Dawson vs Green Odds: It’s Not Going the Distance
UFC Fight Night Lightweight Main Event
Grant Dawson vs Bobby Green headlines the card at UFC Fight Night, and Dawson vs Green odds have Dawson very short. The American is a -425 favorite with betting UFC markets, which is a short quote against someone like Green. However, it should be an exciting lightweight contest, and if Dawson wins, he could be in line for a title shot next year.
Doubling Down on Dawson
It’s hardly surprising to Dawson vs Green odds strongly favor Dawson for the victory.
He stands out as one of the most well-rounded lightweights in the division, and if he can overcome Green, a potential title shot is on the cards, at 20-1-1, we think he deserves one.
Dawson possesses the ability to deliver knockout blows and boasts an impressive submission game, making him a formidable opponent, and we’re not sure if Green can handle him.
His recent fight record includes a decision victory over Damir Ismagulov, along with submission wins against Mark Madsen and Jared Gordon.
Notably, he demonstrated his knockout power by sending Leonardo Santos to the canvas with just one second remaining in their fight, so he knows when to strike.
However, given his history of securing victories through submissions, it’s reasonable for bettors to expect him to get this fight to the ground. He has the clear wrestling edge against Green, so he should utilize it.
He recently told UFC news about his ability to handle pressure.
“It was really just about going in and doing what I know how to do because I’ve had a little bit of experience of going with Damir before, so it wasn’t the total unknown,” Dawson said.
“I just don’t think I feel the pressure anymore like I used to. I think I’m getting to the point where there might be pressure, but I’m getting better at knowing how to handle it.”
With it being a five round fight, that plays into Dawson’s hands as well.
One Last Shot for Green
Green is a quality fighter, but as a 37-year-old, a loss could send his career into a downward spiral.
Labeling Green as a journeyman is tempting, but his skills extend far beyond that tag.
He earned himself this chance against Dawson following a victory over former champion Tony Ferguson, whom he submitted in the third round at UFC 291.
His wealth of experience played a crucial role on that occasion, and although Dawson vs Green odds have him at +325, he’s too good to ignore.
He also needs to turn around the current UFC rankings, which have Dawson ahead, but he needs only one clean punch to land.
Inconsistency has always been the primary issue for Green. His performance against Ferguson was exceptional, where he landed an impressive 145 punches compared to Ferguson’s 62.
However, he struggled with the class when posting losses against Islam Makhachev and Drew Dober. Losing to Dober at this stage of his career isn’t good enough, so he needs to lift from that performance.
Dawson is Too Strong
We expect Dawson to be too strong for Green, so bettors should lock in the -125 for Dawson to win by stoppage.
He should get the fight to the ground and not have too many problems producing a submission victory against Green, who is a solid wrestler, but not on the same level as his opponent.
It’s a fair price from the sportsbook, and he also possesses enough power to win by knockout. Therefore, even though Dawson isn’t a household name compared to some lightweight contenders, he shouldn’t be overlooked at UFC Fight Night.
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