There are some pretty evenly-matched NFL games on tap this weekend. That’s typically a good thing for underdog bettors, who can usually find a team or two worth backing. Those who bet on football underdogs will likely take the point spread with a little thrown on the moneyline. It’s always a good feeling to win more than you risk, so you can’t find fault with their betting method. We’ll look at a couple of the NFL Week 10 Upset & Underdog possibilities here and have a couple of NFL free picks.
Day/Time:Sunday, November 12, 4:05 pm ET
Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
Line: Detroit -3 | Total: 48.5
The Detroit Lions (6-2) visit the Los Angeles Chargers (4-4) in what looks to be a decent interconference match-up. The Lions are playing well, winning four of their last five, to move to 6-2 and a 1.5-game lead over Minnesota in the NFC North. The Chargers have won their previous two games to get back to .500. Los Angeles is battling for a wild card berth, as 7-2 Kansas City will be tough to catch.
The Lions are averaging 25.0 points per game against teams, allowing 20.2 points. The running game has been pretty efficient, with Detroit averaging 131.4 yards on the ground. The Lions are passing for 259.3 yards per game and 7.1 yards per pass attempt. The Lions are gaining 5.8 yards per play against teams that allow 5.2 yards, so the offense is moving the ball.
Detroit isn’t bad defensively, allowing 20.6 points to teams averaging 20.4 points. The Lions have done a pretty decent job against the run, allowing 3.7 yards per rush. The Lions have been relatively average against the pass, holding teams to 6.3 yards per attempt.
The Chargers are coming off the Monday night game, while the Lions are off a bye, so Detroit gets the rest advantage. But the Chargers are 10-5 ATS the past 2+ seasons. Detroit is just 2-5-1 on the over under for NFL games this season, meaning some close, low-scoring games. The Chargers lost by two at home to Miami and by three points at home to Dallas.
The Chargers are averaging 25.1 points per game on the year against teams allowing 20.9 points, so the two offenses are pretty comparable. Los Angeles doesn’t move the ball quite as well as Detroit, but has taken advantage of its opportunities better.
The Chargers’ defense is allowing 21.8 points to teams averaging 22.2 points, not not difference between the teams there, either. Los Angeles is allowing 286 passing yards per game. But the three games in which it allowed more than 300 passing yards were against Kansas City, Miami and Minnesota, three NFL teams that can throw the ball.
The Chargers have a bit of NFL Week 10 Upset & Underdog potential, but the point spread is probably the safest bet considering the team’s 10-5 ATS record as an underdog.
Day/Time:Sunday, November 12, 1:00 pm ET
Location: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Maryland
Line: Baltimore -6.5 | Total: 38
The Cleveland Browns (5-3) visit the Baltimore Ravens (7-2) in a rematch of their Oct. 1 game. With Deshaun Watson on the sidelines, the Ravens thumped Cleveland 28-3 on the road. Cleveland was held to 166 yards of total offense and the game was over at halftime when Baltimore led 21-3.
Now the teams meet in Baltimore and the Browns are in their preferred role as an underdog of more than 3 points, where they’ve gone 11-7-1 ATS since 2020. Cleveland’s offense is better than average with Watson, who really hasn’t played all that well. He has just six TD passes in five games and just one rushing touchdown. Both the Browns and Ravens are rarities in the NFL in that they’ve each rushed the ball more than they’ve thrown.
Cleveland’s defense is solid, allowing 17.4 points per game and it’s held four teams to season lows in total yardage. The Browns do give up a few more points than they should considering the yardage allowed. But part of that is due to an offense that is -4 in turnovers for the football season, with much of that occurring when Watson was sidelines with an injury.
The Ravens are on a roll, having won four straight and covering the point spread in three of those games. Baltimore is scoring 26.6 points per game and allowing 13.8. But Baltimore hasn’t been a very good home favorite with Lamar Jackson, going just 13-21 ATS.
It might be a bit much to ask a 6.5-point underdog to pull off the outright upset, but it’s not out of the question. But the Browns deserve consideration as one of your NFL Week 10 Upset & Underdog selections. It’s a role that has suited them well in recent years and could once again.