Bundesliga Overview Matchday 33 Odds: Potential Title-Decider as Bayern Host Leipzig
Almost Nothing Certain With Two Games to Go
Potential Title-Decider as Bayern Host Leipzig
With just two games to go in the Bundesliga season, a champion is yet to be named. Ten-time defending champions Bayern Munich are just one point ahead of challengers Borussia Dortmund in the standings. Bayern have a difficult and massively important match vs. RB Leipzig on Saturday. While they can’t clinch the title on Saturday, a Bayern win and Borussia Dortmund loss on Sunday would mean the Bavarians successfully defend their title. At the same time, the fight for the top four and relegation continue. In this Bundesliga overview Matchday 33, we’ll cover the most important storylines and odds in the league this week.
Match of the Week
Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig
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The most exciting match on the German Bundesliga schedule this weekend is Bayern Munich vs. RB Leipzig. Although RB Leipzig are not in the title race, both teams have a lot to play for. A win clinches a Champions League berth for Leipzig, while a Bayern Munich win could potentially win the title.
Bayern enter the weekend as -350 favorites to win the Bundesliga title over Borussia Dortmund. The Bavarians are one-goal favorites for Saturday’s matchup and come in at -120 odds to cover the spread.
They’ll be without defender Alphonso Davies on Saturday and forward Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting could be a game-time decision. Still, the hosts are -190 favorites and are coming off a 6-0 win over Schalke. Serge Gnabry scored two goals in the rout and has found the net in three straight matches.
Leipzig came away with a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture and another displays +380 odds. They’ve struggled in this fixture, though, with just one win in 16 meetings. RB Leipzig +1 shows even odds as they’ve won their last four matches, in all competitions.
The visitors sit at +420 moneyline odds and pulled off a late comeback in Sunday’s 2-1 win over Werder Bremen. Dani Olmo is a doubt for this match but fellow midfielder Xaver Schlager recently returned from an ankle injury. Most importantly, Christopher Nkunku is beginning to look like himself again.
He and Bayern’s Serge Gnabry are two of the league’s top-five scorers. Although there’s a lot of attacking talent on these teams, under 3.5 goals sit at -115 odds. Only one of Leipzig’s last 15 Bundesliga games has finished with four or more goals.
Other Important Matches
Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin
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Hoffenheim still aren’t safe from relegation while Saturday’s opponents Union Berlin are nearing a first-ever UCL berth. Hosts Hoffenheim are in 14th place, just two points ahead of Schalke, who occupy the relegation playoff spot.
Hoffenheim fell 2-1 to Wolfsburg last Saturday and have lost three of their last four Bundesliga matches. Meanwhile, Union Berlin got an incredibly important 4-2 win over top-four challengers SC Freiburg on Matchday 32. Fourth-placed Union are three points ahead of Freiburg with two games to go.
Our Bundesliga Overview Matchday 33 notes that Union are actually slight underdogs for this match. Hoffenheim have one of the league’s worst home records, at 6-2-8, but are +150 moneyline favorites. Union, who are unbeaten in their last five meetings vs. Hoffenheim, are +170 moneyline underdogs.
This match is listed as a pick’em, with Hoffenheim at -115 ATS odds and Union pk at -105. Union are on a two-match winning streak vs. Hoffenheim and the previous two finished in draws. A draw shows +250 odds for this match.
Hoffenheim are missing some key defensive pieces in this one as Kevin Vogt and Pavel Kaderabek are out injured. Meanwhile, Stanley Nsoki is serving the second match of a two-game ban. In their last four home matches, though, Hoffenheim have averaged over two goals per game. Still, Union have the joint-best defensive record in the league and under 2.5 goals sit at -115 odds.
Hertha vs VfL Bochum
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Hertha Berlin are in the doldrums of the Bundesliga, with just 25 points from 32 matches. Although Hertha are in last place, they can still potentially escape the relegation zone with two wins to close out the season.
They’re currently six points from safety and five points from the relegation playoff spot. Saturday’s opponents, VfL Bochum, are in 15th place, six points ahead of Hertha. Bochum, who have the worst goal difference in the league, are just one point outside of the relegation playoff spot. So, this is one of the most important late-season Bundesliga matches for the relegation picture.
Bochum escaped the relegation zone with a 3-2 win over Augsburg on Saturday but are underdogs at Hertha. Hertha have gained 20 of their 25 points this season at home and are 0.5-goal favorites for this one.
The Berlin club sit at +115 ATS and moneyline odds and have won just one of their last 10 Bundesliga games. Bochum are just 2-2-12 away from home this season and show -135 ATS and +205 moneyline odds. Hertha’s defense has been disastrous over the last five matches.
They lost 5-2 to Koln last Friday and have conceded 3.4 goals per game over their last five matches. Over 2.5 goals come in at -140 odds as Bochum have also conceded over two goals per game in their last five.
These two teams have conceded a combined 138 goals this season but do have some talented offensive players. Dodi Lukebakio has scored 11 goals for Hertha this season, while Bochum’s Philipp Forster leads the league in assists per 90 minutes.
Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund
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The last time Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund faced off, the match finished in a seven-goal thriller. Dortmund came away with a 4-3 win back in January and have won three of the last four meetings.
Dortmund almost certainly need to win on the road on Sunday to stay in the title race and are favored to win.
Visitors Dortmund, who have scored 11 goals in their last two matches, are 1.5-goal favorites for this match. They come in at +105 ATS and -250 moneyline odds but at just +250 to win the Bundesliga title. Meanwhile, Augsburg +1.5 displays -125 odds as they’re not yet completely safe from relegation.
Augsburg are in 13th place, four points outside of the relegation playoff spot. Our Bundesliga Overview Matchday 33 notes that they’ll clinch a spot in next season’s Bundesliga with a win here.
They can also spoil Dortmund’s chances to win the Bundesliga title in the process. Still, Augsburg have won just one of their last nine matches and are +550 underdogs here. Just one of the last nine meetings have finished in a draw but one is priced at +425 odds.
Multiple Dortmund players have stepped up in big ways over the last few weeks. Donyell Malen has scored eight goals in the last eight matches and leads the team with nine goals this season. Meanwhile, Sebastien Haller, who missed half of the season while recovering from testicular cancer, has scored three goals in his last two matches.
Midfielder Jude Bellingham is also one of the most wanted young players in the world. He’s expected to leave in the Summer and could potentially cap off his Dortmund career with a title. Although Dortmund have scored 19 goals in their last four matches, under 3.5 goals display -120 odds.
