Chiefs Running Back Props: Will Pacheco Shine vs 49ers?
Plenty of Wagers Available For Pacheco
Proposition bets have added a new dimension to the Super Bowl. Many bettors have just as much money, if not more, on prop bets than on the actual game. When looking at Chiefs running back props, there’s going to be Isaiah Pacheco, and then there’s going to be everybody else. Pacheco has far more wagers available than the rest of the Kansas City running backs combined. That makes sense, as Pacheco had more rushing yards than the other running backs combined.
Isaiah Pacheco
The over/under for rushing yards for Pacheco is 65.5 (over -120, under -110). He’s gained at least 68 yards in each of Kansas City’s playoff games. With the 49ers allowing 4.3 yards per carry, the over could be worth a look.
The over/under for the number of rushes is 16.5 (over-125, under -120). The juice is a little bit high on this wager. Pacheco had 24 carries against Baltimore and Miami, but just 15 against Buffalo.
The total for Pacheco’s rushing plus receiving yards is 87.5 (-115 both ways). He’s had 14 receiving yards twice in the playoffs and -1 yards against Miami. The over looks better than the under here.
If you want to bet Pacheco will have the longest rush in the game, you’ll get +250 back. Christian McCaffrey had the 39-yard run against Green Bay and a 25-yard run against Detroit, so he’ll be tough to beat. But the odds are generous, and it’s not a bad wager.
The over/under for Pacheco’s longest run is 15.5 (over -105, under -125). Eight of the 17 games he’s played in saw a long run of 15 yards or less, so there isn’t much value either way in this one.
The total for Pacheco’s receptions is 3.5 (over +124, under -160). Pacheco had four or more receptions seven times in 17 games, so the under is more likely to come through.
The odds of Pacheco having the game’s longest pass reception are +4500. He had one reception longer than 21 yards all season.
Pacheco is +3000 to be the first player with 20 receiving yards and +3500 to be the first with 40 receiving yards. The last time he had 40 receiving yards was in October against the Jets.
The over/under on Pacheco’s receiving yards is 17.5 (over -115, under -115). He had 18 or more receiving yards on six occasions. So it’s another case of the under coming through more often than not. But this is one that could be dependent on how the game is going. If the Chiefs are behind, it’s easy to see Pacheco catching a few passes. If the Chiefs are ahead, he should get more rushing attempts.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
When you think of Chiefs running back props, you don’t think of Edwards-Helaire. The sportsbooks certainly didn’t. Despite Edwards-Helaire finishing No. 2 in rushing among Kansas City running backs, there aren’t many wagers available for him.
If you believe Edwards-Helaire is going to have the longest run in the game, you’ll get back +5500. He did have a 28-yard carry against Buffalo, although that was his longest carry of the season. It’s possible. It’s just not likely to happen, and the odds bear that out.
The odds on Edwards-Helaire being the first player to rush for 20 yards in the game are +2200. You’ll get +3500 if he’s the first player to hit 40 rushing yards. He had just 40 yards or more once during the season.
You can also get +3500 on Edwards-Helaire if he has the longest pass reception. He did have a 48-yard reception against New England late in the year. Another case where it’s possible, just not probable.
Jerick McKinnon
There’s no guarantee McKinnon is even going to play in the game, as he’s been on injured reserve for the past four weeks. He’s eligible to come off the list, but there’s been no indication Kansas City will activate him. Still, McKinnon is +9000 for having the longest reception in the game.
What to Bet On?
Trying to come up with the best of the Chiefs running back props isn’t easy. The NFL team stats show the 49ers aren’t the most incredible team against the run. But Kansas City could be forced to pass if it gets in an early hole. So, how you bet the prop bets should be determined by your Super Bowl 2024 predictions.
Pacheco Over 87.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards
The number is a little bit on the high side here, but the Chiefs should feature Pacheco some in this game. He’s capable of picking up yards on the ground or through the air. The game situation will be the determining factor in how those yards are gained. The standings NFL say the 49ers should be playing with the lead, which should help his receiving yards. But as long as the game is close, he should get his carries.
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