Padres vs Pirates Series Preview: Will San Diego Continue to Disappoint?

The Pittsburgh Pirates and San Diego Padres will open a three-game series on Tuesday at PNC Park. Both clubs have struggled of late, though there’s still plenty at stake as summer marches along. The Padres, in particular, are trying to avoid the dubious distinction of being arguably baseball’s biggest disappointment of 2023. Read on for our Padres vs Pirates series preview.

More of the Same for Padres

Can San Diego turn around its season? Or are the big-money Padres destined to be a colossal disappointment? The Padres dropped two of three games to the Nationals over the weekend to fall to 37-41, 9.5 games behind first-place Arizona in the NL West.

It’s certainly not the start the Padres envisioned when they raised payroll to $248 million, third-highest in baseball behind the Mets ($353 million) and Yankees ($276). The Padres haven’t gotten much bang for their buck, and enough time’s passed that it’s fair to wonder if they are capable of turning things around.

San Diego’s underperforming lineup deserves much of the blame. The Padres haven’t been able to produce with any consistency, ranking bottom 10 in runs scored and batting average. Shortstop Xander Bogaerts (.730 OPS) and third baseman Manny Machado (.706 OPS) both have struggled to get going, as has first baseman Jake Cronenworth (.663 OPS).

The Padres are still only 6.5 games out of the third Wild Card with three months remaining. However, their long-term outlook has dimmed considerably. Their Major League Baseball World Series odds have dropped from +1000 in March to +2000.

Buccos Trending Down

Pittsburgh has crashed back to Earth since its 20-8 start. The Pirates are just 15-34 over the last two months and have dropped to fourth place in the NL Central. Granted, the division’s still reasonably up for grabs — Cincinnati is currently in first place at 41-37 — but the Pirates haven’t provided any reason for optimism.

The Pirates are just 1-9 over their last 10 games. Additionally, they own the third-worst run differential (minus-44) in the NL. Given that, the Pirates seem headed for another lost summer.

Pittsburgh ranks toward the bottom in most offensive categories, including runs scored (25th), home runs (27th), batting average (21st) and OPS (23rd). Outfielders Bryan Reynolds (40 RBI) and Jack Suwinski (15 HR) have been the Pirates’ biggest run producers, though the latter is batting just .151 in June.

It’s important to remember, when betting on baseball, that trends may change. Pittsburgh is bound to string together some wins again at some point, whether it’s this week or next.After all, the Pirates have gotten some favorable performances from their staff, including No. 1 starter Mitch Keller and relievers Colin Holderman and David Bednar.

Odds Outlook

This may come in handy when assessing the odds in our Padres vs Pirates series preview: Pittsburgh is 35-42 against the spread this MLB season, while San Diego has fared only slightly better at 36-42. The Pirates have been especially bad ATS at home (15-22).

At 43, Hill is baseball’s oldest active player. He’s 6-7 with a 4.34 ERA in 15 starts, positioning himself as a strong candidate to be moved at the upcoming trade deadline. He faces Darvish, who is 5-6 with a 4.84 ERA.

San Diego is -175 favorite to win outright, with Pittsburgh priced at +161. The projected total is 8.5 -115/105. Keep in mind, as you assess our Padres vs Pirates series preview, that odds may shift.

The 27-year-old Keller is in midst of a breakout season for Pittsburgh, with eight wins and a 3.45 ERA. He’s struck out 113 in 99 innings, tying him for fifth in MLB with Yankees ace Gerrit Cole. At +1200, Keller currently has the seventh-best odds for NL Cy Young. He faces Snell, who owns a 3.22 ERA and has punched out 104 in 81 innings.

Snell has posted double-digit strikeouts in each of his last three starts and has allowed just one run over 25 innings in June.

Ortiz has recorded a 3.74 ERA across nine appearances (eight starts). The 24-year-old right-hander went a career-high eight innings in his most recent outing, a 3-1 victory over Miami last Friday. His counterpart, Musgrove, is 6-2 with a 3.88 ERA. Musgrove’s won his last three starts and owns a 2.10 ERA in June.

For MLB betting news, odds, analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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