Phillies vs Rays Betting Preview: Philadelphia Continues to Heat Up

The Tampa Bay Rays will look to maintain their hold on the American League’s best record when the Philadelphia Phillies visit for a key interleague series. The three-game is scheduled to get underway Tuesday at Tropicana Field. Take a closer look at the odds in our Phillies vs Rays betting preview.

Philly Heating Up

The Philadelphia Phillies got off to an inauspicious start after making the World Series last October. The Phillies were 25-30 at the end of May and fell as far as seven games below .500 on June 2. Since then, they’ve climbed back into the thick of things, posting a .730 winning percentage.

At 44-39 entering today’s MLB schedule, Philadelphia is third in the National League East, 12 games behind baseball’s best team, the Braves. While that deficit may be too big to overcome, the Phillies are firmly in the Wild Card race. With 99 games remaining, they’re just 1.5 games behind the Giants for the third and final playoff spot.

What’s been the key to their turnaround? Look no further than Nick Castellanos. After a disappointing start to his tenure in Philadelphia, Castellanos has rebounded in a big way. He’s fifth in the majors with a .316 batting average to go with 12 home runs and 54 RBI. He was selected as Philadelphia’s lone representative for next week’s All-Star Game in Seattle.

The Phillies are still just 15th in the majors in runs scored. However, given the amount of quality hitters in their lineup, it’s reasonable to expect their production to increase. Shortstop Trea Turner, signed to a $300 million contract in the offseason and is batting .249, 48 points below his career average. On top of that, designated hitter Bryce Harper has just three homers in 51 games since returning from Tommy John surgery.

Top of the Heap

Since its 13-0 start, Tampa Bay has maintained its hold on first place in the American League East. It doesn’t seem as if the Rays (57-30) will lose their grip on the division anytime soon, if it all. However, the Orioles (49-33) are at least making them sweat a bit after trimming Tampa Bay’s deficit to three in the loss column.

Still, the Rays own the best run differential in baseball (plus-157), not to mention the most wins in the AL. The Rays are sending three players to the All-Star Game, including two starters: first baseman Yandy Diaz, who is hitting a league-best .318, and outfielder Randy Arozarena. Left-hander Shane McClanahan was also selected, however, he’s unlikely to participate after landing on the Injured List with back tightness.

McClanahan’s absence is a significant blow to Tampa Bay. He leads the majors in wins (11) and is fifth in ERA (2.53). Because of that, McClanahan’s AL Cy Young odds have plummeted to +1000, down from +270 in late June. Houston’s Framber Valdez is now the favorite at +200.

The Rays, meanwhile, remain the AL favorite at +200.

Odds Outlook

Tampa Bay has been among baseball’s most profitable MLB teams for bettors. The Rays are 48-39 against the run line this season, including 26-18 at home. Only Texas (27-17) has been better in its home ballpark. That’s a stark contrast to the Phillies, who are 34-49 against the run line. Their 41% cover rate is the third-lowest in baseball behind the Mets (39.3) and Royals (35.7). Keep that in mind as you assess our Phillies vs Rays betting preview.

Eflin faces his former team. The 29-year-old right-hander is having a career year, with nine wins (tied for third in MLB) and a 3.29 ERA. That includes a spectacular 8-0 mark at home.

The Phillies will counter with Nola, who’s been a tad underwhelming after anchoring Philadelphia’s rotation alongside Zack Wheeler during last year’s World Series run. Nola is 7-5 with a 4.51 ERA and has allowed the fifth-most homers in the majors (17).

Tampa Bay is -135 to win outright, with Philadelphia priced at +125. The projected total has jumped to 8 (+100/-120) after opening at 7. It’s important to remember that the odds in this Phillies vs Rays betting preview may continue to shift.

Chirinos has made 12 appearances but just four starts. That’s because Tampa Bay typically uses the 29-year-old right-hander as its ‘bulk guy” following an opener. Chirinos’ job is to eat up innings, and he’s done that quite well, posting a 3.64 ERA across 54.1 frames. He’s slated to start here, though Tampa Bay could always alter its plans.

Walker is 9-3 with a 3.93 ERA. The former All-Stars followed up a brutal May (6.11 ERA) by posting a 1.50 ERA in June. He’s allowed just three runs over his last five starts. The Phillies vs Rays matchup is bound to be a thrilling game as both teams strive to outperform each other.

Tampa Bay has yet to announce a starter for the final game of the series. Philadelphia will pitch Sanchez, a 26-year-old southpaw who is 0-2 with a 3.26 ERA across four starts.

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