UCL Round 16 Matchups: Second Leg Odds
Napoli, Real Madrid Well on Way to Quarters
Man City All Square vs RB Leipzig
If there’s one lesson to be learned from the Champions League: expect the unexpected. Liverpool led Real Madrid 2-0 in the first leg of their round of 16 matchup at Anfield, which looked to be over in the first half. Then, Real Madrid scored five unanswered goals to take a 5-2 lead into the second leg.
Napoli also managed to get out to a 2-0 lead at Eintracht Frankfurt. The week’s most competitive fixtures should be Manchester City vs. RB Leipzig and FC Porto vs. Inter Milan. Man City and RB Leipzig are all square at one, while Inter take a one-goal lead to Portugal. Now, let’s take a look at the second leg odds for this week’s UCL Round 16 matchups.
UCL Matches This Week:
Manchester City vs RB Leipzig
(1-1 agg.)
Day/Time:
Penalties were key in both Manchester City and RB Leipzig’s weekend matches. Erling Haaland converted following a foul on Ilkay Gundogan to give City a 1-0 win over Crystal Palace. Meanwhile, Leipzig’s Janis Blaswich saved a Borussia Monchengladbach penalty with the score level at zero.
Leipzig went on to win 3-0, as Timo Werner, Emil Forsberg and Josko Gvardiol got on the scoresheet. Both City and Leipzig are carrying momentum into Tuesday’s decisive second leg Champions League round of 16 match.
As hosts, Manchester City are big favorites at the Etihad. Pep Guardiola’s side are favored by 1½ goals and come in at +105 odds to cover. Meanwhile, City show -265 moneyline odds, corresponding to an implied 72.6 percent chance of victory.
Man City came in first place in the Group G Champions League standings and are one of only three undefeated teams remaining in the competition. RB Leipzig finished in second place in Group F and are unbeaten in their last five matches in the competition. In the first leg, Josko Gvardiol’s goal for Leipzig canceled out Riyad Mahrez’s first half strike. Another draw would send the fixture into extra time and one sits at +415 odds.
Leipzig are +700 underdogs to advance to the quarterfinals outright but do display -125 ATS odds. Manchester City have been nearly unassailable at home this season, with an 18-1-1 record in all competitions. It’ll certainly be an uphill battle for Leipzig to get all three points but they’ve lost just once on the road since September.
Unfortunately, Leipzig will be missing key forward Christopher Nkunku and midfielder Xaver Schlager in this match. Meanwhile, Pep Guardiola should have all of his stars at his disposal for Tuesday’s match. This one is expected to be a relatively low-scoring match like the first leg. Under three goals sit at -115 odds here.
FC Porto vs Inter Milan
(0-1 agg.)
Day/Time:
Despite getting a 1-0 win over FC Porto at the San Siro a few weeks ago, Inter Milan’s job is not done yet. The Nerazzurri do show -350 odds to advance to the quarterfinals but have a difficult trip to Portugal ahead of them. In this match between two of Europe’s most storied clubs, FC Porto are incredibly slight favorites.
The hosts come in at +160 odds to win, while Inter Milan sit at +165 odds in this UCL Round 16 matchups. Romelu Lukaku found the net for Inter in the reverse fixture and he also got on the scoresheet over the weekend. However, Inter fell 2-1 to Spezia to go 18 points behind leaders Napoli.
Meanwhile, FC Porto’s Mehdi Taremi scored the winning penalty to defeat Estoril 3-2 on Friday. Like Inter, FC Porto are in second place in their domestic league but still have a shot to overcome Benfica.
Porto are looking for their third UCL quarterfinals appearance in the last five seasons and display +250 odds to advance. Sérgio Conceição’s team sits at -115 odds to cover as a pick’em as well. After defeating Porto a few weeks back, Inter now hold a 3-1-1 record over the Portuguese team in the Champions League all-time. The Nerazzurri, who will likely be missing Milan Skriniar and Joaquin Correa, come in at -105 ATS odds.
