2023 AFC South Odds: Jacksonville Jaguars the Team to Beat
Jaguars Huge Favorites to Win Division
The 2023 AFC South odds show the Jacksonville Jaguars as the team to beat. The Tennessee Titans are given the best chance to play spoiler. The Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans bringing up the rear. Jacksonville was the only team in the division to finish above .500 last season in the NFL standings.
The Jaguars are viewed as a team on the rise, while the Titans are a team giving it one final shot with their veterans. Indianapolis and the Texans are younger teams looking toward the future. So it’s no surprise to see Jacksonville listed as the favorite.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-165)
Jacksonville was sputtering midway through last season when everything just started to click. After starting 3-7, the Jaguars went on to win six of their final regular season games. They pulled off a memorable rally against the Los Angeles Chargers in a wild-card game in the playoffs. Jacksonville gave the eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs a battle before coming up short.
For the Jaguars, things start with Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence threw for 4,113 yards and 25 touchdowns while being intercepted just eight times. He also rushed for 291 yards and five touchdowns in the NFL stats.
Travis Etienne rushed for 1,125 yards and had 35 receptions out of the backfield. But Jacksonville still drafted Tank Bigsby in the third round and signed D’Ernest Johnson as a free agent.
The Jaguars are hoping Calvin Ridley can help spark the receiving corps. He played just five games in 2021 and not at all last season, but he has talent. Christian Kirk had a solid season with 84 receptions and eight touchdowns and Evan Engram was solid at tight end.
If the Jaguars don’t win the division the likely culprit is going to be the defense. Jacksonville was No. 28 in passing yards allowed and No. 12 against the rush and in scoring defense. If the Jags can tighten up the passing defense a bit, they’ll be tough to dethrone.
Tennessee Titans (+325)
The 2023 AFC South odds have the Tennessee Titans second at +325, which may not be a bad wager. Tennessee had some injury problems last year, which helped lead to its skid at the end of the season. The Titans were 7-3 at one point last year before the injuries mounted.
Tennessee had Ryan Tannehill on the trading block but elected to keep the veteran QB and RB Derrick Henry and give it one more shot. Tannehill is 34 and Henry is 29. Newly acquired DeAndre Hopkins is 31, so it’s pretty much now or never for the Titans.
Tannehill has fallen off a bit in the last couple of seasons. You can’t say the same for Henry, but he’s taken a pounding the last four or five seasons and it will catch up to him at some point. With an offensive line ranked as one of the worst in the NFL, it could happen sooner rather than later.
Tennessee’s defense was one of the best in the league against the run, allowing just 3.4 yards per carry. That tied San Francisco for the lowest average. But it also prompted a lot of passes against Tennessee and the Titans were last in passing defense. The Titans faced more pass attempts than any other team last year.
Indianapolis Colts (+600)
Anthony Richardson is the quarterback of the future for the Indianapolis Colts. He’s also the quarterback of the present, as Indianapolis named him the starter for the regular season opener over Gardner Minshew. Minshew probably gives the Colts a better chance to win now. But Indianapolis is clearly looking ahead.
Richardson sat out the team’s second preseason game, so Indianapolis isn’t taking any chances with him. But for a guy who made just 13 college starts and completed 55% of his passes with the Florida Gators, more playing time can’t hurt.
The Colts tabbed Philadelphia offensive coordinator Shane Steichen to be their new head coach. And one thing Steichen did was make sure to have designed running plays for Jalen Hurts. Now, he’ll have Richardson running the ball and he’s a better athlete than Hurts, although he has a lot of catching up to do to be a better quarterback.
The Colts have a pretty good offensive line and some talent at the skill position.
The defense isn’t anything special, but it’s not bad either. Second-round draft pick Julius Brents will make a few rookie mistakes in the secondary, but he’s a nice player. A healthy Shaquille Leonard would be a nice bonus after last year’s back surgery. Indianapolis added defensive end Samson Ekubam and defensive tackle Taven Bryan in free agency. But the Colts did lose cornerback Stephon Gilmore.
Houston Texans (+850)
The 2023 AFC South odds have the Houston Texans at +850, although that seems a little too low. DeMeco Ryans could turn out to be a very good head coach. He did a great job as the defensive coordinator of the San Francisco 49ers. And he’s a former Houston player himself.
Houston selected two of the first three players this year in quarterback C.J. Stroud and pass rusher Will Anderson Jr. The Texans gave up a lot to move up to take Anderson, but he was the player the team wanted. Taking Stroud was a no-brainer. Another season of Davis Mills behind center wasn’t going to do much for the team. Stroud will have some struggles along the way but should turn into a solid quarterback.
Anderson will move to the defensive end in Houston’s 4-3 defense. He should be able to make the move without any problems. But Anderson and Stroud aren’t the only two youngsters the Texans are counting on. Last year’s two first-round NFL draft picks, Derek Stingley Jr. and Kenyon Green, were far from impressive as rookies. If those two play up to their draft positions, Houston will have a nice foundation moving forward. That’s a big win right there for the franchise.
Who to Bet On?
The Jacksonville Jaguars are the logical choice. But it’s a little hard to get excited laying -165 on an NFL futures bet. The Titans are the team most likely to climb past the Jaguars if Jacksonville falters. You can forget about the Colts, who were 4-12-1 straight-up and 6-11 against the NFL point spreads. Houston will be better, but winning the division looks like a huge stretch.
The Jaguars closed out the 2022 season the way you want to see a team play. They’ll enter this season with confidence, as well as high expectations. That’s something you don’t always get out of the Jaguars. The NFL odds aren’t the greatest, but Jacksonville is really the only way you can go in this one.
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