Ranieri, Cagliari Looking for Upset Over AC Milan
AC Milan vs Cagliari Price Rossoneri as Comfortable Favorites
Cagliari Just Three Points Outside of Relegation Zone
Claudio Ranieri has pulled off miracles before. His Leicester City incredibly won the Premier League at 5000-to-1 odds in 2015-16. Now the boss of Cagliari, in Serie A, Ranieri will be looking for an improbable upset over AC Milan on Saturday. While AC Milan have already clinched a Champions League place for next season, Cagliari are fighting for their Serie A lives. The Islanders are just three points outside of the relegation zone with three games to play. We’ll discuss the AC Milan vs Cagliari odds as both sides are winless in their last four Serie A games.
AC Milan vs Cagliari
Date, time:
Location: Stadio San Siro, Milan, Italy
Head-to-Head
AC Milan have won each of their last four matches vs Cagliari. The Rossoneri have already defeated Cagliari twice this season, in Serie A and the Coppa Italia. Luka Jovic scored twice in Milan’s 4-1 Coppa Italia Round of 16 victory and AC Milan pulled off a 3-1 comeback victory in Serie A last September. The AC Milan vs. Cagliari odds listed the Rossoneri as -115 favorites for the latter match. Notably, Milan are unbeaten in their last 12 games vs. Cagliari, in all competitions. Cagliari haven’t defeated Milan at the San Siro since 1997.
AC Milan Losing Steam
Since losing 2-1 to rivals Inter Milan, which handed the Nerazzurri the Serie A title, AC Milan have drawn each of their last two games. Sunday’s match vs. Genoa was a wild one, as Milan fell behind twice and came back both times. After Matteo Gabbia’s headed drew AC Milan level at 2-2 in the 72nd minute, Christian Pulisic found Olivier Giroud to put the Rossoneri up 3-2 just minutes later.
However, a Malick Thiaw own goal allowed Genoa to equalize at 3-3 and the match finished that way. Milan could easily phone in the rest of the season if they really wanted to. It looks like manager Stefano Pioli and AC Milan will part ways at the end of the season, regardless of how they close out. Plus, they’ve already clinched a Champions League spot for next season and crashed out of the Europa League.
With three draws and a loss in their last four Serie A matches, the Rossoneri are looking a bit vulnerable. They’ve conceded three goals in two of those games and defense has certainly been a concern in recent months. According to the Serie A stats, AC Milan have conceded more goals than any other team currently in the five Champions League places. Plus, starting keeper Mike Maignan is out injured, along with midfielder Ruben Loftus-Cheek.
Wild Ride for Cagliari
It’s been an interesting month for Cagliari. They’ve managed to defeat Atalanta and draw with Inter Milan and Juventus but lost 3-0 to 12th-placed Genoa a couple of weeks back. With a 1-1 draw vs. Lecce on Sunday and Verona’s victory over Fiorentina, Cagliari dropped to 15th place in the Serie A standings. Cagliari are three points ahead of 18th-placed Udinese at the moment and that could change quickly.
Betting on both teams to score has frequently been a winner in Cagliari matches. That’s occurred in nine of their last 12 Serie A games. Plus, Ranieri’s side have conceded in each of their last eight. Only Frosinone, Sassuolo and Salernitana have conceded more goals than the Sardinians this season.
Under Ranieri, Cagliari have shown a penchant for comebacks and they’re not to be counted out even if they concede an early goal at the San Siro. After all, they did manage to score a late goal vs. champions Inter at the San Siro to secure a 2-2 draw in mid April. Nicolas Viola scored that goal for the Isolani and he’s found the net five times in Serie A this season, which leads the team. However, he may miss Saturday’s match with a hamstring injury. Starters Tommaso Augello and Gianluca Gaetano are also suspended for this one.
Match Analysis & Odds
Right now, the AC Milan vs Cagliari odds price hosts Milan as -245 favorites. With the vig, that corresponds to a 67.4 percent implied chance of victory. Given the Rossoneri haven’t won any of their last four matches, it might be worth being cautious here. Meanwhile, Cagliari are pining for a result and they’re +600 underdogs.
Although Cagliari are fighting off relegation, they have only lost one of their last six in Serie A. The Serie A odds also list a draw at +400 and it wouldn’t be a massive surprise if this one finishes all square. Cagliari do have some key absences here that could hurt them, though, as Augello has started 11 matches in a row. Meanwhile, Gaetano has four goals in his last nine games.
At the moment, AC Milan -1, -1.5 sits at -115, while Cagliari +1, +1.5 comes in at -105. Meanwhile, six of Milan’s last seven Serie A games have finished with three or more goals. Over and under three goals are both priced at -110 odds as both teams have had their struggles defensively.
