considered a home game, but really isn’t. The NFL Week 12 odds have the Titans favored by 3.5 with a total of just 37. But games with extremely low totals have been solid bets in recent years. Going back to the start of the 2013 season, games with over/unders of 37 or lower are 26-58-2 in totals.
The Panthers’ fans are already second-guessing the decision to take Bryce Young over CJ Stroud, but it’s still early in their careers. Stroud does have better NFL players around him, but you can see where Carolina fans are coming from. The Panthers average just 16.3 points per game and 266.7 total yards. Carolina doesn’t run the ball that badly, but elects to throw the majority of the time.
Carolina’s defense is allowing 27.5 points per game, despite holding teams to 308.6 total yards, more than 50 yards under their season averages. The Panthers rank last in the NFL in defensive yards per point, allowing a point for every 11.2 yards given up.
Titans Happy to Return Home
Tennessee played its last three games on the road and lost all three, so have to glad to return to Nashville. The Titans were outplayed in their last two games and didn’t do much right. Tennessee is averaging just 16.8 points this season. The Titans run the ball well enough, but the passing game hasn’t been there. Will Levis has taken over at quarterback, as Tennessee is looking towards the future.
Tennessee’s defense isn’t bad, allowing 22 points per game. The Titans aren’t great against the run or the pass. But they don’t have a weakness against one or the other, either.
The total is low, but will have to follow the trend of games with low totals landing under the number. Take the under 37 in this one.
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