Broncos vs Dolphins Odds Preview: Potential “Trap Game” of the Week

Miami Favored By 6.5 Points in Home Opener

Miami is on a roll heading to its home opener this NFL season. The sportsbook pegs the Dolphins as a 6.5-point favorite against the visiting Broncos. This should be an easy win for Miami, right? Fans are likely sticking the Dolphins as their NFL Survivor pick of the week as Denver continues to struggle despite Sean Payton now at the helm. But not so fast as these Broncos vs Dolphins odds could signal a trap.

Deja Vu For Denver

The start of this 2023 Denver Broncos season looks so much like last year’s, especially on offense. Denver lost a pair of games in the final moments. Its total margin of defeat is at three points. And while Russell Wilson looks better on paper, his coach says otherwise.

“We give them the ball at midfield, and that momentum shifts at that point with the fumble,” Payton said and directly blamed the 35-33 loss to Washington on that decision by his quarterback.

What’s also concerning here is the defense. Last season, it carried the team. The Broncos had the best defense until they got fed up and mailed it in. Now, the defense has sharply declined. It has recorded negative points in both games as far as the expected points contributed metric on the NFL team stats.

While Wilson and the offense are moving the ball more effectively, it has not resulted in better results. And the openly contentious relationship between Payton and Wilson may make things worse. Or will it make it better?

Payton has a heavy-handed style of coaching. That has already improved Wilson’s performance. Being 0-2 on the NFL standings is not the end of the world regardless of the doomers on social media.

If the defense can get on the right page, Denver will be live on the betting lines. It certainly helps that this team is being underestimated judging by its +6.5 spread (+240 on the moneyline). That’s a 10.5-point swing going from being a four-point favorite versus Washington.

Payton is 11-5 against the spread (ATS) as a road underdog for his final five seasons in New Orleans. While this was a better team than his Broncos, it’s worth noting.

Trouble in Miami’s Paradise?

Miami is 2-0 thanks to both the offense and defense. Tua Tagovailoa and co. outdid the Chargers in a shootout in Week 1. Then in Week 2, Vic Fangio outcoached Bill Belichick just enough to give Miami the win. As a result, the Broncos vs Dolphins odds favor this team by almost a touchdown over Denver. But Miami could be on shaky legs here.

For one, Miami won both games by the skin of its teeth. And it didn’t escape unscathed. Several Dolphins could be on the sidelines including tackle Terron Armstead (back) and wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (concussion). Linebacker Jaelan Phillips (back) is also banged up.

If there is an NFL matchup where Miami could get away with its injuries, it’s against Denver. The Broncos are also missing a few key players like tight end Greg Dulcich. And as far as the stats are concerned, Miami is better than Denver in almost all aspects. That’s why the Broncos vs Dolphins odds’ totals are at 48.5.

The uber-talented Dolphins offense could score a lot of points. But the defense could also neutralize anything Denver does. This could be one-way traffic though it won’t be shocking if Miami drops 30+ and makes the total go ‘over’ with ease.

On top of that, the Dolphins have covered five straight games going back to the penultimate week last year. Miami is also 4-2 ATS when favored at home under McDaniel.

Anything short of a blowout here could be a letdown.

For NFL betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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