Kill Bill? Odds On The New England Patriots Actually Fire Belichick
New England May Have To Do The Unthinkable
The day that the rest of the NFL outside of Foxborough has long dreamed of may finally be upon us, at least if the current Bill Belichick rumors are to be believed.
The New England Patriots dominance over the NFL — and the AFC in particular — has ended and the 3-10 Patriots are headed toward their second-straight non-playoff season. Considering that New England hasn’t missed the playoffs in consecutive years since 1999 and 2000 (Belichick’s first season), it’s clear that changes must be made.
The big question is if Patriots owner Robert Kraft really has the nerve to fire the most successful coach in NFL history and, on a broader scale, maybe the most successful coach in major American professional sports history. Belichick — along with Tom Brady and a host of talented players, executives and coaches — from an occasional contender (under Bill Parcells) into a nearly two-decade-long dynasty.
Patriots NFL Team Rankings in the Crosshairs
Kraft and Belichick have been close for a long time, but with the Patriots toward the bottom of the NFL team rankings, and with the league’s worst-scoring offense and only questions at quarterback, it may be time for him to move on.
It seems unlikely that Kraft would make any change during the season, considering that it’s already the middle of December, but there are NFL betting lines up both for Belichick’s next team and for the Patriots’ next head coach. Sometimes, as they say, when there’s smoke, there’s fire, and Belichick is +900 — the third-highest odds — to be the next NFL coach fired this NFL season.
The Carolina Panthers (+250) — who already fired head coach Frank Reich in the middle of his first season — are currently the “favorites” to land Belichick should he choose to move on from New England or if New England chooses to move on from him. The Washington Commanders (+275), Los Angeles Chargers (+350) and Chicago Bears (+600) follow suit.
Carolina is currently the only team in the league with worse NFL results this year than the Patriots, and while the Panthers’ season has been an abject disaster, they do have a potential franchise quarterback in Bryce Young and some solid defensive pieces.
The Patriots have reportedly decided to part ways with Bill Belichick following this season. 🤯 pic.twitter.com/nLKuG4RVmo
— theScore (@theScore) December 12, 2023
You can be sure that Carolina would have to pay a hefty financial price to lure Belichick away, but a team with a rich owner in David Tepper and a need for stability could definitely benefit from his experience and stature around the league.
Washington seems likely to fire Ron Rivera (he’s -300 to be the next coach canned), and Belichick, who went to high school in Annapolis, Maryland, could welcome the chance to move back home while likely being complete control of personnel decisions. But, it will be a tall task to return the Commanders to contention in a tough NFC East despite persistent Bill Belichick rumors surrounding the team over the past few weeks.
Cleaning House With an Eye on Belichick
The Chargers just cleaned house, firing head coach Brandon Staley and general manager Tom Telesco, and they have tons of talent, so Los Angeles could be a good fit, assuming Belichick would consider moving out west. The Bears also have legitimate stars in place, but Chicago winning three of four — with a relatively easy schedule coming up — could save Matt Eberflus’ job.
All in all, though, it’s tough to prognosticate where Belichick could end up next just because it’s so unfathomable to see him coach for an NFL team that isn’t the Patriots after all of this success. Then again, though, the same could have been said for Tom Brady, who went to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers of all places and won another ring. Tampa Bay, by the way, is +800 to get Belichick next.
So, if Belichick does leave the Patriots, who could possibly take on the enormous burden of following his lead? Right now, if the Bill Belichick rumors are to be believed, two of his former players — both linebackers — are the odds-on favorites as his replacement.
Replacements To Be Looking At
First up is current Patriots inside linebackers coach Jerod Mayo (+200), who played his entire eight-year NFL career under Belichick, made two Pro Bowls and won a Super Bowl. He has been on staff in New England since 2019, albeit as just a positional coach, so the jump to head coach would be steep. But, he has interviewed for other head coaching gigs in previous cycles and is highly thought of.
Current Tennessee Titans head coach and former Patriot Mike Vrabel (+250) won three titles with New England and is an obvious fit. Vrabel’s Titans are on pace to miss the playoffs again, and it’s not a leap to say that he has been rumored to want to return to Foxborough. It helps when you’re a familiar face in the facility and have experienced much success.
Current Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh (+500) feels like a bit of a stretch, especially with his Wolverines in the College Football Playoff. But, if Michigan loses again and Harbaugh is maybe forced out for the Connor Stalions saga, the Patriots would be a great landing spot for him to return to the NFL ranks.
Commanders offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy and Eagles offensive coordinator Brian Johnson (both +900) are other options but without the Patriots’ pedigree, they seem like stretches.
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