Padres vs Astros Betting Preview: Houston Gaining Steam Atop AL West
Fresh off Sweep of Texas, Houston Holds 1.0-Game Division Lead
Looking to build their lead atop the American League West, the Houston Astros will host the San Diego Padres for a three-game weekend series at Minute Maid Park.
Houston is -1.5 (+136) on the run line and a -130 favorite to win outright in Friday’s series opener, while San Diego is priced +1.5 (-162) ATS and +110 on the moneyline. The projected total is 8.5, with the Under juiced to -105.
Read on as we break down both teams in our Padres vs Astros betting preview.
Padres vs Astros 
Date & Time:
Location: Minute Maid Park
Houston Building Case for Division Title
The Houston Astros strengthened their bid to win another American League West title this week, sweeping the rival Texas Rangers on the road. Houston hit double-digits in all three games and outscored Texas 39-10 for the series per baseball scores. In doing so, the Astros (80-61) opened a three-game lead on Texas while remaining 1.0 games ahead of the second-place Seattle Mariners.
Can they hold on? Oddsmakers expect them to, pricing them a -200 favorite to win the division. The Mariners are next on the board at +285. Houston is also a +300 favorite to return to the World Series and among the top picks to win it all. With +600 odds, Houston trails only the Braves (+300) and the Dodgers (+600).
Notably, Houston is 7-3 against the run line over the last 10 games and owns the third-best run differential in the majors at plus-122. Keep that in mind when assessing the odds in our Padres vs Astros betting preview.
Padres Playing Out the String
Without question, the San Diego Padres remain among the biggest disappointments in baseball. Despite a $253 million payroll, San Diego is sitting in fourth place in the National League West baseball standings with a record of 66-75. They’re still 7.0 games out of the wild card, leaving little hope of a turnaround over the season’s final month.
After dropping two of three games at home to the wild card-leading Philadelphia Phillies, the Padres now have six games against legitimate World Series contenders in the Astros and Dodgers.
Notably, San Diego has the fifth-best run differential (plus-64) in the NL. But the Padres are 0-11 in extra innings, one loss from matching the expansion 1969 Montreal Expos for the worst record in extra-inning games in a single season.
Odds Outlook
Houston is 72-69 ATS but just 29-40 at Minute Maid Park, producing the fourth-worst cover rate (42%) at home in MLB. San Diego has been slightly worse, with a record of 69-72 ATS, including 32-34 on the road. Notably, San Diego has also gone under the projected total 56.1% of the time, while Houston has done so at a 46.4% clip. That’s important to remember when assessing the odds in our Padres vs Astros betting preview.
âš¾ Game 1 âš¾
Hunter Brown vs Blake Snell
Friday, 8:10 p.m. ET
After a brief yet solid cameo in 2022, Brown has struggled in his first full season. He’s 10-10 with a 4.53 ERA. He’s been hit particularly hard of late, with ERAs of 5.92 in July and 6.23 in August. He faces Snell, who is 12-9 with an MLB-best 2.50 ERA. Snell’s 201 strikeouts rank third behind Atlanta’s Spencer Strider (250) and Toronto’s Kevin Gausman (207). As such, Snell is currently a -200 favorite to win his second Cy Young, ahead of Chicago’s Justin Steele (+180) according to MLB betting odds.
âš¾ Game 2 âš¾
Christian Javier vs Seth Lugo
Saturday, 7:10 p.m. ET
Javier is 9-3 with a 4.65 ERA. Like Brown, he’s had a tough go of it this summer, with ERAs above 6.00 in both July and August. The Padres will counter with Lugo, who is 6-6 with a 3.49 ERA. Lugo threw six shutout innings in his last start, Sunday against the San Francisco Giants, and is unbeaten since Aug. 7.
âš¾ Game 3 âš¾
J.P. France vs Rich Hill
Sunday, 2:10 p.m. ET
France allowed five runs over five innings in his last start, Labor Day against the Texas Rangers, and has a 6.49 ERA since the beginning of August. For the season, the rookie right-hander is 10-5 with a 3.72 ERA. He opposes Hill, who is 7-14 with a 5.60 ERA. Acquired at the trade deadline, the 43-year-old Hill is baseball’s oldest active player.
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