A draw would be enough for Inter to advance to their first quarterfinals appearance since the 2010-11 season. A deadlock is currently priced at +250 odds and expect FC Porto to commit numbers forward if the match is level in the closing stages.
In two previous meetings at the Estadio do Dragao, Porto are undefeated at 1-1-0. In 15 matches in 2023, FC Porto have failed to score just twice. Under 2½ goals also show -120 odds for the match as Inter have averaged 1.4 goals per game over their last five matches.
Real Madrid vs Liverpool
(5-2 agg.)
Day/Time:
One of the most anticipated fixtures on the UEFA Champions League schedule was Real Madrid vs. Liverpool. Then, Real Madrid dismantled the Reds 5-2 at Anfield as Vinicius Jr. and Karim Benzema scored two goals each. Liverpool led 2-0 14 minutes in but the defending Champions League winners refused to give in.
Now, all Real Madrid need to do to advance is avoid a three-goal defeat at the Santiago Bernabeu. They have failed to win three of their four matches since defeating Liverpool in February but are -4000 favorites to go through.
Los Blancos enter this pick’em at -135 odds, while Liverpool display +115 odds to cover. Liverpool have a history of overturning huge deficits in the Champions League. Their 4-0 win over Barcelona in 2019 overturned a three-goal deficit en route to winning the UCL. Jurgen Klopp’s Reds also beat Manchester United 7-0 last week, with their offensive potential apparent.
Their inconsistency this season has been frustrating, though, as they fell 1-0 to relegation favorites Bournemouth last Saturday. Liverpool are +185 underdogs here and have lost their last two matches at the Santiago Bernabeu. Notably, Real Madrid haven’t lost at home all season and are +130 moneyline favorites for Wednesday’s match.
Carlo Ancelotti’s Real came back from 1-0 down on Saturday to defeat Mallorca 3-1 but have averaged just one goal per game since beating Liverpool 5-2. This is expected to be another shootout, though, as over three goals come in at -115 odds.
A draw does absolutely nothing for Liverpool and is priced at +285 odds. Liverpool midfielder Thiago Alcantara is out until the international break while defender Joe Gomez could also miss out. Gomez was subbed out in the first leg in favor of Joel Matip anyhow. Benzema missed Saturday’s match for Real and he, David Alaba and Ferland Mendy are doubts for Wednesday.
Napoli vs Eintracht Frankfurt
(2-0 agg.)
Day/Time:
Heading into Wednesday’s match, Eintracht Frankfurt are winless in their last four matches. They’ve got their backs against the wall vs. Napoli as Frankfurt carry a two-goal deficit into this second leg fixture. Plus, Frankfurt’s main man Randal Kolo Muani is out due to a suspension.
Meanwhile, Napoli bounced back from a loss vs. Lazio and defeated Atalanta 2-0 on Saturday. Kvicha Kvaratskhelia scored his 11th goal of the season for the Serie A leaders. The precocious Georgian is closing in on double digit goals and assists in his first season in Italian football.
The UCL Round 16 matchups oddsprice Napoli as one-goal favorites for Wednesday’s match. The Partenopei show -125 odds to cover and -200 odds to win the match. Napoli have lost by a multi-goal margin just once this season and it was a 2-0 loss to Liverpool after already qualifying for the UCL knockout stage.
Luciano Spalletti’s XI should be motivated here to make their first-ever Champions League quarterfinals appearance. Kvaratskhelia and Victor Osimhen are set to play big roles again, just like in the first leg. However, goalkeeper Alex Meret and defender Kim Min-jae are questionable. Matteo Politano could replace the injured Hirving Lozano on the right wing as well.
Eintracht Frankfurt, who are +550 moneyline underdogs, have their fair share of injuries as well. Midfielders Jesper Lindstrom is out until after the international break, while Ansgar Knauff could return in time for Wednesday’s match.
With Kolo Muani suspended and some key players potentially out, Eintracht Frankfurt +1 displays +105 odds. Napoli will want to win in front of their home fans but a draw would be a fine result for Luciano Spalletti’s men. A deadlock is listed at +340 odds while over 2½ goals come in at -130 odds.
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