Marlins vs Brewers Preview: Marlins Hit With Injury Bug
Marlins Stars Placed on Injured List While In Deep Playoff Race
The Milwaukee Brewers are just trying to hold on to the NL Central. The Brewers have a 3–game lead in the NL Central in front of the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds.
Meanwhile, the Miami Marlins won’t win the NL East. However, they’ll compete against those other NL Central teams for a chance at the NL Wild Card for the remainder of the season.
This series has a lot of playoff implications in the National League. Every potential NL Wild Card team will be keeping tabs on this MLB matchup.
Here’s our Marlins vs Brewers preview for the four-game in the NL to begin the week.
Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers 
Day/Time:
Location: American Family Field
Marlins Hit With Injury Bug
The Miami Marlins are in the middle of a significant playoff race in the National League. They’ve been in and out of the NL Wild Card baseball standings throughout the entire second half of the season.
But they’ve been hit with the injury bug at the worst time.
The Marlins announced earlier last week that last year’s NL Cy Young pitcher, Sandy Alcantara, was put on the 15-day injured list with a right forearm flexor strain.
Alcantara hasn’t been as special this season. He’s only gone 7-12 with a 4.14 ERA. But he would’ve been a solid veteran pitcher who could go deep in games and save the bullpen.
Last year, Alcantara had a 2.28 ERA with a .98 WHIP in 228.2 innings. He’s already thrown 184.2 innings this season and still has a WAR of 3.0. So, while he’s not the same as last year, this injury late in the season will hurt the Marlins.
However, the injury news didn’t stop there. Jorge Soler, Miami’s designated hitter and outfielder, went on the 10-day injured list with a right oblique strain.
Soler went on the injured list with 35 home runs and 71 RBIs this MLB season. He mostly hit in the middle of the order and was Miami’s best power slugger. His OPS of .842 is currently 21st in the MLB.
The right-hander slugged hit 48 home runs in 2019. But he’s never hit more than 14 in any other season but this year. That’s mainly due to Soler’s injury history.
In 2019, he played in 162 games. But he only played in 100+ games one other season despite starting his career in 2014.
After 126 games this season, the injury bug got to him. I guess, at this point, it’s no surprise. But it will sting for the Marlins, who are looking to push for a playoff spot.
They’ll be without arguably their best pitcher and best hitter in the most significant portion of the season.
The William Contreras Deal Worked Out for Milwaukee
In mid-December, the Milwaukee Brewers were involved in a three-way trade with the Atlanta Braves and Oakland Athletics.
The Brewers added C William Contreras from the Braves and RHP Joel Payamps from the A’s. The Braves essentially traded away Contreras to bring in C Sean Murphy from the Athletics.
The Athletics got speedster OF Esteury Ruiz from the Brewers, C Manny Pina, LHP Kyle Muller, and other pitching prospects from the Braves.
Contreras was a first-time All-Star in 2022 with the Braves. He was starting to develop into a consistent hitting catcher.
In his All-Star season. Contreras hit .278 in 97 games, with 20 home runs and 45 RBIs.
With the Brewers this year, Contreras has hit nearly 70 RBIs and will likely play around 140 games for the Brewers this season. His OBP is also above .350, just like last season. And it’s not like Contreras is old. He’s 25 and has an even higher ceiling than this.
Meanwhile, Esteury Ruiz has hit .252 with the Athletics, including just four home runs. He’s added nearly 60 stolen bases but only has an OBP of just above .300. If he’s only going to get on base 30% of the time, Ruiz will lose some value.
The Brewers made a solid move for their ball club. They’re in the postseason, and the Athletics are discussing leaving Oakland.
Below are the early odds for the Marlins vs Brewers preview in Game 1.
Early Odds: RL Milwaukee +1.5 (+125), ML Milwaukee -160, O/U -110/-110
âš¾ Game 1 âš¾
Jesus Luzardo vs Brandon Woodruff
In Game 1 of the Marlins vs Brewers preview, Marlins‘ left-hander, Jesus Luzardo, will take the ball. Luzardo has struck out nearly 25% of batters in the last 30 days. However, he’s also allowed a .196 ISO and wOBA of .328 to his previous 105 batters. Luzardo has been worse against lefties. However, he typically faces more righties as a left-handed pitcher.
