Yoshinobu Yamamoto Presumptive Favorite for NL Rookie of the Year

There’s a clear favorite in Japanese phenom Yoshinobu Yamamoto for National League Rookie of the Year. But don’t rule out fellow Asian imports like Jung Hoo Lee and Shota Imanaga from challenging Yamamoto for top billing among newcomers.

With Opening Day just around the corner, what should bettors make of the field? Read on as we break down the latest NL Rookie of the Year odds.

THE FAVORITE

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, P, Los Angeles Dodgers (+180)

Deemed the top pitcher on the free-agent market, Yamamoto inked a record 12-year deal worth $325 million in December. That surpassed the largest MLB contract ever given to a pitcher, topping Gerrit Cole’s $324 million deal with the Yankees.

The 25-year-old right-hander arrives having won the Sawamura Award – Japan’s version of the Cy Young — in each of the last three seasons with the Orix Buffaloes of Nippon Professional Baseball.

Given his resume, it’s no wonder he has the best NL Rookie of the Year odds. The Dodgers also have three of the top four MVP odds favorites in Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Shohei Ohtani.

TOP CONTENDERS

Jung Hoo Lee, OF, San Francisco Giants (+450)

A longtime star in the Korean Baseball League, Lee inked a six-year, $113 million deal in December.

The 25-year-old slugger hit over .300 every season in the Korean Baseball Organization and owns a lifetime average of .340.

With his elite contact skills, he should help fill San Francisco’s need for a big bat alongside fellow offseason acquisitions Jorge Soler and Matt Chapman.

Jackson Chourio, OF, Milwaukee Brewers (+700)

The 20-year-old outfielder has played only six games above Double-A but is regarded as the No. 2 prospect in baseball behind Orioles infielder Jackson Holliday, the co-favorite for AL Rookie of the Year. In 531 at-bats last season between Double-A and Triple-A, Chourio hit .282 with 22 homers and 91 RBI and stole 44 bases.

Chourio has a ton of upside, but given his age, some growing pains should be expected out of the gate. The upside is that the Brewers, who are expected to take a step back after cutting payroll, will likely be patient with him. They are a World Series longshot with +9000 MLB odds.

Shota Imanaga, P, Chicago Cubs (+900)

Another highly coveted Asian import, Imanaga was the winning pitcher for Japan in last year’s World Baseball Classic final against the United States. The 30-year-old southpaw signed a four-year, $53 million contract in January including options that could take it to $80 million.

In 22 starts last season for the Yokohama BayStars of Japan’s Central League, Imanaga went 7-4 with a 2.80 ERA and 147 strikeouts in 148 innings.

He should get a lot of exposure in Chicago’s rotation and challenge for the NL’s top rookie.

OUTSIDE LOOKING IN

Michael Busch, 1B/3B, Chicago Cubs (+1400)

In Los Angeles, Busch’s path to regular playing time was blocked by multiple all-stars. But that shouldn’t be the case in Chicago, where the 26-year-old infielder should see ample at-bats. Busch — ranked as the No. 51 prospect by MLB Pipeline — has worked primarily at first base this spring, partnering with Patrick Wisdom.

In 72 at-bats last season with the Dodgers, Busch hit .167 with two homers and seven RBI.

Jackson Merrill, SS/OF, San Diego Padres (+1500)

Merrill has opened eyes this spring. Through 13 games, the shortstop-turned-outfielder is slashing .351/.400/.595 with a pair of home runs. Most of his time has come in center field, a position he’d never played before this offseason.

He’s looked comfortable enough that San Diego is planning on bringing him on the season-opening trip to South Korea against the Dodgers.

Kyle Harrison, P, San Francisco Giants (+1600)

Harrison flashed his upside during a seven-start cameo last season in which he logged a 4.15 ERA over 34.2 innings. His best appearance came in his second big-league appearance on Aug. 28 when he tossed 6.1 shutout innings with 11 strikeouts in a win over Cincinnati.

The 22-year-old lefty should have plenty of opportunities to build his MLB stats after locking up a rotation spot this spring.

If Harrison can hone his control and build up his workload, he will be a fixture for San Francisco.

 Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Chicago Cubs (+1600)

Crow-Armstrong had a cup of coffee with Chicago last September, going hitless in his first 14 MLB at-bats. Ranked by MLB Pipeline as the Cubs’ top prospect, Crow-Armstrong is slated to open the season with Triple-A Iowa but should return to the Windy City at some point.

Paul Skenes, P, Pittsburgh Pirates (+1800)

Skenes won’t be on Pittsburgh’s Opening Day roster, as he threw only 6.2 innings in the minors after helping lead LSU to the College World Series title. But he likely won’t be down for long.

The same can be said for his 18/1 NL Rookie of the Year odds.

Skenes, the reigning No. 1 overall draft pick and MLB Pipeline’s No. 3 prospect, topped out at 102 mph in a Spring Breakout exhibition against Baltimore on Thursday.

LONGSHOTS

Jordan Lawlar, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks (+2000)

Lawlar was impressive as a minor leaguer in 2023, slashing .278/.378/.496 with 20 home runs and 36 stolen bases between Double-A and Triple-A. He struggled, however, when called up by Arizona, going just 4-for-34 at the dish.

A bit more seasoning should help the 20-year-old Lawlar.

Masyn Winn, SS, St. Louis Cardinals (+2000)

Winn hit just .172 in 122 at-bats last season and has continued to struggle this spring, going just 5-for-25 at the plate. Despite that, the 21-year-old is projected to be the Cardinals’ Opening Day shortstop.

That may be a big jump, but Winn’s potential is immense.

For MLB betting news, analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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