Las Vegas Raiders 2023 Future Odds
Raiders’ Playoff Hopes Rest on Peg Legs of “Jimmy G”
The Las Vegas Raiders could become the most entertaining team in the NFL this season but for different reasons. For one, this team is unpredictable and could go anywhere from the playoffs to the worst record in the league. A lot of it depends on the health of its new quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. He can never stay healthy, hence why the 2023 Las Vegas Raiders stats could trend for the worse.
Las Vegas Raiders At A Glance
| Odds to Win | Opening Odds | Current Odds |
| Super Bowl | +8000 | +6000 |
| Conference | +4000 | +3300 |
| Division | +1400 | +1400 |
| Regular Season Win Total | 7.5 (o+135, u-155) | 6.5 (o+120, u-150) |
| To Make Playoffs | Yes +350, No -450 | Yes +350, No -500 |
Raiders’ Expectations Range Anywhere from Playoffs to Trainwreck
After a 6-11 finish in 2022, which fell well below its 8.5 regular-season win projections, the Raiders had to make a change. Gone is quarterback Derek Carr and in is Jimmy Garoppolo. The new quarterback thus reunites with his old coach, Josh McDaniels, who could find himself in the hot seat if Las Vegas underperforms yet again.
Las Vegas plays in a tough division and an even tougher conference. Thus, the outright NFL betting odds don’t expect much out of this team. In fact, the public is already betting against Las Vegas’s 2023 win totals. That’s not a surprise as “Jimmy G” always gets injured.
Garoppolo has missed large parts of a season in three of the last five years. But one can’t deny how effective he is at leading his teams to victory – he is 40-17 as a starter and his 99.6 passer rating is nothing to scoff at either.
So with McDaniels, Garoppolo should be familiar with his play-calling. This could boost the Raiders’ inconsistent offense. Also helping out, the team acquired another former Patriot in wide receiver Jakobi Meyers. Star running back Josh Jacobs returns as well.
And on defense, the Raiders drafted star edge rusher Tyree Wilson. Injury concerns aside, Wilson could form the best pass-rushing duo with Maxx Crosby. They could also help improve the team’s 26th-ranked scoring defense last year.
All-in-all, there are enough improvements here to give Raiders fans hope for 2023. But things can quickly go awry, so look away once the NFL Injuries bug starts biting.
Super Bowl Odds: It’s Vegas, Not Hollywood
It would be the perfect feel-good story if the Raiders win the Super Bowl in Las Vegas as 60-1 long shots. But this is Las Vegas, not Hollywood. The Raiders’ odds are accurate as this team is nowhere close to being a Super Bowl contender.
At best, the Raiders can score a lot of points and make the playoffs. But with a porous defense, it’s tough to see Las Vegas threatening any of the top Super Bowl favorites.
Conference Odds: Dreaming of 2019
But just maybe Jimmy G has another run in him? Remember 2019 when he helped lead the 49ers to the Super Bowl. This team was 4-12 in 2018 and was listed at 40-1 to win the title in 2019. Garoppolo, who mostly stayed healthy, still cashed the 49ers’ conference odds at 20-1.
This 49ers team is far better than this Raiders team, however. It had Mike McDaniel, Robert Saleh, and DeMeco Ryans as assistant coaches, who are all head coaches now. Las Vegas is rightly praised at 33-1. The 2023 Las Vegas Raiders stats won’t be nearly as prolific as this 49ers team, especially on defense. So don’t hold your breath.
Division Odds: Outgunned in The Wild Wild West
The Raiders also have the misfortune of being in the same division as the Chiefs, Chargers, and Broncos. That’s the Super Bowl champion, a playoff team, and potentially another one if Sean Payton works his magic in Denver. Thus, the division odds have Las Vegas favored to finish last at -150. Las Vegas is also not expected to win more than two games (under 2.5 wins at -165) against its division.
The NFL odds currently have Vegas at 14-1 to come out on top. This is not a great number as it should be a lot longer than that. The Chiefs would need to lose Patrick Mahomes while both Los Angeles and Denver lay eggs. That’s less than the implied 6.7% chance it happens.
Regular Season Wins: “Just Win, Baby”
In the immortal words of the franchise’s previous owner, Al Davis, the Raiders need to focus on just winning. But that might be hard to do given the team’s tough NFL schedule this 2023. Based on last season’s records, the Raiders have the eighth-hardest schedule. Not only do they face Kansas City and the Chargers twice, but they also take on the AFC East and the NFC North.
Given the expected 2023 Las Vegas Raiders stats, winning six to eight games should be a reality. The public has quickly bet on the Raiders to win fewer than 7.5 games so the number is now down to 6.5 with the ‘under’ still juiced at -150.
To Make Playoffs: The 2021 Formula
In 2021, the Raiders overcame low expectations to win 10 games and make the playoffs. How did they do it? Winning a lot of close games. Las Vegas went 7-3 in one-possession outcomes and it won six games by three points or fewer, including four in overtime. That’s why Vegas made the playoffs despite a -65 point differential.
This “new” team could do just this and win 10+ games despite being outscored in general. Las Vegas’s offense could be potent enough to lead them to wins. Garoppolo is a savvy veteran who can play the role Kirk Cousins did for Minnesota last season as they won 13 games despite a negative differential.
As such, there is some value in the team’s NFL playoff odds at +350.
Side Bets: Two Types of Fans
The Raiders could go one of two ways here. On one hand, they could get fortunate and exceed expectations. Garoppolo stays healthy, the offense clicks and the defense makes enough plays to help the team eke out wins. If you’re the type to believe this, betting on the team to have a winning season at +225 might be a shrewd bet.
But on the other hand, the offense is not good enough to outscore most of the Raiders’ opponents. And when the Raiders are below .500, Garoppolo gets hurt and further tanks the season. Las Vegas plummets to the bottom of the AFC. If you’re this pessimistic, bet on the Raiders to have the fewest regular season wins at 10-1 in the sportsbook.
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