NFL Divisional Round Teasers: Riding With the Hot Hands

Use 6-Point Teasers on These Red-Hot Teams

We don’t see why we shouldn’t “ride the hot hand” as they often do in sports. For our NFL Divisional Round teasers, we’re going with a pair of underdogs who are on a roll as they take on potentially rusty top seeds. And our third team is a favorite who is riding high after a big win at home. Using a six-point teaser, we have a strong chance at cashing this three-leg parlay.

Getting Houston at +9 against a notable playoff choker like Baltimore is a gift. We don’t care that Baltimore has the top-ranked defense and Lamar Jackson is the MVP frontrunner. He is 1-3 in the playoffs with three passing touchdowns against five picks. Head coach John Harbaugh is 2-5 in the playoffs since winning the Super Bowl.

Baltimore is a fraud until proven otherwise. And having, essentially, two bye weeks won’t help. Since 2012, favorites with a spread of -6.5 to -9.5 are only 13-29-0 against the spread (ATS). This is a 30.9% cover rate and a yucky number on top of Baltimore’s poor records on the field and on the betting lines.

Adding six points for Houston in this NFL Divisional Round teaser is hard to beat. Since 2012, teams that have won as an underdog in the playoffs have gone 21-14-0 ATS (60%) in their next game. Additionally, Houston is 4-1 ATS as a road underdog this season. Houston may shake the NFL divisional round predictions again. But for a safer measure, tease the Texans from +9 to +15.

If we like the Texans, we like the Packers. This is like the NFC version of Houston-Baltimore as you have the young star quarterback in Jordan Love going against the top seed coming off a bye. San Francisco has been a juggernaut so most squares pick them on their NFL playoff brackets. But they won’t win by 2+ touchdowns here.

The only playoff teams San Francisco has beaten by 14+ points are all gone from the NFL football schedule. Philadelphia finished the season 1-6 while Pittsburgh had a -20 point differential. The Cowboys got humiliated by Green Bay who outscored them 27-7 in the first half. This brings us to our next point.

Teams that had a bye in the playoffs, got outscored 6.1 to 5.1. This proves that teams with a rest week can come out slow and rusty. And that’s an issue against Green Bay, which averages 20 first-half points in its last four games. Green Bay does not have to win here. If we tease the Packers from +9.5 to +15.5, this is a lot of leeway.

The Lions may be favorites in their matchup. But this team always has the heart of an underdog. So we can trust them to stay hungry even against another team with chips on their shoulders. Detroit has scored 24 or more points in six of its last seven home games. The Lions won all six. And Tampa Bay’s defense can get exposed here.

Tampa shut out Carolina and held Green Bay to 20 points on the road. But before this, the Buccaneers gave up 24 or more points in its last five road games. They also gave up 400+ yards in four of these games. Our money is on Detroit to stay hot and outscore Tampa Bay. They complete our trio of NFL Divisional Round teasers. Tease the Lions from -6.5 to -0.5.

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