MLB: Breaking Down The Odds to Win World Series 2022

Four Teams Compose MLB's Elite Tier

It’s true for any sport but, particularly in MLB, any team can win the championship in any season. Of course, not any team can be good enough to make the postseason and hoist the Commissioner’s Trophy; however, considering how long each season is and how variable every game can be, there is a lot of value in betting on teams who might not seem like favorites at the All-Star break. With that said, the current odds to win the World Series 2022, shows a liking to four teams.

The New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, Houston Astros, and New York Mets are the only teams with better than +1000 odds to take home the trophy in late October (or early November). It makes sense because those four teams have been the best in baseball thus far but, in terms of predicting who the 2022 World Series winner will be, it might not be all that instructive.

So, it is smarter to take one (or two) of those teams to win, or is it better to pick a bunch of teams from the field? Let’s dive into that question to try and make you as much money as possible.

The Top Dogs

New York Yankees (+375) and Houston Astros (+550)

The American League is, even more, top-heavy than the National League as the Yankees have been dominant all season and are running away with a very strong division… while the Astros have been unstoppable since the start of May and look to be well on their way to another AL West title. They are, far and away, the best teams in the AL and it would be a big surprise if neither of them won the pennant. That explains why their respective odds to win World Series 2022 are low compared to the rest of the field.

Even though they are prohibitive favorites, the Yankees and Astros do provide good collective value to win the World Series. So, it’s not a terrible strategy to take futures on both teams.

Los Angeles Dodgers (+450) and New York Mets (+700)

While the Dodgers and Mets haven’t been as good as the Yankees and Astros in terms of clearly being the NL’s best teams, both have basically led their respective divisions from the get-go and have been the most consistent teams in the Senior Circuit. Los Angeles has turned it on over the past few weeks as the Dodgers’ pitching has locked in. The Mets looked like they were going to cruise to an easy NL East title but have had a mediocre couple of weeks and have been hit by the injury bug.

It’s warranted for both Los Angeles and New York to have the best NL odds to win a title, however, the choice to stick with those teams isn’t as clear-cut as it is in the AL. The Dodgers’ high-powered lineup isn’t running on all cylinders just yet and the Mets’ offense has hit a wall as of late. Both teams are really good and are certainly good picks to win the World Series but they have more flaws than the top teams in the AL.

The Field

Atlanta Braves (+1000)

Credit to the Braves, who have rebounded from a very mediocre start to be just 1.5 games behind the Mets for first place in the NL East. The defending World Series champs deserve to be considered among MLB’s best teams, especially with such a powerful lineup, great top-of-the-rotation arms, and a strong bullpen. Of course, it helps to win 14 games in a row but Atlanta has been great overall for nearly two months, even without Ozzie Albies for a good chunk of that span (and with Mike Soroka still hurt).

The Braves are the best non-Dodgers or Mets team in the NL so nabbing them at +1000 is a smart play.

Toronto Blue Jays and San Diego Padres (+1400)

It’s somewhat surprising to see the Blue Jays’ and Padres’ odds to win World Series 2022 be the same, considering how their seasons have gone. Toronto has been miserable recently and is in fourth place in an AL East that the Blue Jays were expected, (by many) to win. They look like a team that has yet to play its best baseball, though, so there is plenty of reason to think Toronto could upset the Yankees or Astros in the playoffs and have a shot at a title. The issue is that they might not even make the playoffs at this rate, even with how top-heavy the AL is.

As for the Padres, the lineup without Fernando Tatís Jr. has been lacking at times. So, San Diego is “only” 11 games above .500. That’s still a big win considering that Tatís Jr. hasn’t even made his season debut yet. With him in the lineup and the starting rotation staying healthy, San Diego could be a strong sleeper pick as a World Series underdog. That team is loaded with talent.

Milwaukee Brewers (+2000) and St. Louis Cardinals (+2800)

The Brewers and Cardinals, both playoff teams in 2021 – are neck-and-neck in an NL Central that it’s just a two-team race at this point. Neither Milwaukee nor St. Louis has been able to separate from the pack in a meaningful way as the Brewers’ offense hasn’t been able to match the stellar performance of the pitching staff and the Cardinals have relied too heavily on their top two hitters players, Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt.

That’s why both are significant underdogs to win the World Series despite being in a good position to qualify for the postseason again. They haven’t shown enough consistency in all facets of the game to really be considered on the same level as the Dodgers, Mets, or Braves. The top of the Brewers’ rotation, though, is as good as it gets and is always scary in a playoff series but Milwaukee has won just one playoff series in their last four postseasons. The offense just might not be good enough.

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