Luzardo will face off against Brandon Woodruff of the Brewers. Over the last month, Woodruff has struck out over 29% of batters and has held teams to a .234 wOBA. His ground ball rate is low, and his fly ball rate is a bit high. However, Woodruff won’t rack up strikeouts against the Marlins.
The Marlins will face three righties in this series, and the projected lineup has only hit a .160 ISO and wOBA of .307 against righties over the last month. Still, the lineup has limited strikeouts very well. They’re just not working out many walks.
Jake Burger, Jazz Chisholm, and Jesus Sanchez are the three power bats to watch out for with the Marlins against righties.
Meanwhile, there are also three bets to look out for with the Brewers against lefties. William Contreras, who we profiled above, has smacked a .368 ISO and wOBA of .542 against lefties over the last month. Carlos Santana has put up nearly identical stats against lefties, along with Mark Canha, who was a quality MLB Trade Deadline acquisition.
The Brewers are sitting at -160, with the Marlins at +125. The total is 7.5, with both sides at -110. Typically, Brandon Woodruff pitches to low MLB scores. He’ll shut down the Marlins, while the Brewers should score enough to earn the win. Back the Brewers.
âš¾ Game 2 âš¾
TBD vs Freddy Peralta
The Marlins haven’t announced their starter for Game 2. It’ll either be Bryan Hoeing, Edward Cabrera, or Enmanuel De Jesus. This will be Sandy Alcantara’s spot in the rotation.
De Jesus was just called up over the weekend. However, when Alcantara went on the injured list, Cabrera got the recall. Finally, Hoeing has been coming out of the bullpen but has some starting experience and has pitched well enough over the last month to get consideration. Cabrera makes the most sense in this spot.
We could see all three pitchers in this game, for all we know.
On the other hand, Freddy Peralta will give it a go for the Brewers in Game 2. Peralta has put up sensational numbers recently. In the last month, Peralta has held teams to a .098 ISO and wOBA of .220. He’s also struck out 36% of batters over his previous 111 batters faced.
The right-hander has kept line drives and fly balls down and continues to impress in the second half.
On the other hand, the Brewers haven’t done much damage against righties over the last month. Only Willy Adames has put up consistent numbers, with an above-average ISO and wOBA.
But with so much uncertainty with Miami in Game 2, the best MLB bets today include the Brewers.
âš¾ Game 3 âš¾
Day/Time:
Location: Braxton Garrett vs Colin Rea
In the third game, Braxton Garrett will get the start for the Marlins. He’s also a lefty who has allowed a .152 ISO and wOBA of .291 to his last 109 batters. His strikeout rate has dipped from 23.5% on the season to just 13.8% over the previous month. But he’s kept his walks down and earned a lot of ground balls.
Garrett has also limited fly balls and line drives to below 23%, which is also really good, over the last 30 days. However, he’s still allowed 55.3% of hard contact in that same time frame.
On the other hand, Colin Rea will get his third start since his return from the injured list. Rea’s strikeout rate has improved. He had only struck out about 21% of batters this season. But that rate has jumped after he added two straight games with six strikeouts against the Phillies and Yankees.
Rea still has a 5.02 ERA on the season. He’s not a top-tier starter by any stretch of the imagination. But he’ll give the Brewers a chance at winning games. That’s all that matters.
âš¾ Game 4 âš¾
Eury Perez vs Wide Miley
In the final game of the series, Eury Perez will get the call. Perez is a rookie pitcher who has been electric for the Marlins this season. He’s struck out nearly 30% of batters in the last month while holding teams to a .290 wOBA.
He’ll take on left-hander Wade Miley, who has only struck out 11.7% over the last 30 days. He’s also allowed a .308 ISO and wOBA of .379 to his previous 74 righties. Those lefties in the Marlins lineup should have success. However, the Marlins’ best hitters are typically right-handed.
We’ll likely get a low-scoring game on Thursday.
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