Super Bowl Yards Prop Bet Preview: Yards Gained On First Reception
Three Players Grab Our Attention as Strong Prop Wagers
Let the games before the games commence. Of course, we’re talking about the plethora of Super Bowl prop bets that are sure to grab your attention over the next 11 days. We’d like to focus on the Super Bowl odds as we would any other game because we’re not massive proponents of prop wagers, but when it’s the biggest game of the year it’s difficult to not peruse through the offerings.
Today our focus will be on yards gained by specific NFL players on the first reception. We like this prop because it comes down to the game plan, allowing us to make bets based on educated guesses, unlike the six-figure wager we’ve already seen on the coin flip. Some people have money to burn. We start our Super Bowl yards prop bet preview with our best bet.
San Francisco: TE George Kittle (Over 11.5 Yards, -110)
This was the first name to pop out at us because you can bet that Brock Purdy is going to want to establish his tight end and it isn’t going to be a swing pass. The 5-time pro-bowler has 65 receptions this season for 1020 yards, which comes out to be an average of 15.69 yards per reception. In the postseason, that average has increased to 18 yards per reception.
Those numbers alone are enough to go over the total but there is a caveat as well. Kittle has just six receptions in two playoff games (3.0 per game), a severe drop from his 4.06 receptions per game in the regular season. This is where we get to play the role of Kyle Shanahan.
Almost every year there is a guy who is forgotten or hidden and we think Kittle is that guy. If we’re Shanahan, we immediately try to establish Kittle who had just 27 yards receiving against the Detroit Lions on three targets. Kittle didn’t have a reception until the third quarter and that was for -1 yards before completing a 28-yard pass early in the fourth quarter.
Over the last three playoff runs for San Francisco, Kittle never was below 11 yards per reception in eight NFL games and averages 14.55 yards per reception for his career in the postseason. Kittle will be playing in his second Super Bowl after losing to Kansas City in 2019 (31-20).
In that game, the former Iowa Hawkeye caught four passes for 36 yards with a long of 12 yards. Our best guess is he gets a first-down pass early to get him involved, and that reception is good for 12-15 yards.
Kansas City: RB Isiah Pacheco (Under 5.5 yards, Even)
Isiah Pacheco is a tough runner and averaged right at 5.5 yards per reception this past NFL regular season and 4.5 yards per reception in the postseason. You may get just two chances at this with Pacheco averaging two catches per game in the NFL playoffs this season and in his career.
We do think this prop will end quickly because, like Kittle, Kansas City will want to have Pacheco become much more of a factor than he was in the win against the Baltimore Ravens when he ran for 68 yards on 24 carries (2.8 yards per game).
Pacheco added 14 yards receiving on four catches, but that number is a little deceiving because 10 of those 14 yards were on the Chiefs’ first possession. We recommend making this wager now because the number is good and if he gets dinged up in practice this week, you can bet that even money will be long gone.
Kansas City: WR Rashee Rice (Over 9.5 yards, Even)
We hope no one was disappointed that we didn’t include Travis Kelce but his projected total of 8.5 seemed right on. We go down the list a little further to find Rashee Rice who was 62 yards shy of 1,000 yards receiving in 2023.
The 23-year-old averaged 11.9 yards per reception in the regular season but his postseason production has been in decline since an 8-reception, 130-yard performance against the Miami Dolphins to start the postseason. Last week against the Baltimore Ravens, Rice had just eight receptions for 46 yards, an average of 5.75 yards per completion.
Of course, this prop is about the first reception and If we’re Andy Reid, we’re going to look at all of our weapons who didn’t contribute much against the Ravens and make sure they become engaged early against the Niners, especially when we’re talking about a rookie who needs to have his confidence fed with a big play.
That does it for our first Super Bowl yards prop bet preview, we hope everyone is on the right side of the NFL scoreboard on Super Bowl Sunday.
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