Marlins vs Red Sox Preview: Analyzing the Key Matchup Factors

Miami Hopes to Overcome 6-21 Mark Against Boston, 2-15 at Fenway

June 26, 2023 131 3 minutes readMLB Picks & Parlays

Marlins vs Red Sox Preview: Analyzing the Key Matchup Factors — Brennan Asplen/Getty Images/AFP

Alcantara Having Worst Season of Career
Red Sox Have Dominated NL East Teams
Hard To Buck History

Our Marlins vs Red Sox preview starts with a review of baseball’s statistical leaders. Neither of these teams is among the MLB home run leaders, an important number because it allows us to handicap this match-up without worrying about too many massive innings due to the long ball.

Boston is 20th in the majors with 83 bombs, and Miami is 25th with 72. Game one features Sandy Alcantara (2-6, 5.08 era) starting for the Marlins, and Garrett Whitlock (4-2, 4.50 era) for the Red Sox. We continue our Marlins vs. Red Sox betting preview with a look at both clubs from a betting perspective. The Marlins vs Red Sox matchup promises an exciting clash between two teams hungry for a victory.

Alcantara Having Worst Season of Career

We’ve had this discussion many times when it comes to the defending Cy Young Award winner, Sandy Alcantara. Bettors seem to rush to the window when Alcantara gets the start, a move that has always been perplexing to us because, in six MLB seasons, Alcantara is 57-68 in his career, costing bettors 460 units.

Only twice has the Dominican Republic native produced a winning season (2020, 2022). In his last five starts, Alcantara is 3-2 but allowed less than four earned runs just once. As an underdog this season, Alcantara is 1-4 (-305 units).

That adds to a three-year road record of 13-26 (.333) -1058 units. Only eight other pitchers have a worse road record in that span. As we continue our Marlins vs Red Sox preview, there’s not much to like about betting on the Marlins.

Red Sox Have Dominated NL East Teams

Garrett Whitlock gets the start in game one for Boston. Whitlock has three straight quality starts after going at least six innings against the Twins, Rockies, and Yankees. Whitlock owns a 4.50 era, but in his last five starts, that number has dropped to 3.48.

That is good enough for an offense that has given the righty more than four runs of support in half of his start, and 5.25 runs in his last four starts. Boston hopes to continue their mastery against the NL East with 80 wins in their last 117 games (.684). Since 2014, Boston is 71-34 (.676) against the NL East (+3163 units). Only the Atlanta Braves (373-299, +4641 units) have had more success against the NL East than the Red Sox.

The only losing season for Boston against their National League counterparts was last season (1-3, -175). Other than 2022, the last time Boston had a losing record against the NL East was in 2011. Let’s conclude our Marlins vs Red Sox preview with our official selection.

Hard to Buck History

Most of the time, MLB betting picks don’t require a great deal of thought because, unlike other sports, baseball is about identifying streaks and riding them out. The run Boston has had against the NL East is hard to ignore especially when the opening number is enticing.

The Sox are a consensus -109 favorite, but you can bet that this number will deflate as the public races to back Alcantara. No one has contributed to this success than Miami who have dropped 21 of their last 27 meeting in Boston. The Bosox have been terrific at home against teams with a winning record, winning 20 of their last 26. Miami is 15-41 against the American League East and 16-39 the game after a day off.

Our official selection is the Boston Red Sox at -109/101 but we’re going to take it one step further by laying the 1.5, to give us a nice payout. That does it for our Marlins vs Red Sox preview, we wish you all the best with your wagers this week.