NCAA Week 5 Betting Lines: Deciphering the Big Line Movement

Week 5 of the college football season is here, and bettors who wait until later in the week have a number of games with different point spreads. Sometimes waiting works to the bettors’ advantage. Other times, it does not. The NCAAF Week 5 betting lines have seen point spread movement of 4 or more points on seven different games. Those games on the college football schedule this weekend college football schedule this weekend that will be looked at here.

No. 10 Utah visits No. 19 Oregon State in the top game of the day on Friday. The Utes opened as 1-point favorites. Now, the Beavers are favored by 4.5 points. It’s looking more like Nate Johnson will be Utah’s quarterback in this game, with Cam Rising still unable to go. Johnson has played well, but isn’t at Rising’s level.

As long as Johnson can keep the mistakes to a minimum and let Utah’s defense do its thing, the Utes are tough to go against as underdogs. Utah has been favored in the last eight games between the two teams. The Beavers get the edge on offense, but the Utes are better defensively and have played the tougher schedule. Take Utah getting 4.5 points on the college football spread.

The NCAA Week 5 betting lines show that No. 6 Penn State has moved from 21-point favorites to being favored by 26.5 points. That’s a pretty big move, especially considering the total on the game is just 46. There’s no doubt Penn State is better on both sides of the football.

But the Wildcats aren’t completely void of talent. Northwestern is averaging 24 points and allowing 25.8 against a schedule that is just as tough as Penn State’s. Still, it’s tough to back either one of these teams in a game Penn State should win handily.

The No. 8 USC Trojans have moved from 17.5-point favorites to 22-point favorites. Many people are expecting a repeat of last week’s results for Colorado. But the final score shouldn’t be quite so lopsided for Colorado. The Trojans are clearly the better team, but Colorado has played a much more demanding schedule and should have some success through the air.

Don’t expect the Buffaloes to run the ball much, which is something they’re not good at. Southern Cal should have some success on the ground, which could take time off the clock. Since the start of the 2021 season, games with totals of 70 and higher are 20-37 in totals, so we will look to the under here.

The No. 14 Oklahoma Sooners have moved from 14-point favorites to 20-point favorites against Iowa State. The Sooners have college football championship aspirations this season. If they advance to the college football playoffs, they’ll have earned it, as there aren’t many easy games in the Big 12 Conference.

Iowa State is 2-2 on the year, but is allowing just 16.5 points per game. The Cyclones can throw the ball, which is needed against Oklahoma’s run defense. It’s hard to agree with the line move in this one, and the Cyclones offer a little bit of value at such high odds.

The NCAA Week 5 betting lines have moved from Iowa -7 to Iowa -12 in this one, where the total is just 36.5. The Spartans have a mess on their hands with the firing of Mel Tucker. But sometimes, the best thing is just to get out there and play football.

Rather than try to beat the point spread move, the best play here could very well be following the trend regarding Iowa totals. The Hawkeyes have six games with a total of less than 37 since the start of the 2021 season. Iowa has gone under the number in all six, so the under is worth a look in this spot.

In another battle of two ranked teams, the point spread has moved from No. 3 Texas -20 to Texas -16 over No. 24 Kansas in this game. Texas has played a much more demanding schedule, so it’s a little bit hard to get a good read on the stats for the Jayhawks. Kansas coach Lance Leipold has been solid as a double-digit conference underdog, and this is a huge revenge game for Kansas, which was thumped 55-14 by the Longhorns at home last year.

But the biggest factor in Kansas’ favor could be the Oklahoma Sooners. That’s who is on tap for Texas, and the Longhorns are 2-9 ATS at home before facing Oklahoma. Have to go with Kansas in this spot.

The NCAA Week 5 betting lines have shown a huge move on TCU, with the Horned Frogs moving from 7-point favorites to 14.5-point favorites. Both teams are solid at stopping the run, but the Horned Frogs are much better at moving the ball through the air.

West Virginia’s quarterback situation is a mess, but the Mountaineers are 3-1. One of the toughest games on the college football schedule this weekend to handicap. The Horned Frogs have bounced back after losing to Colorado. But laying more than two touchdowns to a decent defense isn’t always the best move to make.

For NCAAF betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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