Orioles vs Twins Series Preview: Youth Movement Sparking Baltimore

The Minnesota Twins will host the Baltimore Orioles for a three-game series at Target Field, beginning Friday. The Twins own a .511 winning percentage, worst among first-place teams, but have played particularly well of late. Can they increase their lead in the American League Central? We break down the matchup in our Orioles vs Twins series preview.

Youth Movement Grows

Outfielder Colton Cowser, the fifth overall pick in the 2021 amateur draft, made his MLB debut in Baltimore’s 6-3 win over the Yankees on Wednesday. Batting seventh and playing left field, Cowser went 1-for-3 with a walk and an RBI.

The 23-year-old Cowser was hitting .330 with 10 home runs and 40 RBI for Triple-A Norfolk this season. Cowser’s the second top prospect Baltimore has called up in the last month, following infielder Jordan Westburg.

Despite losing six of their last eight, the Orioles entered today’s MLB schedule still firmly in the mix for a playoff spot. At 50-35, the Orioles are second in the American League East (5.0 games behind Tampa Bay) and lead the MLB Wild Card standings. Oddsmakers have priced them at -140 to make the playoffs.

Cowser is currently ranked the 14th-best prospect in baseball by MLB Pipeline, while Westburg is 32nd. Overall, the Orioles have eight top-100 prospects, including 19-year-old shortstop Jackson Holliday. Holliday — the son of former All-Star Matt Holliday — is widely regarded as the best prospect in the sport. He’s currently hitting .310 with a .932 OPS for High A-Aberdeen.

The Orioles rank 11th in runs and 15th in home runs, but it’s been a struggle of late. They’ve scored just 24 runs over their last eight games. With All-Star outfielder Austin Hays currently out with a bruised hip, it made sense for the Orioles to dip into their rich minor league system for offensive help.

Twins Staying Steady

Despite being just two games above .500, the Twins continue to sit atop the AL Central. At 45-43, the Twins entered Thursday 2.0 games ahead of the Guardians. As such, Minnesota has seen its odds of winning the division jump from +300 in spring training to -220.

There’s legitimate reason to believe the Twins will stay in first. For starters, they’re the only team in the Central with a positive run differential (plus-46). On top of that, their pitching IS elite. With Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez atop their rotation, they’ve allowed the fewest runs in baseball. They’ve also struck out the most batters in MLB while allowing the fifth-fewest home runs.

Lopez — acquired from Miami in an offseason trade for AL batting champion Luis Arraez — was brilliant Wednesday, spinning his first career shutout in a 5-0 victory over Kansas City. Lopez allowed just four hits and walked none while striking out 12.

Minnesota is 5-1 over its last six games. Notably, the Twins took two of three from the Orioles last weekend at Camden Yards. Keep that in mind as you assess the odds in our Orioles vs Twins series preview.

Odds Outlook

With a record of 50-35 against the run line, Baltimore has been among the most profitable teams for bettors. This season, only three clubs have fared better ATS: Reds (54-33), Diamondbacks (53-34) and Rangers (52-35). Conversely, the Twins are just 43-45 ATS.

The Orioles have been especially impressive on the road, going 29-12 ATS and an AL-best 24-17 outright.

Ober has been terrific atop the Twins rotation, registering a 2.70 ERA and 0.95 WHIP across 13 starts. The 6-foot-9 right-hander outdueled Kyle Bradish in his last start, throwing seven shutout innings in a 1-0 victory over Baltimore on July 1. He allowed just two hits while striking out eight.

Baltimore will counter with Irvin, who owns an unsightly 6.32 ERA but has been better of late. The 29-year-old southpaw held Minnesota to one run over five innings in a 2-1 victory on July 2. His ERA in June was 4.05.

The Orioles are a +134 underdog to win outright. Minnesota is priced at -145. The projected total has remained steady at 8.5 (-125/+105).Be sure to keep an eye on line movement as you assess our Orioles vs Twins series preview.

Gray leads the AL and ranks third in baseball with a 2.50 ERA. He threw six scoreless innings his last start, July 2 against Baltimore, and has allowed three runs or fewer in all 17 appearances this season. He is priced at +4000 to win the AL Cy Young, sharing odds with fellow Twin Joe Ryan.

Wells has been outstanding as well, leading baseball with a 0.90 WHIP. Opponents are hitting an MLB-low .188 against Wells, who is 6-4 with a 3.19 ERA.

Minnesota will turn to Ryan in the final game before the All-Star break. The 27-year-old right-hander has been among baseball’s best pitchers, ranking second in WHIP (0.98). He also has eight wins, a 3.42 ERA and 114 strikeouts in 102.2 innings.

Ryan faces Gibson, who is 8-6 with a 4.73 ERA.

For MLB betting news, Major League Baseball odds and analysis, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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