Air Force Falcons 2023 Future Odds: National Championship, Conference, Regular Season Wins and Player Props

2023 Air Force Falcons stats show the Air Force Falcons finishing 5-6 ATS (-145 units), bringing their three-year total to 15-13 9+104 units). The Falcons have rotated winning seasons for bettors over the last three years. Since 2005, the Force is 100-103 ATS (-854 units). Air Force finished with a 9-3 / 5-3 SU record after losing to the Baylor Bears (30-15) in the Armed Forces Bowl. This season, the Falcons are returning just 47% of their offense from last year, and 59th overall. Head Coach Troy Calhoun will have his hands full as he enters his 17th season.

Air Force Falcons At A Glance

Falcons Schedule Ease Roster Losses

Looking at the various NCAAF schedules, the Falcons own the 128th most difficult schedule in College Football. You can bet that Brian Knorr’s unit will be leaned on early until the offense can catch up. Only 40 other teams will return more on the defensive side of the ball than Air Force who opens up against Robert Morris at Falcon Stadium, on September 2nd. Despite the losses on offense, the Falcons should be favored in every game this season until a late showdown at Boise State to end the year. We think we’ll look at the final 2023 Air Force Falcons offensive stats and see a difference between this year and last immediately.

Potential stumbling blocks could be a week five home date against San Diego State, but the Falcon defense held the Aztecs to just three points in last season’s 13-3 win to end the regular season. Their games at Navy and vs Army in Denver, also present hurdles. If they can clear those, Air Force could find themselves in a position to do something special before they met with the Broncos. The Force has gone over their projected win total in three straight seasons (8.5 in 2022), but we think there are too many potential pitfalls to go over the win total again.

Last year, Air Force led the nation in rushing with 336.1 yards per game, that must continue if there’s any hope of being undefeated heading to Idaho. You can bet that Troy Calhoun will get the most out of his team as he has almost every season since taking over the program in 2007. Calhoun is 121-78 at his alma mater, has won 10 games or more in back-to-back seasons, and has had just four losing seasons. His offensive line will bring back four starters but will lose QB Haaziq Daniels and running back Brad Roberts who ran for 1612 yards and 15 touchdowns in 2022.

National Championship Odds: +40000 Won’t Cash But it Could Get Interesting

As we mentioned, if the Falcons make it through the games they should win with an unblemished record, then a win over the Broncos could make the committee sweat some, but the reality for bettors is that things rarely go the way the numbers suggest and to suggest that they could be in the title picture is purely a reach. Last year, the Falcons opened at +100000 to win the National Title so there has been progress in the minds of the oddsmakers but much more is needed to have a serious conversation.

Conference Odds: Fresno State Getting Push From Bettors

The Mountain West Conference title is more attainable than talking about a national championship, but bettors have pushed the Falcons down to third favorite with a flood of money coming in on Fresno State who are now +380. The defending MWC champions were +225 last season and it appears as if the public is more than willing to back them again. The Falcons allowed just 13.4 points per game last year and held opponents to a 27.9 success rate on third down. Boise State is the clear favorite (+160), but with the Falcons not playing Fresno State this season that eliminates a massive roadblock.

Regular Season Wins: Oddsmaker Trap in Full Effect

With two straight 10-win seasons under the belt, you could make a case for the Falcons to be high up the College Football rankings at some point in 2023 if they can get by Utah State, San Jose State, and Wyoming, but the oddsmakers have made a number (8.5) for a reason. They are well aware that the Force isn’t as strong as they were in 2022. They even kicked in a solid -130 (under) to give over bettors even money.

The Falcons won ten games in the regular season last year before getting out-classed by Baylor in their bowl game. We don’t think with the offensive question marks, especially with the loss of Roberts, that the 2023 Air Force Falcons stats will mimic those in 2022. If that’s not the case, then this year’s version of the Falcons will not have enough to get to nine wins. The 8.5 is a sharp number, one that we’re going to take the under on.

For NCAAF betting news, football odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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