How To Bet On Patrick Mahomes in Super Bowl LVIII
The Chiefs Quarterback Props Have Some Serious Value That You Should Be Considering
We’re inching closer to the start time for Super Bowl LVIII between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs.
The Chiefs won last year’s Super Bowl. However, many fans and analysts doubted this year’s team in the middle of the season.
The Chiefs weren’t clicking on offense and ended up having to play in NFL Wild Card Weekend to begin their NFL playoff journey instead of earning a bye week.
After defeating the Dolphins, Kansas City earned playoff road wins against the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens and is now headed to another Super Bowl.
The Super Bowl frenzy began with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback. Mahomes is already playing in his fourth Super Bowl in six years and has two Super Bowl rings. He’ll be looking for his third ring in this year’s Super Bowl in Las Vegas.
If he notches his third Super Bowl ring as quarterback of the Chiefs, there will be serious conversation about Mahomes being able to beat out Tom Brady for the GOAT status in the next decade.
Don’t doubt Mahomes. Let’s take a look at the Chiefs quarterback props for Super Bowl LVIII.
49ers vs Chiefs 
Day/Time:
Location: Allegiant Stadium
Streaming: Watch Live Sports
Mahomes Passing Yards (260.5 -115)
Patrick Mahomes has a passing yards total of 260.5 yards for Super Bowl LVIII.
Despite throwing for 4,183 yards this season, he only hit 261 yards passing in 42% of games this season.
Against Buffalo and Baltimore, Mahomes completed more than 73% of passes in each game. However, he still only got as high as 241 passing yards in those two games.
In last year’s regular season game, Mahomes went 25 for 34 with 423 passing yards after completing 73.5% of his passes. He threw three touchdowns and one interception but averaged more than 12 yards per throw.
While Mahomes doesn’t have the most efficient group of receivers this year, the Chiefs might need to be slightly more aggressive against the 49ers early on to put some pressure on San Francisco. We’d back the Over for the passing yards for the Chiefs quarterback props.
Mahomes Passing Attempts (36.5 -115)
The last time the Chiefs played the 49ers, Mahomes threw 34 times. However, his line is currently sitting at 36.5.
We should also acknowledge that Mahomes didn’t add a single rushing attempt.
Mahomes hit at least 37 passing attempts this year in 63% of regular season games. He’s also rushed at least six times in the last two games, earning at least one play of 11 or more yards on the ground.
The Super Bowl score will likely be lower-scoring than some might anticipate. Mahomes has only had one game where he’s averaged more than ten yards a throw. He’s not putting together quick drives where the Chiefs get down the field quickly.
That ultimately means more passing attempts. We’d back the Over here.
Mahomes Passing Completions (26.5 -115)
You can expect more completions out of Patrick Mahomes with more passing attempts. As stated before, Mahomes hasn’t earned major long plays down the field. The Chiefs are putting together longer drives with more plays. That ultimately will help his passing completions.
In one of the three playoff games, Mahomes only hit at least 27 or more passing completions. But the Super Bowl will likely play out like the Ravens game. We’ll get a low-scoring NFL matchup, with Mahomes earning many easy passes for completions.
The Over 26.5 makes sense here.
Mahomes Passing Touchdowns (1.5 -115)
In the playoffs, after 70 completions and 103 passing attempts, Mahomes has only thrown for four touchdown passes. He also hasn’t connected on a long play of more than 39 yards in the playoffs this season and has averaged seven yards a play.
Returning to the NFL regular season, Mahomes has only hit two or more passing touchdowns in two of his last eight games.
With a low-scoring game in mind and limited big plays down the field, the Chiefs will likely round the ball around the red zone, keeping Mahomes away from two passing touchdowns. The other Chiefs quarterback props have a better shot at getting over their numbers.
Mahomes Rushing Yards (25.5 -115)
Patrick Mahomes is super skilled at escaping pressure and earning major yards down the field as a runner.
Last year against the 49ers, he didn’t even attempt a run. But he didn’t have to. The Chiefs scored 44 points in the win. That won’t happen this time. Mahomes will be under duress enough to where he’ll have to make plays with his feet.
However, against the Bills, he earned 19 rushing yards and added 15 rushing yards on six carries against the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game. That’s about where he’ll be against the 49ers. The Under looks to be the play.
Mahomes Rushing Attempts (4.5 -115)
Mahomes has rushed at least five times in three of the last five games. He’s also earned six carries in two consecutive games in the playoffs.
Victory formation is a rushing attempt, even if the yardage goes backward. If you think the Chiefs win with some kneel-downs at the end, back Mahomes to go Over 4.5 rushing attempts with these NFL odds.
Mahomes Anytime Touchdown (.5 +390)
Believe it or not, Patrick Mahomes doesn’t have a single rushing touchdown this season. He had 75 carries in the regular season and averaged more than five yards a carry. But he never got into the end zone.
Mahomes got hurt late in the season last year. There’s no way the Chiefs will put Mahomes in harm’s way in the Super Bowl when they need him the most. Don’t bother grabbing him to score a rushing touchdown. No matter how you find value, hitting something at 0% won’t look good in the betting odds calculator!
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