Serie A Matchday 21 Odds: Crucial Derby Della Madonnina on Sunday
Napoli Inching Closer to Title
Crucial Derby Della Madonnina on Sunday
Old rivals meet again on Sunday as Inter Milan take on AC Milan in the Derby della Madonnina. Their fortunes have been quite divergent as of late, as Inter are thriving and AC Milan have dropped out of the top four. We’ll see if the match can be a turning point for the defending champs or if they drop a third straight Serie A match. Meanwhile, Napoli have taken a massive 13-point lead in Serie A and can potentially extend it by defeating Spezia this weekend. We’ll take a look at these games and others as we review the Serie A Matchday 21 betting odds.
Match of the Week
Inter Milan vs AC Milan
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Defending champions AC Milan have struggled since 2023 started, with just one win in seven matches, in all competitions. They got smashed at home by Sassuolo 5-2 last weekend and lost the previous match to Lazio, 4-0. Stefano Pioli will try to regroup his players ahead of a big match vs. rivals Inter Milan. While AC Milan have struggled and won just one of their last five Serie A matches, Inter have thrived.
They’ve qualified for the Coppa Italia semifinals and have risen to second place in the Serie A standings. They defeated AC Milan a few weeks ago in the Supercoppa Italiana final and show -105 ATS and moneyline odds to win this one.
Inter came back from a goal down to defeat Cremonese 2-1 last weekend as Lautaro Martínez scored a double. They also defeated Atalanta 1-0 in the Coppa Italia quarters on Tuesday. AC Milan crashed out of the Coppa Italia in the round of 16 by losing to Torino. With the Champions League round of 16 quickly approaching, the Rossoneri need to build some momentum. That’s been tough this season with goalkeeper Mike Maignan out for long stretches of the season and this match.
Defender Fikayo Tomori is also expected to miss this match. As a result, AC Milan show just +280 odds to win but -115 odds to cover the ½-goal spread.
Two of the last six meetings, in all competitions, have finished in draws and another comes in at +270 odds. While the Nerazzurri are 6-1-1 in 2023, the Rossoneri’s defense has been incredibly leaky.
AC Milan have conceded at least two goals in each of their last five matches in all competitions. In their last three matches, they’ve conceded an average of four goals, which includes a 3-0 loss to Inter in the Supercoppa Italiana. With that in mind, over 2½ goals sit at -125 odds for Sunday’s derby match.
Other Matches to Watch
Roma vs Empoli
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In one of the more intriguing matches on the Serie A games schedule, Roma host a surprising Empoli side. Empoli are unbeaten in their last six Serie A matches, with a 3-3-0 record. That includes a win at Inter Milan and a draw at Lazio.
Empoli are no stranger to getting results on the road, with only three losses in 10 away games. Roma are coming off a 2-1 loss in the Coppa Italia to Cremonese and a loss by the same score line to Napoli in Serie A. Roma are currently in sixth place but just one point behind third-placed Lazio. Coming off consecutive losses, Roma are one-goal favorites for their match vs. Empoli. The Giallorossi show -120 odds to cover and -210 odds to win at the Stadio Olimpico.
In one of the stranger developments of the season, both right wingback Rick Karsdorp and winger Nicolo Zaniolo have been excluded from the squad. Karsdorp reportedly had a falling out with Mourinho and Zaniolo wanted out in January.
They’re both set to be reintegrated into the squad, with neither sealing a transfer away from Rome. Whether either feature on Saturday is unclear, though. Regardless, Empoli come in at even odds to cover and continue their unbeaten streak.
The Tuscan side also displays +600 odds to win and a draw is priced at +340 odds. Both teams are on lengthy scoring streaks but under 2½ goals sits at -115 odds.
Sassuolo vs Atalanta
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Sassuolo desperately needed a win last weekend and managed to pull off a big upset at AC Milan. The Neroverdi won 5-2 and managed to go seven points clear of the relegation zone. It was Sassuolo’s first win since October and they take on another formidable foe on Saturday.
Atalanta are unbeaten in Serie A in 2023 and moved into the top four with a 2-0 win over Sampdoria on Saturday. Ademola Lookman has been on fire lately as the Nigerian international has scored in their last three Serie A games.
Heading into Saturday, Lookman and Atalanta are -105 ATS and moneyline road favorites. The Serie A Matchday 21 betting odds also price Sassuolo +½ at -115 odds. The Neroverdi are +250 home underdogs and are just 3-2-4 at home this season. Meanwhile, Atalanta have been one of the best road teams in the league, with a 6-3-1 record away from Bergamo.
Sassuolo did manage a 2-1 win over Atalanta at the Mapei Stadium last season but La Dea have won four of the last six. A draw displays +290 odds for the match, while both over and under three goals sit at -110 odds.
Spezia vs Napoli
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Jose Mourinho cheekily suggested that Napoli had already won Serie A before Roma took on the Partenopei last Sunday. Napoli came away with a 2-1 victory and his statement is looking somewhat true. Napoli have a 13-point lead with 18 matches to go and have won their last four Serie A matches.
They have an incredible 17-2-1 record this season and they head to 17th-placed Spezia on Sunday. Napoli’s Victor Osimhen has scored in his last four starts and he’ll certainly be looking to get on the scoresheet here. The Partenopei are -255 road favorites and show +110 odds to cover the 1½-goal spread at Spezia.
Napoli won the reverse fixture, 1-0, and have defeated Spezia by a three-goal margin on the road in each of the last two seasons. Spezia have also lost their last two matches and won just once in 2023. They’re also missing a bunch of players this match, including forwards M’Bala Nzola and Emmanuel Gyasi.
Midfielders Simone Bastoni and Szymon Zurkowski are also out. Still, they come in at -130 odds to cover the spread and +650 odds to win the match.
These teams have never drawn before but a tie displays +415 odds. Napoli have scored at least twice in each of their last four Serie A matches. Meanwhile, Spezia have been shutout in three of their last four. Under three goals sits at -135 odds for this one, as a result.
Hellas Verona vs Lazio
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It’s been a tumultuous season for Hellas Verona but they’ve lost just one of their last five Serie A matches. In 18th place, they’re currently five points from safety and need to close the season out strongly to stay up. They’ve got an incredibly tough match next Monday coming up vs. Lazio.
The Biancocelesti take on Juventus in the Coppa Italia quarterfinals on Thursday before heading to Verona. Third-placed Lazio have done exceptionally well with star striker Ciro Immobile missing a lot of time. Immobile came off the bench in the recent 1-1 draw vs. Fiorentina and could rejoin the starting XI for this match. Regardless, the Serie A Matchday 21 betting odds price Lazio at +105 ATS and moneyline odds.
Only Napoli have conceded fewer goals than Lazio this season and the Biancocelesti have conceded just once in their last three Serie A matches. Meanwhile, Hellas Verona’s defense has improved a lot since the World Cup break ended.
They’ve conceded just three goals in five 2023 matches and a low scoring match is expected here. Under 2½ goals currently show a -130 price. Darko Lazovic has scored three goals in his last four matches and could provide a threat for Verona. Still, Hellas sit at just +270 odds to win the match and they’re just 3-7 at home this season. They do, however, come in at -125 odds to draw or win the match. Bettors can also find a draw at +245 for this one.
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