Marlins vs Padres Betting Odds: Miami Needing to Get Back on Track

Looking to climb back into the playoff picture, the Miami Marlins will begin a three-game series Monday against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. San Diego is -1.5 (+105) on the run line for the opener and a -180 favorite to win outright, with Miami priced at +165. The projected total is 8.5 juiced to the over at -115.

Read on as we break down the series in our Marlins vs Padres betting odds preview.

Marlins Starting to Flounder

The Miami Marlins will need to pick up the pace again to return to the playoffs. After dropping four of their last five games, the Marlins are now on the outside looking in on the NL wild-card race. At 64-61, tied with the Cincinnati Reds and Arizona Diamondbacks, the Marlins are 1.0 games back of the Chicago Cubs for the third and final spot entering MLB standings today.

Can they leapfrog the Cubs? Oddsmakers are a bit pessimistic, pricing them +135 to make the postseason and -165 to miss it. Fortunately, 10 of the Marlins’ next 12 games are against teams below .500, a brief respite after series against a slew of World Series contenders, including the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers.

It bodes well for the Marlins that reigning NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara seems to be back on track. According to MLB player stats, after struggling to a 4.59 ERA in June, Alcantara has thrown two complete games over his last four starts and went eight innings another time. Over his last nine appearances, his ERA is 2.59.

On the other hand, closer David Robertson’s issues continue. Robertson has given up seven runs in seven innings in August and is just 3-of-5 in save opportunities as a Marlin.

Padres’ Problems Beyond Repair

The San Diego Padres continue to fade. After dropping three of four at home to the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Padres are 6.0 games out of the NL wild card at 59-66. As such, they’re now a +600 longshot to make the playoffs.

Their underperforming offense deserves much of the blame. They’ve scored five runs or fewer in 10 of their last 12 games and rank just 15th in runs overall. They are also 15th in OPS and 23rd in batting average.

Despite boasting the fourth-best run differential in the NL (plus-57), San Diego is sinking because of a 6-19 record in one-run games. The Padres are also 0-10 in extra innings.

Can they fix that? Perhaps, but at this point, it’ll likely be too late to matter. The Padres have dug themselves too deep and appear destined to go down as arguably baseball’s biggest disappointment in 2023.

Odds Outlook

Miami has been among the least profitable teams for bettors this season, going 57-58 against the MLB spread. Its 45.6% cover rate is tied for the fourth-lowest in the majors, trailing only the Philadelphia Phillies (41.9%), Kansas City Royals (40.3%), and New York Mets (40.8%). San Diego hasn’t fared much better, with only a 60-65 record ATS. That includes a 29-34 mark at home. The Padres have also failed to hit the Over 43.6% of the time, compared to 46.3% for Miami. That’s important to remember when assessing the Marlins vs Padres betting odds.

After missing six weeks with a shoulder injury, Wacha returned to throw five shutout innings in a 10-3 win over the Baltimore Orioles last Tuesday. Wacha has been a bright spot when healthy, going 9-2 with a 2.68 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. He faces Weathers, whom the Padres dealt to the Marlins at the trade deadline for first baseman Garrett Cooper and a prospect. The left-hander has struggled mightily, going 1-7 with a 6.89 ERA.

Snell has solidified himself among the NL Cy Young favorites, going 10-8 with a 2.65 ERA. The left-hander ranks second in the NL and fourth in MLB with 176 strikeouts in 136 innings. His +225 Cy Young odds are second to only Arizona’s Zac Gallen (+175). The Marlins will counter with Luzardo, who is 8-8 with a 4.13 ERA. After a strong July (2.68 ERA), Luzardo has been hit hard in August (11.68 ERA).

Hill, MLB’s oldest active player at 43, is 7-13 with a 5.18 ERA. The Southpaw has lost all three of his starts since being acquired at the trade deadline from the Pittsburgh Pirates. His counterpart, Alcantara, is 6-10 with a 4.11 ERA. Alcantara is second in MLB in innings pitched (164.1) but has struggled to recapture his Cy Young form from last season. Keep that in mind when assessing the Marlins vs Padres betting odds.

For MLB betting news, odds, analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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