Browns vs Broncos Betting Preview: Not Quite the Game You Think
Defensive Struggle Expected by Odds… But is It?
Totals Have Plummeted For Cleveland-Denver
It should be an ugly NFL matchup as the Denver Broncos host the Cleveland Browns in what is expected to feature little to no scoring. The look-ahead lines opened at 42 points. But with Deshaun Watson, the Browns’ starting quarterback, injured, it has dropped to 34.5 points. This is the third-lowest total of Week 12. But the Browns vs Broncos betting may be ahead of itself as Cleveland’s road games have trended differently.
Browns vs Broncos 
Day/Time:
Location: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Records: Browns (7-3)/Broncos (5-5)
Streaming: FOX
Browns Get Into High-Scoring Games on the Road
Cleveland has the sixth-best scoring defense: 180 points allowed in 10 games. But of those 180 points, 119 have come from four road games. The Browns are giving up nearly 30 points per game as a visitor, which is the third-most in the league. Additionally, the team is scoring 28.5 points per game as the league’s best road offense. Huh?
That’s why the totals have all gone over (4-0) in Cleveland’s road games. This is a sharp contrast to the totals all going under or pushing (0-5-1) in all their home games. It’s like watching two different NFL teams. The totals being consistently under 40 points is another thing as the NFL betting lines have not adjusted.
The Browns’ highest-scoring game, a 39-38 win at Indianapolis, also saw Watson just throw five passes as he was hurt. P.J. Walker played most of the game and completed just 15-of-32 passes for one interception. Six rushing touchdowns, three on each side, accounted for most of the scoring.
Denver averages over 130 rushing yards at home while averaging 22.6 points. These are middle-of-the-pack numbers. It is plausible that Cleveland “averages out” its NFL scores and odds by holding the Broncos to below its average.
It will need to do that as we can’t expect Dorian Thompson-Robinson to carry this offense. He’s completing under 55% of his throws for four picks and zero TDs in two starts this NFL season. If Cleveland is to win, the defense will need to do the heavy lifting.
Denver Has Been Playing Playoff Football
The slow start may have been a boon for the Broncos, who have looked like a playoff team for the last five weeks. Denver has now won four straight games. It upset the Chiefs and Bills and snapped Minnesota’s five-game winning streak. In these games, Denver never allowed more than 22 points.
“I just wanted to come out and win this game,” All-Pro safety Justin Simmons said after the Broncos’ win against Minnesota. “I didn’t care … how it looked, I just wanted to come win. Man, the guys played so good, and [I’m] just so proud of the team.”
Denver’s defense, which is still ranked in the bottom three of the league thanks to its ‘oh-so-bad it’s ribald’ start, has allowed an average of 17.4 points in its last five games. Uncoincidentally, the total went under in all five games.
More notably, Denver forced 14 turnovers in this span. It even forced five against Kansas City. Now, the Broncos stand with a +6 turnover differential just as Russell Wilson and the offense are starting to “cook”.
The offense has not scored more than 24 points since Week 4. But given how low the Browns vs Broncos betting total is, it may not need more than 20 points to go over the total.
At 5-5, the Broncos are now second in the NFL division standings. When they looked dead in the water, this team is now fighting for a NFL playoff spot.
Now, Denver faces Cleveland, which should also feel like its back is against the wall given its injury woes. The Browns vs Broncos betting odds slightly favor Denver. It has the edge in quarterback and given how its defense has played, maybe in ‘D’ as well.
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